Keys to the Game: Michigan vs. Michigan State

Michigan appears to have regained control of the in-state rivalry with Michigan State, winning three of the last four and dominating in the trenches in the last two.

The Spartans have a new coaching staff and a new system, but former head coach Mark Dantonio left a relatively bare cupboard, taking his $4-million golden parachute and running away from what was likely to be a third straight loss to the Wolverines.

Nothing is guaranteed, though, and we’ve seen that too many times in this annual grudge match.

The Spartans averaged just 1.3 yards per carry and turned the ball over seven times in a 38-27 loss to Rutgers — the latter won’t happen Saturday in Ann Arbor — but were still in the game with four minutes to go in the third quarter. MSU quarterback Rocky Lombardi threw for 319 yards and a pair of scores, completing 71.2 percent of his passes, and looked serviceable.

He’ll likely need to have the game of his life to upset the Wolverines in Ann Arbor, but there have been Spartans quarterbacks who have risen to the occasion in the past.

Here’s what Michigan has to do against its in-state rival to keep the Paul Bunyan Trophy in Ann Arbor:

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Michigan State scored a pair of touchdowns against Rutgers' man coverage, turning 13-yard gains into long scores on broken tackles, including a 50-yarder by receiver Jayden Reed that allowed them to get back in the game after going down 14-0.

Michigan’s pass rush is almost assuredly going to be a problem for an MSU line that was overwhelmed at times by Rutgers’ group, one that’s not going to worry too many other teams on its schedule. The MSU coaches will likely try to get the ball out early with a lot of three-step drops.

Five years ago, Dantonio combated U-M’s rush with many quick, 50-50 deep balls. The Spartans had receiver Aaron Burbridge then, and he was a big part of MSU’s offense that day. The Spartans don’t have that deep threat this year, but they do have slippery receivers who can break tackles and go the distance.

If they make it necessary that the Spartans drive the field, the Wolverines will be in good shape.

In past years, Michigan State had athletes on defense that made them tough to run wide on. This year’s group looks slow and unathletic. There will be many opportunities for the Wolverines in the passing game on some of the same types of plays they ran at Minnesota, getting the matchups they’re looking for in the “speed in space” concepts.

Many expected redshirt sophomore quarterback Joe Milton to throw more deep balls against the Golden Gophers. Instead, the coaches eased him into action, and he ran the game plan beautifully.

But look for more downfield opportunities on Saturday when they turn the page in the playbook.

Turnovers and weather can be great equalizers in rivalry games in which one team appears to have an edge in talent, as we saw three years ago. Michigan turned the ball over five times, including three John O’Korn interceptions and two relatively unforced fumbles, to fall behind 14-3. A third-quarter monsoon essentially prevented U-M from moving the ball, and a fourth-quarter comeback fell just short in a 14-10 setback.

The weather forecast in Ann Arbor Saturday is 49 and sunny, so there should be no repeat of 2017. We can suggest U-M did a good job protecting the ball at Minnesota with no turnovers, but the truth is, they were fortunate twice. Fifth-year senior running back Chris Evans fumbled near the goal line and luckily got the ball back, and the Wolverines also got one back on a kick return.

Give it away Saturday and MSU is much more likely to make a game of it.

Michigan isn’t taking Michigan State for granted, even after the Spartans laid an egg in their opener. This isn’t one of MSU’s most talented teams, but there are still plenty of players on this squad that have battled U-M over the past few years and have the hatred instilled in them by their former coach. They'll likely continue to fight and not quit if things start going south.

The 25-point spread was an eye-opener to many of them, including Lombardi.

“Twenty-five points seems to be a little bit of a stretch for me," the junior quarterback said Tuesday. “If we can take it one play at a time and execute each play the way we’re supposed to, we’ll go out there and have a productive day. And, hopefully, we'll win the game.”

It’s the “executing each play the way we’re supposed to” that’s going to be tough. U-M has an advantage at just about every position, and its defensive ends should be a nightmare for the Spartans’ tackles. If MSU can’t run the ball — the Spartans managed only 50 yards on 39 carries against Rutgers — it’s going to be a long day.

Michigan’s interior line needs to hold up against the downhill stuff if and when MSU goes heavy and tries to run it at them for three or four yards a crack. If the Spartans can do that and bleed some clock to shorten the game, they could keep it closer than it should be.

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