Every week since the Michigan State game has brought Michigan a new challenge, and every week they have found a way to answer said challenge. First it was moving forward mentally from a crushing defeat and focusing on Indiana. Then it was finding a way to win in a tough road environment at Penn State. Then it was keeping all eyes on Maryland and not letting attention drift to the Buckeyes. Then it was those Buckeyes and the vaunted rivalry with a trip to the Big Ten Championship Game on the line.
It’s the first week of December and here Michigan is, championship game berth secured and travel plans to Indianapolis arranged. Michigan will play its first neutral-site game of the season in an NFL stadium; the College Football Playoff symmetry is apparent. One more win, one new trophy secured, and they’re in. A solid if unspectacular Iowa team stands in the way, though, and they’ll be looking to play spoiler against Michigan. Whether they’ll get to in large part depends on how Michigan’s offense is called and what Michigan’s defense can do against Iowa’s very good offensive line. Here are three key items that might determine this year’s Big Ten champion:
Keys to the game:
Start fast to take advantage of an Iowa anomaly
Iowa has allowed 68 points in the first quarter this season while scoring just 46, and they flip the script quickly. They have outscored opponents every quarter after that, with their largest margin coming in the second quarter (+53). They have outscored opponents by 35 points in both the third and fourth quarters.
Michigan’s offense has put up 75 points in first quarters this season while the defense has started games particularly well, allowing a paltry 19 points in first quarters this year. The second quarter has been even better for Michigan in terms of scoring margin, with the Wolverines putting up 138 points in second quarters and allowing just 54. Iowa also has their highest scoring output in the second quarter (120 points), which underscores the importance of the first 15 minutes of the game. So how, exactly, is Michigan supposed to go about starting fast?
Move Iowa up the middle, then attack the edges
Adjusting for sacks, Iowa allows 3.4 yards per carry and 120 yards per game. The basic stats are good, but there’s more under the surface. Iowa rotates four defensive tackles, and they’re all okay run defenders. Not good, not bad, just...okay. Iowa’s starters are Logan Lee and Noah Shannon, and their Pro Football Focus run defense grades are 69.3 and 68.6, respectively. PFF grades on a 0-100 scale, and those scores aren’t bad, they’re middling. Lee and Shannon are backed up by Lukas Van Ness and Yahya Black, and their scores are even worse. Van Ness’ run defense score is 60.8 and Black’s is 55.6. One weakness of PFF scores is that there’s not a lot of information about how they arrived at a given score, but what’s seen on film from Iowa’s defensive line meshes with those scores.
The defensive tackles have been moved off the ball by good offensive lines this year, and Michigan’s line certainly qualifies. Only center Andrew Vastardis has a very good PFF run blocking score (77.8), but the eye test helps us here. The offensive line got movement last weekend, and between them and Erick All and Luke Schoonmaker, there’s no reason to believe that Michigan will be unable to open similar holes in Iowa’s defense. Running backs Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum just need a crease to put Michigan’s offense on track to success. Haskins is averaging 3.61 yards after contact per rushing attempt and Corum is averaging 3.1 yards after contact per attempt; a little push is going to go a long way.
Earlier this week, Mazi Smith talked about run defenses priding themselves on stopping the run with six guys. If Michigan starts moving the ball on the ground and Iowa has to bring a seventh guy to stop the run, Cade McNamara could have success picking at Iowa’s turnover-crazy pass defense. Iowa has been a predominantly zone defense for a while, and McNamara should be able to pick away at the edges of the defense if Iowa condenses guys in the box. Attacking the flats seems like the go-to move at that point, and Michigan has the tight ends and running backs to put up yards from those areas of the field.
There may even be occasion to take a few moderate shots with cornerback Matt Hankins out, but testing cornerback Riley Moss (86.8 coverage score, 53% of passes completed when targeted, six pass breakups, four interceptions) and safety Dane Belton (87.5 coverage score, 60% of passes completed when targeted, eight passes broken up, five interceptions) seems unwise. I’d look for Michigan to lean on the run game and work the edges to keep drives going and draw out linebackers to alleviate pressure in the box.
Pressure Petras
There isn’t a quarterback around that would do better if he was under pressure and there’s not a defensive line around that doesn’t want to pressure the quarterback, so this seems fairly obvious. When digging into the stats, though, the importance of pressure on Iowa's Spencer Petras stands out. Petras’ passing grade when kept clean is 83.8, and he averages 7.7 yards per attempt. He’s kept clean on about two-thirds of his throws and under pressure on one-third, and his numbers drop precipitously when he’s under pressure. Petras’ passing grade under pressure is 42.4, and he averages 3.3 yards per attempt and completes just 37.5% of passes under duress. Interestingly, Petras has thrown six interceptions while kept clean and none when under pressure. He does have 12 throwaways while under pressure compared to just four on clean throws, and when taking into consideration that he’s thrown about three times as many passes clean as under pressure it’s clear that he doesn’t gamble when he has defenders bearing down and is much more likely to get rid of the ball.
All that begs the question: what kind of resistance will Michigan face getting to the quarterback? Looking at the edge rusher versus offensive tackle matchup, it seems like there’s a good chance the answer is “not enough to keep Iowa fans happy.” Iowa is rotating at right tackle right now between Jack Plumb and Nick DeJong, while Mason Richman is their left tackle. Richman returned from injury last week against Nebraska and, according to PFF, had his best game of the season. He allowed zero pressures and received a pass-blocking grade of 86.0. This doesn’t track with the rest of his season; for the year he has a 57.1 pass-blocking grade and has allowed 14 pressures. DeJong and Plumb have really struggled, posting pass-blocking grades of 48.4 and 48.2, respectively. DeJong has allowed 24 pressures (including five sacks), while Plumb has allowed 14 pressures.
Across from those three gentlemen will be Michigan’s dynamic edge-rushing duo of Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo. Hutchinson’s current pass-rush grade is 93.0 and Ojabo’s is 89.3. Hutchinson has created 68 pressures and Ojabo has created 39 pressures. So: combined, Hutchinson and Ojabo average a pass-rush score of 91.1 and have combined to create 107 pressures (8.9 per game). Iowa’s tackles average a pass-block score 51.2 and have combined to allow 52 pressures this season (4.3 per game). This is a mismatch, and Petras bugging out under pressure tilts things even more in Michigan’s favor.
Season statistics:
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