Michigan has arrived at another fork in the road in its season with a tough Iowa team coming to town Saturday. The Wolverines used their mulligan in a blowout loss at Wisconsin, and now they get Badgers-lite in a Hawkeyes team that’s stout on both sides of the ball.
Iowa is always one of the most physical teams on the schedule, well-disciplined and prideful in its line play. Head coach Kirk Ferentz is the dean of Big Ten coaches, and his program has an identity.
Regardless, U-M is favored to win in Ann Arbor, where head coach Jim Harbaugh has only lost four games.
“They’re one of the premier football programs in the history of the college football,” Ferentz said this week in praising Michigan. “They’ve been good for a long time, and when you look at them, typically they’re very talented. That’s certainly the case with this group. Pretty much at every position they have good skill, good talent and good ability. That has been pretty consistent.”
"Pretty much” meaning there are a few chinks in the armor, particularly a lack of depth on the defensive line.
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The Hawkeyes have won five of the last six (the asterisk — four of those came against Rich Rodriguez- and Brady Hoke-coached teams) against Michigan. They’ve also won on their last two visits to Michigan Stadium as the Homecoming opponent, blowing U-M out 34-9 in 2002 and taking down the Wolverines 38-28 in 2010. This Saturday’s game is also a homecoming tilt.
History doesn’t mean anything when it comes to this year, either, and this is a watershed moment for the Wolverines. Win and their dreams of a Big Ten Championship remain alive for at least a few more weeks. Lose, and the message boards become an absolute disaster.
Here’s what Harbaugh’s crew has to do Saturday to help ensure that doesn’t happen:
Get the Hawkeyes into second- and third-and-long: Iowa ranks 29th nationally and fourth in the Big Ten in rushing, averaging 217.5 yards per game on the ground, and you know their men up front are salivating after seeing Wisconsin put up 350-plus rushing yards on U-M a few weeks ago. Such success usually correlates to a good third-down percentage, and that’s the case here — the Hawkeyes are tied for 17th nationally at 50 percent on the money down.
The Wolverines have to get Iowa into third-and-long situations and take advantage of their speed on the edges against an Iowa line that’s solid, but not elite in sacks allowed (tied for 39th nationally, with 1.5 surrendered per game), mostly against poor to mediocre competition. If not, U-M will be play-actioned and tight-ended to a slow death. Tony Moeaki, TJ Hockenson … heck, we can go back to Dallas Clark in the early 2000s. We remember them all.
A good, mistake-free game from Shea Patterson: Michigan has rarely run the ball consistently against good, physical fronts over the last several years. The Wolverines were able to accomplish it against Michigan State in East Lansing last season, racking up 183 yards against the Spartans (144 coming from running back Karan Higdon) — but that’s been the exception, not the rule.
Iowa ranks 10th nationally in rushing defense (77.0 yards allowed per game) and hasn’t given up a single touchdown on the ground this season. The Wolverines are going to need to throw the ball well in order to win, and that means good decision making, too, from U-M’s senior quarterback.
"I thought Shea played his best all year long [against Rutgers],” offensive coordinator Josh Gattis said on 97.1 The Ticket Radio this week. “That was the Shea that I had seen all camp and all spring. He's just a phenomenal leader for us on offense and really accurate with his decisions and his ball placement. He had a few throws that kind of got away from him that he probably regrets, but he was on point.”
It’s a group effort, the assistant noted. Running backs need to be better in pass protection, the line needs to be more consistent and Patterson needs to hit open receivers.
“You look at the first few weeks, we probably missed about eight deep shots that were just off the fingertips with multiple players, so it’s everybody,” Gattis said. “It’s not just one person. It’s speed of route, it’s detail of route, it’s releases. Those little things can create a difference.”
All of those aspects are going to need to be on point Saturday … and no turnovers.
Win the battle for "hidden" yardage: Michigan's special teams coverage units have been excellent this year, but two of its biggest returns — a long kick return from freshman Giles Jackson and a 20-yard punt scamper by junior Donovan Peoples-Jones — were called back by penalty (though the latter was a bogus block in the back call).
In tight games as this one is expected to be, the difference can be short fields vs. long fields. That means no mistakes on special teams Saturday and a good game from punter Will Hart. He's going to get some work against the Hawkeyes, and the Wolverines need his best.
The Breakdown — Iowa at Michigan: This was one of the games we looked at before the season and thought, 'might be a tricky one.' Physical football teams that don’t take plays off have been tough for U-M to manage in the trenches over the last several years, and Iowa fits that description.
The Hawkeyes have a good, veteran quarterback in Nate Stanley, a stingy defense, physical lines and enough talent at the skill positions to keep a defense off balance. They rely on wide receivers more than tight ends this year, but they’ve got two averaging 16.9 yards or more per reception … they are capable.
This one will likely be a dogfight.
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