Published Sep 8, 2022
By the Numbers: Where the computers rank Michigan, Week 1
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Brandon Justice  •  Maize&BlueReview
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We're already inching closer to Week 2 in college football.

Various rankings come out each week, including the AP Poll and Coaches Poll.

In this weekly segment, we'll get away from human polls and go into the computers and see what the various analytical-based rankings had to say about Michigan after Week 1.

Editor's note: PFF did not release a top 25 this week

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ESPN FPI

What is FPI?

FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.

Rank: 5th

Previously: 6th

Notable rankings: Texas (7th), LSU (13th), Michigan State (15th), Penn State (16th), Hawaii (130th)

No. 5 Michigan jumped Notre Dame, who lost to No. 3 Ohio State and switched spots with U-M at No. 6.

Full rankings

ESPN SP+

What is SP+?

In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.

Rank: 4th

Previously: 6th

Michigan rose two spots in SP+, the first system to rank the Wolverines as a top 10 team in 2021, weeks ahead of the AP Poll. The Wolverines overtook No. 6 Oklahoma (previously 4th) and No. 5 Texas A&M (no change). Notre Dame opened at No. 7 and fell to 10th. Ohio State is also at No. 3 in SP+.

Notable ranking: Tennessee (8th), Wisconsin (9th), Michigan State (20th), Penn State (21st), Minnesota (28th), Iowa (41st), Hawaii (128th)

Full rankings

Sagarin/USA Today

What (who) is Sagarin?

Jeff Sagarin made a rating and predictive system, then named it after, well, himself! It's an excellent way to look at ratings and determine scores in games by how closely or not close two teams rank. Sometimes, it can predict closer games in lopsided matchups or blowouts in closer games on paper.

Rank: 8th

Previously: 9th

Notable rankings: Notre Dame (7th), Oklahoma State (10th), Wisconsin (11th), Texas (12th), Penn State (17th), Iowa (28th), Michigan State (38th), Hawaii (144th) -- Saragin also ranks FCS teams, meaning 14 of them are better than Hawaii.

The lowest of the low for Michigan after Week 1 came from Saragin, which ranks U-M lower than the AP or Coaches poll. Notre Dame (7th) along with Texas A&M, Clemson, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Georgia, and Alabama all ranked ahead of the Wolverines.

Michigan's lower number likely has to do with the competition level it played in Week 1, as schedule rank is a metric in the system. That's also why the Irish likely remain ahead of the Wolverines.

Full rankings

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