Published Sep 9, 2022
Eyes on the Enemy: Hawaii
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Brandon Justice  •  Maize&BlueReview
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Eyes on the Enemy is MBR's weekly preview of Michigan's upcoming opponent.

And just like that, it's Week 2.

The Wolverines host Hawaii on Saturday night, but in Michigan's world, it's all about the quarterback competition. The Rainbow Warriors should be nothing more than a sparring match for J.J. McCarthy, who's looking to lock up the starting job with a lights-out performance.

Still, Hawaii (0-2) is an opponent and a football team with schemes and a roster to preview, even if this team is exactly what you expect it to be.

Let's dive in.


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The Basics

Head coach: Tim Chang

Offensive scheme: Run 'n Shoot

Defensive scheme: Multiple

2021 record: 6-7

2022 record: 0-2

After opening the season with two games at home, the new-look Tim Chang Hawaii football team is 0-2 with a combined score of 27-112.

The two teams the Rainbow Warriors faced? Vanderbilt (91st SP+) and Western Kentucky (64th).

Chang's group, which lost a few transfers and added 10 in the winter and spring, heads to the opposite side of the country to face Michigan in Ann Arbor.

The Wolverines don't often have night games, but this will be one of them. With kickoff set for 8 PM, it'll feel like 2 PM to the visitors. Which is better than noon, the time they played in 2016 when Hawaii last visited.

Hawaii's SP+ ranking is 128th after two weeks. Only 131 teams play in the FBS division. Perhaps worse, Hawaii's defense ranks 130th as it prepares to face an offense that, with McCarthy in it, is tough to prepare for with no film on what the offense looks like with him as a quarterback rather than a gadget in run plays.

Hawaii offense

The defense is worse, but Hawaii's offense still ranks 115th in the country per SP+.

Among the 97 FBS teams who faced another FBS team at least once in weeks 0 and 1, Hawaii has the 73rd-best rushing attack, averaging 101.5 yards per game.

Its passing offense ranks 41st on the same scale, averaging 258 passing yards per game.

Those yards haven't equaled points, and part of that is due to starting quarterback Brayden Schager throwing four interceptions against Western Kentucky, despite 230 yards on 33 attempts. He didn't throw a touchdown and finished with a QBR of 14.2.

Once Schager's backup, Joey Yellen, who came in and went 4-of-11 for 36 yards and a pick against WKU, will start against Michigan. Schager has been banged up, and despite being medically cleared, Yellen, Kenny Pickett's backup at Pitt, will get the nod at the Big House.

No matter who's under center, the passing offense numbers don't tell the whole story despite the yardage ranking in the top 50. Hawaii only averages 13.5 points per game -- less than two touchdowns -- which ranks 79th out of the 97 teams who faced an FBS team.

Hawaii's offense vs. Michigan's defense

Hawaii allowed five sacks total in its first two games.

Not bad, but the turnovers, man. The offense fumbled the ball, threw five interceptions, and gave up a defensive touchdown against Western Kentucky. Against Vandy, they didn't throw a pick but running back Dedrick Parson lost two fumbles.

Meanwhile, Michigan scored two defensive touchdowns last week.

Hawaii has no help from its passing game to challenge its ferocious front that included a D-line room capable and unafraid to go 11 deep in the first half.

While the O-line for Hawaii isn't abysmal, it's pesky at best and won't fight off the front we saw in Ann Arbor last Saturday.

Expect the Wolverines to get in the backfield. Against WKU, Hawaii allowed nearly 10 tackles for loss and let Vanderbilt get in for three sacks.

Facing a defense unequivocally better than the first two on the schedule, Hawaii should have an extremely tough day keeping the ball secure and advancing it past the sticks.

Colorado State's offensive line was worse than Hawaii's -- but that's about it. Expect something similar or worse this week from the opposition's offense.

Hawaii defense

Where do we begin?

The Rainbow Warrior defense allows 506 yards per game through two games. The only team on Michigan's schedule worse is Nebraska (528 yards per game).

But wait, there's more.

It's the worst rushing defense left on Michigan''s schedule, allowing over 272 yards per game so far, which, like many Week 2 metrics, doesn't tell the whole story.

Hawaii's defense allowed Vanderbilt to score 63 points -- the same Vandy team it lost to 63-10 just beat Elon 42-31. Last year's Vandy team didn't score more than 30 points all season. The lone game Vandy hit the 30-mark came against UConn, who it beat by two points.

While all the focus is on J.J. McCarthy, and rightfully so, if Michigan were scheming this game against an equal opponent, the game plan would look similar to last year's Washington game.

Vandy ran for 404 yards on the ground along with five touchdowns while playing a *night game* at Hawaii in which it was past midnight for the Commodores.

It gets worse.

Western Kentucky didn't run for 500 -- only 141 -- but it still found the end zone three times on the ground while passing for 271 yards and three touchdowns. Hawaii allowed the seventh touchdown via a pick-six.

So, essentially, Hawaii is bad at covering the pass and the run against two teams who aren't necessarily great at either.

And in steps Michigan ...


Hawaii's offense vs. Michigan's defense

Well, then.

Tim Chang, I'm sorry; Hawaii football fans, look away.

If Michigan's defense can't score first ... the offense, while at full go, will move the ball at will and very well may put up 40 points before halftime.

There's a reason Vegas has Michigan as a 52-point favorite with a 59.5-point team total and a 67-point game total. That means Vegas predicts Michigan to win 60-7, somewhere around there.

And it's hard to argue their point.

With McCarthy in, even if Michigan goes full-on bully ball and Harbaugh wants 65 run plays, it might still eclipse 60.

McCarthy is a lethal run threat. You add in Blake Corum, Donovan Edwards, A.J. Henning, and Roman Wilson as ball carriers, and the formula is too much for Hawaii to handle.

The Hawaii front was in four-man against Vandy but, after getting gashed, switched to a three-man look against WKU. The rushing yards went down, but it was still a total blowout on both sides of the ball.

Shockingly, Hawaii has zero sacks, along with only one turnover.

Expect Michigan to counter a three-man front with a ton of RPO looks. The quick-release throws from McCarthy should look similar to the quick-release stuff WKU drew up to counter the edge pressure from a three-man front.

Numbers, metrics, and historical data aside, Michigan couldn't have drawn up a better and more forgiving matchup for McCarthy to make his debut than against this defense that allows points, doesn't get to the quarterback, and doesn't force turnovers.

If the staff wants McCarthy to have a QB1 type of day -- he shouldn't have a challenge if the scheme calls for it.

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