Michigan faces two opponents this weekend. There’s Maryland, of course, and everything they bring to the table, particularly on offense. Then there’s focus, which has to stay on Maryland and not drift to the following weekend’s marquee matchup with stakes befitting one of the greatest rivalries in sport against Ohio State.
For their part, Michigan’s players and staff have said all the right things about this weekend’s contest. “They got a great scheme,” Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh said. Between his press conference and radio show Monday, Harbaugh talked multiple times about Maryland’s quarterback and seemed to be genuinely impressed with him.
“Taulia (Tagovailoa) is a dynamic thrower. I mean, he is--it's fun to watch. We've been watching it on crossover games. We watch it in the quarterback room a lot, we watch the opponent we're about to play and he just deals it. It has been fun to watch up to this point. Now we gotta defend it. He's got really talented receivers. A couple of them got hurt but others are stepping in and it's a really good passing game.”
Michigan offensive coordinator Josh Gattis sees a defense that plays a style Michigan doesn’t have much experience with this season. “Well, this week, we’re gonna have a tremendous challenge, just all the man coverage that we go against, so these next few weeks we’ll see a ton of man coverage which we haven’t quite seen throughout the year,” he said. “That’s an area where Maryland really excels. And so we’re gonna have to win some one-on-one battles, we’re gonna have to win with details, releases, ball placement, accuracy and all that deal.”
There will be challenges for each side of the ball, but what matchups might determine the game? Read on for three different varieties: Michigan strength vs. Maryland strength, Michigan neutral vs. Maryland weakness, and Michigan strength vs. Maryland weakness.
Michigan’s corners vs. Tagovailoa’s arm
It’s clear from what Harbaugh and the rest of the staff have said that they respect what Maryland quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa can do with the ball in his hands, and Pro Football Focus helps quantify why that is. His PFF offense grade is 89.1, though his game-by-game numbers have dipped a bit as the competition has gotten stiffer; his offense scores against Penn State and Michigan State were 70.1 and 66.7, respectively. Here’s where his numbers get really interesting: on passes of 10-19 yards his passing score is 91.7, and on passes of 20+ yards his grade is 93.2. Tagovailoa does have five interceptions on throws over 20 yards, but PFF has him for only four turnover-worthy plays on those throws, so there’s a bit of bad luck involved. He also airs it out often, and yet just 7% of those throws were marked as turnover-worthy plays by PFF.
He can sling it, but he does most of his work in the short game. Whether that’s by design or because of personnel (or a little of both) is an open question, but 20% of his throws are to the short middle of the field and a whopping 25.1% of his throws are in the center and behind the line of scrimmage. Somehow he has three touchdown passes on that type of throw, too.
A fair question here is whether he will be able to get any good looks at deep shots given Michigan’s secondary. Cornerback DJ Turner has thrived with additional playing time, and fellow corner Vincent Gray has had a turnaround season. Turner has allowed receptions on 35.7% of the 28 throws targeting him, while Gray has allowed receptions on 62.8% of the 43 throws targeting him. Turner is allowing 7.0 yards per reception while Gray is allowing 9.9. We also need to consider Michigan’s safety tandem of Brad Hawkins (83.0 coverage grade) and Dax Hill (79.8 coverage grade). If coverage or habit or playcalling force Tagovailoa into his more characteristic short throws (particularly those behind the line), the edge goes to Michigan; run defense scores are worth examining on throws in the backfield, and only Turner has a below average score this season.
Michigan’s receivers vs. Maryland’s cornerbacks
What would have been good preparation for Ohio State early in the season now looks like a bit of an oddball, one-off type of predominant coverage as Ohio State has shifted from Cover 1 man to more zone principles. Gattis’ comments above indicate what he’s looking for, and that’s a lot of man coverage from Maryland’s secondary. Pressing Michigan’s receivers at the line of scrimmage will test their attention to detail, as it will take good footwork and handwork to fight through the contact and execute a route properly.
That said, Maryland’s corners aren’t elite. Tarheeb Still is better than his 55.4 coverage grade indicates, as it’s being weighed down by an abysmal Ohio State game (28.4 coverage), but he has allowed receptions on 59.4% of 64 targets for an average of 14.2 yards per reception. Fellow corner Jakorian Bennett has allowed receptions on 52.9% of targets for an average of 14.1 yards per reception. And those are Maryland’s two most frequently used corners. Maryland safety Nick Cross might also find himself getting picked on, as he has allowed 10 receptions on 10 targets the past three weeks when aligned at strong safety.
Hassan Haskins vs. Maryland’s linebackers
Michigan’s coaching staff is obviously going to want to keep unnecessary mileage off Haskins’ legs, and this is a mismatch that might just allow them to do that. Maryland’s linebackers have not graded out well this season; their two most-used linebackers, Ruben Hyppolite II and Ahmad McCullough, have run defense grades of 33.4 and 35.6, respectively. Hyppolite has played nearly 600 snaps this season and misses 15.4% of his tackle attempts, while McCullough has played almost 400 snaps and misses 16.7% of his tackle attempts. They also aren’t pressure threats, as both have three total pressures on the season. It seems that Michigan should be able to give the ball to Haskins and have him run through the linebackers.
Prediction:
If Michigan’s offensive staff chooses to keep giving the ball to Haskins on first down, they both preserve predictability ahead of a game next week where they’re likely to avoid it like the plague and are putting the ball in the hands of a player who is especially adept at running through poor tacklers. I could see Haskins getting 15-20 carries in this game and averaging 7.0 yards per carry, and if he’s picking up that many yards and getting the ball on first down then Michigan is going to be in some down-and-distance situations that allow them to call whatever they’d like. This is where the passing game should get plenty of opportunity to test Maryland’s man coverage.
On defense, edge rushers Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo will likely make life a nightmare for Maryland tackles Spencer Anderson and Jaelyn Duncan despite their quality pass blocking grades (86.1 and 74.1) because at this point there’s no reason to doubt that they will make life nightmarish for any tackle tandem. Michigan’s quality coverage from the secondary should be enough to keep Tagovailoa in check, and though Maryland might hit a deep ball or two, their reliance on short passes doesn’t bode well for them based on how Michigan has defended those the last few weeks.
Michigan 34, Maryland 17
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