Michigan football plays Michigan State on Saturday if you didn't know already.

And what better way to celebrate the beginning of the second half of this season?

Two teams who despise each other will take out a year's worth of tension on one another. The long wait after last season's 37-33 win for the Spartans is over.

Will Mel Tucker win his third in a row over the Wolverines, or does Jim Harbaugh right another wrong?

Let's break it down.

The noise surrounding the rivalry between these two teams clouds over the fact VEgas projects a three-possession Michigan win.

Numbers don't lie.

Michigan is better in points per game, offensive yards, defensive yards, time of possession, red zone efficiency, kicking, and penalties.

The Wolverines have every edge in the book against an arch nemesis in Tucker, who had Harbaugh's number in the first two affairs.

If you think he has hands full this year, look no further than 2020, when Tucker's Spartans walked into Michigan stadium as 20-point underdogs and walked out as outright winners.

Of course, this Michigan team is far different than that one, and the same applies to MSU.

That's the beauty of this game -- nothing before it matters, only what happens between the first & last whistle on one Saturday a year, every year.

As for this year's edition of The Battle for Paul Bunyan...

Payton Thorne remains the starter for the Spartans & despite some early struggles that earned him backlash, he's coming off his best game of the season against Wisconsin.

It turns out that when he has his star wideout, Jaylen Reed, healthy, Thorne plays better. But don't count out Keon Coleman, who made an incredible catch in overtime against the Badgers and is another strong weapon through the air for the Spartans.

The O-Line is doing its job with a Pass Block Grade that ranks 14th nationally (PFF) & a 13th-best Run Block Grade.

If the Spartans allow pressure on Thorne, he has 1 TD to 4 interceptions under pressure & the 15th-most (4) turnover-worthy plays when blitzed. His 59.6% completion percentage when blitzed is 61st among qualifying starting QBs.

Despite a jolt of success offensively in recent weeks, the Spartans average 106 rushing yards per game (115th) & 27 points per game (77th).

Let's start with what can go right for the Spartans offensively.

Look, Michigan is primed to record another historic season of defensive production & as referenced above, things haven't been peachy for this MSU offense.

But, if you keep up with this site, then you know I've been harping on the U-M linebackers' struggles to defend the pass.

Michigan's best-graded LB in coverage is Michael Barrett, whose 62.7 Coverage Grade is 192nd among qualifying linebackers. The MIKE, Junior Colson (59.1), is 234th.

If MSU can get Reed & Coleman underneath, then chipping away & moving chains is attainable.

The Spartans lived & died by the deep ball in its triumphant 2020 road win, but against a U-M defense that is dominant against the run, is there any chance MSU can run any effective play-action?

One rule in college football that never goes away is setting up the pass with the run.

I don't see MSU's running backs playing a role against U-M. The highest-graded back in the room is Jarek Broussard (78.0), 122nd in the country. Jalen Berger, the starter, is 380th (67.9).

It's hard to find ways for this MSU offense to be methodical against Michigan unless it's primarily through the air.

Thorne has the weapons -- but can a one-trick pony be enough? I don't think so.

Let's start with the good.

Michigan State is the 13th-best tackling team in college football, according to PFF.

Despite the numbers I'm about to throw at you, I believe MSU's D-Line is good. However, PFF grades Simeon Barrow (70.2) the highest at 138th.

Elsewhere, SP+ ranks MSU's D 58th.

Now for the bad.

PFF grades the Spartans 83rd against the run, 113th against the pass, and 80th in pass rush.

It's worth noting that this defense got a lot healthier recently, specifically by getting Jacob Slade & Xavier Henderson back. This isn't the same MSU team that let Taulia Tagovailoa have a field day a month ago -- but Graham Mertz is a lot worse than McCarthy.

To shorten the sample size & get more recent with our data, against the Badgers, the MSU D held Wiscy to 283 total yards of offense.

Can they play inspired against one of the most efficient offenses this rivalry has seen in?

Michigan's offense is 9th by SP+ with the 2nd-best Run Grade (and the highest-graded RB in Blake Corum) & QB J.J. McCarthy is operating with a 39th-best Pass Grade (79.1).

While MSU's strength is in its D-Line, the unit ranks 83rd against the run with abysmal pass rush efforts that grade 80th.

Still, against Wisconsin -- a team that prided itself on running the ball and destroyed Purdue a week ago -- MSU shut down its identity.

Lucky for the Spartans, the Badgers can't rely on their QB to run the offense. Michigan has a guy for that.

Another week goes by & McCarthy (77.1%) is once again the most accurate QB in college football -- albeit with the 106th-most attempts.

The sophomore is no secret & his undeniable talent makes for an assumed iinevitablebreakout. We keep saying, "this is the week," only for Corum & Donovan Edwards to run down the opponent's throat weekly.

If MSU sells out on the run, JJ has the weapons -- with WR Ronnie Bell (35 catches on 45 targets), WR Roman Wilson (10.5 yards after the catch per reception), and TE Luke Schoonmaker (82.1% reception rate) -- to exploit the Spartans' 113th-best coverage unit.

It sounds like a simple "Michigan will win by ___."

But Paul Bunyan always has his crystal ball working.

Only a sleep away from finding out what's in store for this season's edition of the Battle for Paul.

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