Column: McCarthy, a proven system, and the curious case of 10-0 Michigan
It's hard to argue with a 10-0 team, but that's become the Theme of the Week in Ann Arbor.
Have you ever waited to buy something because it was too expensive, saved up for it, finally got it, and asked yourself why you bought the shiny thing anyway?
In college football, 5-star prospects are, in a way, shiny things that you will either love or regret once you've had them for a while.
You will either love the value you got or grow to hate it.
Michigan football is known for its "no stars" identity -- they don't stargaze in recruiting, despite that being the popularized (and proven) way to win the sport's biggest prize.
You all know the story. Alabama recruits like maniacs and has for a decade-plus under Nick Saban. The same goes for Kirby Smart at Georgia, Ryan Day at Ohio State, and Dabo Swinney at Clemson.
But Michigan opts to stay in its lane, recruiting with a unique & often scrutinized approach that relies more on in-house evaluations & cultural fits than it does stars.
Will he fit in our scheme, and at what position? Will he fit in our culture? We can develop him as a player, but do we need to build his character?
These are not verbatim questions or hollow echoes from the meeting rooms inside Schembechler Hall. But it's undoubtedly the approach they're taking based on the evidence.
Michigan has had two five-stars in the last three recruiting cycles, including the ongoing 2023 class, according to a composite of all recruiting services. Ohio State has eight in the same timeframe.
It's worked at every position but quarterback, where Michigan's had more failures than successes during Harbaugh's tenure.
J.J. McCarthy was declared a four-star by Rivals & a 5-star by the composite. Regardless, his arrival in Ann Arbor had the same energy as Jim Harbaugh's return in 2015.
After several failed experiments at QB, McCarthy is Harbaugh's first legitimate blue-chip prospect at the position he played for his alma mater.
However, in his first season, here we are, wondering when we'll see the phenom we think he will be. Statistically, through 10 games, McCarthy is hardly better than Cade McNamara -- who he won the job over -- was a season ago.
2021 McNamara (14 starts): 210/327, 2,576 yards, 64.2% completion percentage, 7.9 yards per attempt, 15 TD, 6 INT
2022 McCarthy (9 starts): 147/213, 69% completion percentage, 1,744 yards, 8.2 YPA, 14 TD, 2 INT
Over his last four games, McCarthy is averaging 23 passing attempts. If he stays on that trajectory & Michigan finds a way to play four more games as it did in 2021, the former five-star would still finish with 21 fewer passing attempts than McNamara.
After the first eight weeks of the season, McCarthy was the most accurate passer in college football, holding the title for several consecutive weeks.
Now 10 games in, he's down to 12th, sitting at 101st in dropbacks among starting quarterbacks.
I don't compare McNamara & McCarthy's numbers to analyze who's better. It's clearly the guy who won the job, which makes you wonder why his usage is on pace to be less than who he beat out.
Still, behind the most feared rushing attack, led by the nation's best tailback in Blake Corum, Michigan, is 10-0, beating the life out of every opponent in its path.
How can a 10-0 team finish 11-1? Complacency.
The Wolverines need to get better in the passing game & they know it, but is it time for a panic button?
No, it's just time for fine-tuning.
The Wolverines need to give its 5-star QB a chance to get in a rhythm. Ronnie Bell said they need more "practice reps," but it's Week 11. It's not a practice problem. It's a game plan problem.
After Michigan ran the ball 44 times and passed it 17 (starters) against Nebraska, I asked Harbaugh in his post-game press conference if it's difficult for a QB to find a rhythm when he's hardly throwing the ball throughout the game.
"Yeah, that's valid."
It's like putting your pitcher in for the first inning, then asking him to close in the 9th.
But how can you tell a coach to change his game plan that's undefeated & undisputed with a +30.2 scoring margin?
Michigan is damned if they do & damned if they don't.
They didn't recruit McCarthy to be a system QB, but that's what they're forcing him to be, especially over the last several weeks. How can you blame them, though, when the downfield passing game consists of overthrows & receivers struggling to create separation?
But really, how can you blame them when Corum is finding paydirt two times or more per game?
After all, this isn't the last we'll see of No. 9 in Ann Arbor.
Lest we forget that McCarthy is 19 years old, and given how dynamic he is, everyone was worried about turnovers.
Well, he has two interceptions through 10 games, and whether it has lived up to the hype or not, he's under center for a team that's got a legitimate shot at a natty.
If the College Football Playoff started today with its top four teams, McCarthy would be six years younger than the oldest quarterback (Stetson Bennett, 25) & two years younger than the two others (CJ Stroud, Max Duggan, 21).
The "J.J. game" summoning circles haven't come to fruition yet, but his talent is evident & his character shines enough to likely make him a junior captain next season.
There is the conversation of "how will Michigan beat Ohio State if McCarthy has to beat them?" which sounds a lot like "how will Michigan beat Ohio State if McNamara has to beat them?"
What Michigan is doing right now is precisely what it did to Ohio State a year ago, and to them, winning ball games -- sexy or not -- is enough. Whether you disagree with it or not, they live by it.
That's not to say they're not adjusting & accounting for the recent struggles in the passing game. They're not monsters, running the ball 50 times a game to piss off armchair quarterbacks.
This is who Michigan is, and they love it because who doesn't love winning?
At 10-0, it's hard to argue with it, as much as we'd like to.
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