Michigan faces Indiana at the Big House Saturday night with as much on the line as ever: a chance at the College Football Playoff, a chance at the Big Ten title game, and even a reversal of a one-game Indiana win streak after the Wolverines had previously won 24 in a row and 39 of the last 41 games (Michigan’s two losses in that span came in 1987 and 2020).

There are a number of factors that play to Michigan’s advantage, from the more technical to some simple, team-independent things like game location. Michigan has won 20 straight home games against Indiana, with their last loss to the Hoosiers in the Big House coming in 1967. Michigan is also 8-2 in night games at Michigan Stadium. With Michigan needing to win out to reach their goals, the motivating factor of ending Indiana’s win streak, and Mike Hart facing the team for which he was previously associate head coach, there are a number of interesting narratives at play. How, though, do the teams stack up on the field?

Note: the statistics above were compiled in an effort to balance basic counting statistics with additional numbers that appear relevant to Saturday’s outcome. Full statistics for Michigan are available here and for Indiana are available here.

Michigan’s edge defenders vs. Indiana’s offensive line

U-M edge defenders Aidan Hutcinson and David Ojabo are an issue for every team in the conference, but the impact they could make against Indiana is particularly noteworthy. Indiana has allowed 21 sacks so far this season, and those haven’t ebbed and flowed. Indiana has allowed at least two sacks in each of their last five games; they allowed three against Michigan State, five against Ohio State, and four against Maryland.

According to Pro Football Focus, tackle Caleb Jones has allowed 25 pressures on 304 pass-block snaps (54.3 pass block grade) while tackle Luke Haggard has allowed 18 pressures on 276 pass-block snaps (63.3 pass block grade). Contrast that with Hutchinson, who has 39 pressures in 396 total snaps (92.7 pass rush grade), and Ojabo, credited with 23 pressures in 273 snaps (90.1 pass rush grade). And what happens if Michigan decides to stunt their edge defenders inside? More pressure. Guard Mike Katic has allowed 16 pressures on 259 pass-block opportunities (60.7 pass block grade), and guard Matthew Bedford has allowed 13 pressures on 308 pass-block opportunities (64.5 pass block grade).

If Hutchinson and Ojabo are able to impact the game and create [blank]-and-long situations for Indiana’s offense, the Hoosiers’ use of running back Stephen Carr may be necessarily limited. Carr is infrequently used in the passing game but has averaged 3.8 yards per carry, of which Pro Football Focus says 2.8 yards per carry have come after contact. If Michigan plays to its average they should be able to contain Carr and give Hutchinson and Ojabo opportunities to go after true freshman quarterback Donaven McCulley.

Michigan’s pass defense vs. Indiana tight end Peyton Hendershot

These first two keys go hand in hand. If Michigan is forcing Indiana to pass, there’s only one truly exceptional option for McCulley, and that’s tight end Peyton Hendershot. He has 35 receptions on 45 targets (77.8% of targets caught) and averages 9.9 yards per target, per PFF. Hendershot is a talented enough receiver that Indiana only lines him up as an in-line tight end on 54% of his snaps, opting to put him in the slot on 34.9% of snaps. PFF’s advanced stats make Hendershot out to be a mid-range threat: his average depth of target is 7.2 yards, he averages 5 yards after the catch per target, and 25 of his catches have resulted in a first down. They have him doing the majority of his work between the numbers and less than ten yards past the line of scrimmage; in that zone he has 17 receptions on 21 targets. If there are holes in the middle of Michigan’s zones he’s likely to find the soft spot and exploit that...if McCulley can get the ball out quick enough.

Hendershot, like any receiver, is not infallible. One area that stands out in PFF’s advanced stats is his 33.3% contested catch rate (two contested receptions on six contested targets). If the answer to making life difficult for Hendershot is to stick someone in man coverage on him, and if you’re a believer in PFF’s grades, then Michigan’s best answers are Daxton Hill (74.8 coverage grade) and that’s about it. Others who might find themselves covering Hendershot include RJ Moten (61.3 coverage grade), Josh Ross (58.7 coverage grade), Nikhai Hill-Green (52.3 coverage grade), or Junior Colson (57.0 coverage grade). We’ve seen Nebraska and Northwestern scheme up plays intended to attack the linebackers in coverage; Hendershot’s odds of having a big game on Saturday seem less tied to screens and, due to his heavy usage, more dependent on route types and Michigan’s coverage choices.

Michigan’s run game vs. Indiana’s linebackers (plus defensive end Ryder Anderson)

Michigan’s run blocking is something Jim Harbaugh acknowledged had to be cleaned up after the Michigan State game. It’s not an area in need of an overhaul--Michigan averaged 4.3 yards per carry on 34 carries--but injuries to the offensive line haven’t helped matters. On top of that, tight end Erick All’s status for Saturday remains uncertain. All’s game against Michigan State was notable for his involvement in the passing game (10 catches, 98 yards), but he’s proven tremendously valuable on an every-snap basis because of the strides he has made in blocking this season. (More from Jay Harbaugh on that here).

Indiana’s linebackers are their best all-around defenders--even Jim Harbaugh noted their talent in Monday’s press conference. Micah McFadden is Pro Football Focus’ highest-graded defender for the Hoosiers (79.7), but defensive end Ryder Anderson is Indiana’s stoutest run defender (83.7). Don’t be surprised if Indiana throws McFadden at the line often; he has generated 25 pressures on the season, so it makes sense to use that kind of speed to disrupt. Linebacker Cam Jones actually has a higher PFF run defense grade than McFadden (71.9 to 67.1) but has had an issue with missed tackles this season, as he has missed 17.2% of his tackle attempts.

If Michigan gets the blocking issues mitigated and can run a bit then play action could suck up the linebackers, opening up the passing game. Indiana has had a rash of injuries in their secondary (more on that in the latest Henschke’s Quick Hitters), so Michigan finding its running game could lead to a particularly big day for quarterback Cade McNamara.

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