Keys To The Game: Michigan Wolverines Football At Ohio State
It’s Michigan vs. Ohio State, and for the second time in three years it’s for all the marbles.
Well … kind of.
There’s still that pesky Big Ten Championship Game with Northwestern looming, and no matter who wins Saturday, that’s going to be a comedown. The Wildcats are solid and have earned their spot, but as head coach Jim Harbaugh said Tuesday, this weekend’s showdown is the game he, his team and anyone associated with Michigan point to all year.
U-M has put itself in position to win the last two years, but the Wolverines haven’t finished. They haven’t gotten the … well, we’ll call them breaks, and haven’t made the big play or the big stop when needed, while OSU has.
That’s essentially been the difference between the two teams in the years in which they've both been competitive. The Buckeyes know how to win, and the Wolverines are still trying to figure out how to come out on top in these games consistently again.
Here are keys to this week’s match-up and punching a ticket to Indianapolis:
Contain the Ohio State passing game: That doesn’t mean shut it down completely. That’s not going to happen. Quarterback Dwayne Haskins will be (by far) the best passer the Michigan defense has faced this year, and Ohio State has three receivers — K.J. Hill (772 yards), Parris Campbell (711) and Terry McLaurin (579) — over 500 yards already this season.
At the same time, two of the Buckeyes’ three lowest yardage passing games have come in the past three weeks. Nebraska held Haskins to his season-low 56.3 completion percentage in OSU’s 36-31 win, and Michigan State allowed 227 yards on 24 completions with a long of 25.
They’ll take their shots, but it’s important to keep them out of the end zone on their bigger passing plays and to rattle Haskins with the pass rush. OSU is only allowing 1.5 sacks per game, but the Wolverines’ pass rush will be the best the Buckeyes have seen this year.
Score touchdowns in the red zone: This was obviously a problem against Indiana, with the Wolverines failing to put it in the end zone seven times on eight trips inside the 20. They also ran out of time near the goal line just before the half, wasting several seconds in the last minute after blowing timeouts earlier in the half.
U-M ranks ninth out of 14 Big Ten teams in red-zone success, scoring 86 percent of the time. They’re actually second in the conference in getting there (50 times), so they’re moving it well between the 20s and, surprisingly, have the most red-zone scores (43). However, only 29 have been touchdowns, a 58-percent touchdown rate that ranks 91st nationally and is ahead of only Indiana, Michigan State and Rutgers in the league.
As former receiver Jason Avant said after the 2002 game, a 14-9 Ohio State victory, “field goals don’t win games.” At least they don’t win this game (usually). The Wolverines’ 15 field goals attempted in the red zone is second most in the Big Ten to only Purdue (18).
Control the ball: The best way to control an explosive offense is to keep it off the field. The Wolverines have owned time of possession so far this season, ranking first in the Big Ten with an average of 34:42 per game. They’ve done it by extending drives on third down at a 50 percent clip, also tops in the conference.
These are stats that are going to have to hold again Saturday if Michigan is going to win.
Another part that factors into that is turnovers. U-M has given the ball away only eight times this year, by far the best in the conference (the next-lowest total is 14 by Maryland and Ohio State). If that holds, the Wolverines will have a great chance to win in Columbus.
The Breakdown: It’s past time Michigan made this a rivalry again. Harbaugh could easily be 2-1 in this series, but the Wolverines have played with either an injured quarterback (Wilton Speight, broken collarbone in 2016; replaced Jake Rudock in 2015 after a fourth-quarter injury) or a back-up (John O’Korn last year).
They’ve got a healthy Shea Patterson under center, an elite defense, a balanced offense with a veteran running back in senior Karan Higdon …
And yet there are no guarantees. This Ohio State team is loaded with talent on both sides of the ball, and it has saved its best for the Wolverines in most years.
U-M is a four-point favorite Saturday, but this one still feels like a toss-up.
TheWolverine.com Staff Picks
TheWolverine.com Senior Editor Chris Balas: Michigan 27, Ohio State 23
The Wolverines have outplayed the Buckeyes for a good part of each of the last two games. Now it’s time to finish, and this team has all the pieces to do it.
TheWolverine.com Senior Editor John Borton: Michigan 27, Ohio State 20
It won’t be easy, given the venue. But it’s past time, and the Wolverines know it.
TheWolverine.com Recruiting Editor Brandon Brown: Michigan 24, Ohio State 20
This is it: Michigan and Ohio State. As a guy who covers recruiting for a living, I have a hard time writing off the Buckeyes because of how much talent they have — but U-M needs this one in a big, big way.
TheWolverine.com Staff Writer Austin Fox: Michigan 24, Ohio State 21
Any Michigan win over Ohio State is special — doing it in Columbus makes it all the more meaningful. The Wolverines finally get it done.
TheWolverine.com Staff Writer Andrew Hussey: Michigan 24, Ohio State 17
Michigan has shown itself to be the better team than Ohio State all season long. Harbaugh finally records his first victory over the Buckeyes and gets Michigan to the Big Ten Championship Game.
TheWolverine.com Columnist Drew Hallett: Michigan 27, Ohio State 20
This is the year. Michigan has the better team, the better matchups and better coaching than Ohio State. The Wolverines have been trending upwards, and the Buckeyes have been teetering for weeks. That doesn't change Saturday, and Michigan beats the Buckeyes in Columbus for the first time since 2000.
TheWolverine.com Analyst Doug Skene: Michigan 31, Ohio State 28
Michigan’s offense must find ways to get to 31 points or more. The defense will make big plays late to preserve its mark in Michigan football history.
TheWolverine.com Staff Writer Adam Ghabour: Michigan 31, Ohio State 24
Jake Moody will make one field and miss one. Michigan will give up two big play touchdown passes to Dwayne Haskins and the OSU receivers but stay strong and finish the game with a win.
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