6/3/2022 baseball Edit

Full preview: Michigan baseball vs. Oregon at NCAA Regional

Brandon Justice • Maize&BlueReview

Senior Editor

Senior Editor covering Michigan athletics at-large for The Maize & Blue Review on the Rivals network. Follow my betting coverage on The Wolverine Den. Trying to be more like Ted Lasso. 25.

Michigan baseball is playing Oregon in the first game of the NCAA Tournament Regional after winning the Big Ten Tournament. The first pitch is set for Friday at 7 PM on ESPNU.

Following a disappointing regular season that saw them finish fifth in the conference, the Wolverines are in the playoffs despite their regular-season struggles, now riding a wave of momentum following a conference tournament run that saw them knock off the top four seeds.

The other two teams in the region are No 7/No.18** Louisville and Southeast Missouri State.

** (D1Baseball ranking)/(RPI ranking)

What are Michigan's chances in the region?

No matter what region it ended up in, Michigan would not be a favorite. This team is not supposed to be here after their underwhelming regular season. To secure a spot in the Big Ten Tournament, they had to win a series against No. 2 Rutgers in the final weekend before inevitably beating them again a week later to win the Big Ten Tournament.

Now, they're suddenly in the NCAA Tournament with nothing to lose, and a team with nothing to lose is as dangerous as any in a playoff format.

One gigantic reason the Wolverines made the 2019 CWS run was its commanding, effective rotation. Michigan doesn't have that equipped with this team. It's an offensive team -- college baseball is pretty offensive as a whole -- and it will have to win games by scoring a surplus of runs.

Michigan scored double-digit numbers in three different games in the Big Ten Tournament. They didn't score double-digit numbers in two games, which they lost to Iowa, 3-7, and narrowly beat Illinois, 5-4.

The teams in this region are better than both of those teams, and every team in the conference besides Maryland, so to win, it's going to have to maximize separation in early and middle innings and be comfortable allowing 7-or-8 runs and still winning the game.

As for what it's up against, all three teams are offense-heavy, which will be interesting to see if it plays into Michigan's hand or the opposite. It could go either way.

Either these teams will play the same style as U-M, and it'll be a slugfest, or Michigan's arms will continue taking small steps forward. Can they keep up?

Before the conference tournament, Michigan's pitchers were giving up around seven runs per game. However, they gave up five runs per game in the tournament, allowing 25 runs across the five consecutive games.

If the pitching staff continues taking baby steps, holding the other team to 5-to-7 runs rather than 10-plus, then Michigan has a chance against anyone.

The Wolverines are 22-12 in games where the other team scores nine runs or less. Nine is a large number to use for that sample, but it shows how loud these blue bats can be. To comfortably allow six-plus runs and still feel like you can win is a unique mindset and Michigan, realistically, can use that as an advantage. It’s been forced to score high to win games all year.

Where that gets complicated is if this rotation’s slight momentum halts, these are the offenses that will halt it. All four teams hit the ball around. The Louisville region boils down to who can minimize the opponent's offense and execute timely hitting enough to win a couple of ball games.

Despite this pitching staff not being the same as the team that made the CWS run, this is still an Eric Bakich-coached team that will be as aggressive as any team in the tournament on the basepath. In the Big Ten Tournament final, Bakich called a double-suicide squeeze with runners on 2nd & 3rd and cleanly scored both.

That's magic.

Can they keep finding that Bakich magic?

Keys to Michigan vs. Oregon

Michigan's arms vs. Oregon's offense

Michigan's arms are its weakness, with an ERA ranking 236th, which isn't shocking considering the rotation allows 6.81 runs per nine innings. However, they got better in the tournament, and if they can be close to that good or better, then the 'Wolves have a chance. Oregon's offense isn't as prolific as Michigan's, but it's loud. The bats will be booming against the Wolverines' below-average Big Ten staff that is unequivocally weaker than the PAC-12 arms they've seen. The Ducks have an exceptional team batting average that is over .300. However, batting average can be misleading in a game where scoring runs is the most critical metric. Oregon is 54th in runs scored but 18th in BA. The Ducks shouldn't punish the Wolverines' arms in the power department, but if it does, it'll be big-bat ML Draft prospect, Anthony Hall. Read my full Oregon scouting report for the full breakdown.

Can Michigan's prolific offense be the sneaky mismatch?

There's no questioning Eric Bakich's team offense, something he's excellent at building from fall ball to the spring and executing at a high level in the postseason. Michigan scored 15, 13, and 10 runs against the top three seeds in the Big Ten Tournament. It lost games during the regular season where it scored 12 and 10 runs and narrowly won several games with high scoring, including a 16-13 win over Ohio State. Oregon's pitching staff throws to contact. They have low strikeout rates, but they allow less than five runs per game, ranking 55th in ERA. Oregon's arms rank 196th in strikeouts per nine, so they won't focus on creating swings and misses. U-M's Jimmy Obertop, Ted Burton, and Joe Stewart are suspect to striking out, so avoiding a strikeout-heavy pitching staff helps. Michigan has a bat-to-ball, unselfish team approach at the plate with power bats filling the beef of the order. That can be an X-Factor type of mismatch in a game like this.

Other notes:

- Michigan has an advantage on the basepath with far more stolen bases than Oregon.

- Oregon's fielding percentage is the 18th-best in college baseball.

- Michigan's offense has the 11th-most doubles and 39th-most homers in college baseball.

- Both pitching staffs get erratic. Oregon ranks 162nd in walks per nine innings (4.53), and Michigan ranks 218th (5.02). U-M has also hit the 21st most batters.

- Both programs lost in the regional last season. Oregon was ranked No. 14 and eliminated by LSU.

- Oregon has a series win at No. 2 Stanford, the only team to do that this season.

What they're saying

"Our offense is very balanced, and it's very dynamic because it's a combination of speed and power. You got two really good table setters at the top in Clark Elliott and Joe Stewart, and then obviously the guys in the middle. Very good run-producing offense. Balanced line up 1-through-9, different types of weapons with the run game and with the power game. A lot of guys with double-digit home runs, or close to it, and a lot of doubles, but our offense has been the bright spot all year. They've been very consistent, and even if one or two guys don't have a good night, there are six or seven guys to pick them up." -- Head Coach Eric Bakich

"We're just going to treat this the way we got here, which was the next game is the only game of the week we're playing. We feel like we got house money." -- Bakich

"Coach Bakich is a personal friend of mine and a very good coach. They're going to have two left-handed and two right-handed starters to choose from. Very balanced club. They like to run the bases aggressively. Pulled off a double-squeeze in the conference tournament. Coach Bakich is a person that's going to have his team well prepared, so our job is to worry about us to get our team prepared for a very competitive Michigan team." -- Oregon head coach Mark Wasikowski

Predictions

Oregon has played exceptionally well when the lights are on against good teams (series wins over Stanford, Arizona, and Gonzaga). Still, the Ducks dropped a series to Oregon State (5 games) and UCLA (three), along with bad losses to Washington State (lost two of three) and, most recently, a 4-2 loss to 8th-place Arizona State that knocked them out of the PAC-12 tournament. As the four-seed, Oregon went 0-2, losing to fifth-seed Arizona on top of ASU. The Ducks are talented with an offense that sprays the ball and a program that is methodical in its approach. Momentum or not, Oregon is perceived as the better team entering Friday.

Michigan comes in with quite the opposite story. The Wolverines are only in the tournament because of their conference tournament run. Already, this team has exceeded expectations by winning the Big Ten. While Michigan expects to make the tournament year in and year out under Bakich, a disappointing regular season suggested the season was over. However, a miraculous postseason run brings Michigan back to the tournament. U-M is hot off winning four-of-five in the conference tournament, including a win over No. 12 Maryland (RPI No. 9), who it is 2-3 against this season. Michigan might not have the record to suggest they have a shot, but their offense gives them a shot at anything and everything.

This game is challenging but fun to call. It's truly a battle of two different beasts. Michigan's power bats and organized chaos on the basepath versus Oregon's old-school pitch to contact, clean defense approach. On the other side, Oregon's efficient offense faces Michigan's extremely young and well below-average group of arms that overperformed in the BTT compared to the miserable regular season.

The X-Factor is Oregon's approach on the mound. They're going to pitch to contact, and I think Michigan will barrel it up. It's the most sizable mismatch in this game despite all eyes being on Michigan's arms vs. Oregon's efficient but not overly productive rotation.

Michigan manufactures and moves runners aggressively, which will do or die certain moments of this game. I'm siding with "do" rather than "die" and taking Bakich's style that is most successful in a playoff format.

Prediction: Michigan 11, Oregon 7

Staff predictions

Josh Henschke: Michigan, 10-5

Brock Heilig: Michigan, 11-8

Trevor McCue: Michigan, 6-4