Expectations for Michigan lowered after the Big Ten released its third 2020 schedule on Saturday.

Why? The conference handed the Wolverines the toughest schedule in the Big Ten East. Each Big Ten team was assigned two set non-divisional opponents. Some were allotted teams like Purdue and Illinois. Michigan? Minnesota and Wisconsin, the two best teams in the Big Ten West who each had 10-plus win records last season. As a result, half of the Wolverines’ eight games are against the AP preseason top 20.

This has caused Michigan’s projected wins in 2020 to tumble. SP+ calculated that Michigan had the biggest drop in expected win percentage in the Big Ten East and projects that Michigan will win just 4.3 of its first eight games. FPI projects that the Wolverines will win just 4.2 of their first seven contests, and although FPI does not provide their win probability at Ohio State in The Game, it is safe to presume that it is slim.

Therefore, these two algorithms predict that Michigan may barely muster a .500 record this season.

Yet it feels like these algorithms are now underestimating how Michigan should perform in 2020.