ESPN's FPI Updates Michigan's Projected Outlook After Bye Week
The Michigan Wolverines and much of the Big Ten were idle on Saturday, but plenty of games were still played and the advanced numbers have been updated as a result.
ESPN updated its Football Power Index (FPI) following the completion of Saturday's games. FPI projects a 10.4-1.9 record for the Wolverines and a positive chance to win each of its remaining games except for one. FPI ranks Michigan fifth in the country and gives them a 20% chance of winning the Big Ten and a 6.1% chance of going undefeated.
Here's a closer look at what FPI is saying about the road so far and Michigan's remaining outlook after Week 7.
The Story So Far
Sept. 4 vs. Western Michigan, 47-14 W (1-0)
Sept. 11 vs. Washington, 31-10 W (2-0)
Sept. 18 vs. Northern Illinois, 63-10 W (3-0)
Sept. 25 vs Rutgers, 20-13 W (4-0, 1-0 B1G)
Oct. 2 at Wisconsin, 38-17 W (5-0, 2-0 B1G)
Oct. 9 at Nebraska, 32-29 W (6-0, 3-0 B1G)
Here's what's next for the Wolverines.
Oct. 23 vs. Northwestern, 95.1% chance of victory
Northwestern might not be dead yet this season, as the Wildcats beat Rutgers on Saturday afternoon by a score of 21-7 in Evanston. The Wolverines might have some bye-week rust to shake off, but there still is not much of a reason to think Saturday will be more than a tuneup game.
Oct. 30 at Michigan State, 53.7% chance of victory
MSU looked mortal on Saturday in a 20-15 win at Indiana heading into its bye week. This guaranteed that the Spartans will be undefeated (7-0) when Michigan comes to town on Oct. 30. One more Wolverine win will set up an epic rivalry showdown on rivalry weekend.
Nov. 6 vs. Indiana, 89% chance of victory
Indiana does not have much to play for at 2-4 on the season but showed Saturday in a loss to MSU that it still has the ingredients to be a pain in the butt. The game result should not be in question for Michigan, but the Hoosiers will have them on high alert.
Nov. 13 at Penn State, 50.5% chance of victory
Penn State was off this week and is likely kicking itself for letting Iowa win at Kinnick last weekend. The injury status of starting quarterback Sean Clifford remains in question and could turn how people view this game for the Wolverines.
Nov. 20 at Maryland, 87.8% chance of victory
Maryland was off this week after a pair of losses to Iowa and Ohio State, respectively. This could be a trap game for Michigan in that it might be a little closer than they hope, but there's no reason they should not get by the Terrapins to get themselves ready for The Game.
Nov. 27 vs. Ohio State, 41.8% chance of victory
OSU was idle on Saturday, which is something Michigan fans hope slows down the momentum they have built over the last few weeks. The Buckeyes seem to have put their early-season woes behind them and will be the team to beat in the Big Ten East. Michigan strives to have something to say about that.
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