The early signing period has ended, and while Michigan has a couple big targets left on their board, this class is expected to finish lower than many expected for the back-to-back Big Ten Champions.

Michigan utilized the transfer portal in a way we hadn't seen, or frankly even thought they could. There are takes abound, that this was to offset the lower ranked 2023 class or that maybe Michigan has made a dramatic shift.

As always, the truth is somewhere in the middle.

For me, Michigan learned something after the 2021 season that I believe is a basis for what we have seen this year.

Last year, Michigan was led by its Joe Moore Award-winning offensive line. Three starters were returning, but they lost Andrew Vastardis at center and Andrew Steuber at right tackle.

They felt good about Karsen Barnhart and Trente Jones battling at RT. We saw this play out as both players spent time starting. Maybe they weren't as confident in Greg Crippen or Raheem Anderson quite yet at center, or they at least wanted competition.

So what does Michigan do? They go get the best center in the country in Olu Oluwatimi to plug and play. The offensive line doesn't miss a beat and wins the Joe Moore Award again in 2022.

Michigan's vision for recruiting since the coaching staff changes in 2021 has been less about star chasing and more about finding program fits, players that want to be at Michigan first and foremost. Michigan's greatest strength throughout Harbaugh's tenure has been with development. Hard to argue what this program has done with 3 and 4-star recruits, or kids that maybe other programs dinged for being too small, too much of a tweener, etc.

But you can't win championships with just those players. As we have seen this year with JJ McCarthy, Donovan Edwards, and Will Johnson all being huge factors. Development is essential, but you still need to pepper in some 5 stars.

I fully expect Michigan to recruit some higher-ranked players in 2024 and I don't think the transfer portal is about offsetting the lack of 5 stars this year.

It is about replacing guys heading to the NFL or transferring out on their own as well. Look at tight end. Luke Schoonmaker is going pro, Erick All won't return, and obviously Colston Loveland has become a future star, but Michigan needs some help there despite a couple of loaded classes of tight ends. So, go get a Big Ten-experienced tight end in AJ Barner.

The offensive line is losing Ryan Hayes and Olu for sure, likely or possibly Zak Zinter and Trevor Keegan. There is tons of depth there, you feel good about guys, but you win with the best offensive line in football. Is there enough experience to have that again in 2023? Do you simply rely on all those guys filling the next man up mantra?

No, you have to replace NFL talent. You go get Ladarius Henderson, a multi-year starter that can play in multiple spots on the line, a future NFL Draft pick. You go get Drake Nugent, an experienced center who at worst adds solid depth. Same with Myles Hinton, a prospect you know, who fits the program well, who will compete and possibly start or at worst add quality depth. If your guys on the roster beat those guys, then great, they are ready, but you don't NEED them to.

When development doesn't go to plan or depth doesn't fill out the way you expected? Like at linebacker, Kalel Mullings is a better fit at RB, you might lose Michael Barrett, some other guys haven't developed as you hoped. Go get Nebraska's stud freshman LB, Ernest Hausmann.

Michigan doesn't have to hammer the portal every year, but it's great to know they can. They won't miss on big players like they did this year every year either. Despite the obsession with NIL, this year was likely as much about Harbaugh interviewing with the Vikings and losing both coordinators.

Look at the final team rankings, it's all the same programs. Other than Miami and Oregon, the same programs are paying the same money, they are just calling it NIL. The money isn't as big as people think, and there are already lots of broken promises stories happening behind the scene.

Michigan is working to improve NIL next year, but they will never be in the pay-for-play game. We are in the wild west, but it won't stay this way. Michigan has a long-term play and may be better positioned than most realize.

High school recruiting will always be a crap shoot, but you can still feel confident in your scouting and your coaching. Being a factor in the portal is so important because you can get experienced players to fill your needs instead of a freshman. You still need stud recruits, and I think Michigan will find the perfect balance.

Overall, this class is very similar to the 2018 class that was the foundation for the back-to-back Big Ten Championship teams. You could now argue it has a good chance to be better when you factor in the transfer portal additions.
Perfect? No.
Doom scenario? No.
Really good and exciting for the future? Absolutely.

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