Heavy Money Backing Underdog Michigan State at Michigan
The underdog in this year's battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy is drawing heavy action from early bettors.
No. 5 Michigan (7-0, 4-0) & Michigan State (3-4, 1-3) will clash for their annual in-state rivalry on Saturday at 7:30 PM inside the Big House.
After the spread opened between 21.5 & 22.5, it briefly shot out to 23 and has since come down to 21.5 with 73% of bets & 94% of the money on the Spartans to cover in Ann Arbor, yet the trends strongly favor U-M.
According to Covers, Michigan State is 0-4 against the spread on the road & against teams with winning records, and the Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Every metric can be thrown out the door in rivalry games, though. Jim Harbaugh said it himself at his weekly press conference.
After all, Mel Tucker is 2-0 against Harbaugh with a win in Ann Arbor & East Lansing.
Still, some in the industry are projecting Michigan as a 25.5-point favorite.
ESPN SP+ lists Michigan as a 19-point favorite on a neutral field, making them a 22-point favorite at home.
If you're wondering how to monitor this line closely, pay attention to the key numbers.
At 21.5, Michigan is nearing a drop to 20.5, a significant number in betting because the number is below 21, a common margin of victory. A 21-point win for the Wolverines would hand 20.5 bettors a loss, while 21.5 bettors win.
One point can be the difference between a win & loss.
The same can be said for 23.5, a blocker between 23 & 24, another common margin of victory in college football.
Michigan crept up to 23.5 but hasn't come close to plummeting to 20.5 yet.
Wherever that line settles will be telling.
For now, a monstrous amount of bettors see value in the Spartans.
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