On the field, the Buckeyes are reaching new heights; outside the lines it’s been more of the same question marks that have plagued the program since the Jim Tressel era.
Coincidentally, that’s when the OSU program took off and reached elite football success, competing for national titles and dominating the Big Ten.
They’re the conference’s SEC team of the north, and their success doesn’t seem destined to end anytime soon. They’re recruiting at ridiculous levels, have incredible team speed on both sides of the ball and operate … well, like a football factory.
They’ve been tabbed one of the most unethical programs in college football history (and that was before the Urban Meyer – Zach Smith disaster), made headlines for as many wrong reasons off the field as right ones on it and seem to operate under the mantra “just win, baby” as well as any program in the country.
It’s worked. They’ve now beaten Michigan (or, in Buckeye Jashon Cornell’s words, “It’s the ‘Team Up North … coaches stressed how much we don’t say that name around here. That’s how popular the rivalry is”) 14 out of the last 15 times, have risen to No. 1 in the country, and have the nation’s best offense and defense, statistically.
The one thing they haven’t done this season is prove themselves on the road against a good football team. If fact, the Wolverines would likely also be undefeated with the Buckeyes’ schedule — playing Wisconsin and Penn State at home in October, rather than on the road earlier in the year — and OSU’s road games at Indiana, Nebraska, Northwestern and Rutgers might be the league’s easiest four-game stretch this year.
Regardless, there’s no denying this is a great football team. Here’s what Michigan has to do to beat the Buckeyes at home and finish the regular season 10-2:
Limit explosive plays on offense and make the Buckeyes kick some field goals: Michigan’s defense has been outstanding since getting gashed at Wisconsin, the first half of the Penn State game notwithstanding, and coordinator Don Brown’s crew has now risen to fourth nationally, allowing only 267 yards per game. They slowed a good Indiana offense after the Hoosiers scored 14 quick points and have been dominant at times, especially against the run.
This, however, is a completely different challenge. OSU’s ability to pick up chunks of yardage isn’t limited to the passing game. The Buckeyes are fourth nationally in runs from scrimmage over 10 yards and in the top 10 in 20-, 30-, 40- and 50-yard runs, as well. Running back J.K. Dobbins is a home-run threat every time he touches the ball in an offense designed to free him in space.
Ohio State is only No. 30 in passing plays over 20 yards (44), tied with Michigan, but make no mistake — these receivers can get behind the defense in a hurry.
Michigan State played OSU about as well as anyone this year for a half, but it was still 27-10 after the first 30 minutes (of an eventual 34-10 Buckeyes win) because of the explosive plays.
A 60-yard touchdown to Binjimen Victor, another 21-yard Justin Fields touchdown pass and a 67-yard Dobbins run just before the break opened it up. That can’t happen to the Wolverines if they expect to hang around in this one.
Get outstanding quarterback play from Shea Patterson: The breaks have gone against Michigan quarterbacks over the last 15 years of the rivalry, from Chad Henne’s noodle arm in 2007 to Denard Robinson’s elbow in 2012 to Wilton Speight’s injuries in both 2016 and 2017.
Devin Gardner led Michigan to a near-upset in 2014, but even then, a broken foot limited him on a two-point conversion attempt that would have won the game for the Wolverines.
OSU quarterbacks, meanwhile, have often saved their best for this one in the same period. It’s time someone put an end to it, and the senior Patterson has it in him. He’s thrown for more than 350 yards in his last two games and has nine touchdown passes during that span, playing the best football of his career.
U-M is among the worst teams in the country when it comes to explosive running plays and one of only 15 teams that doesn’t have a run of 50-plus yards this season.
Teams don’t run the ball on the Buckeyes, so odds are that’s not changing. It’s going to be up to Patterson and his receivers to move the ball against a defense that’s just as good against the pass.
Have some success in the running game: It doesn’t have to be a lot — just enough to keep guys like elite defensive end Chase Young honest and not bearing down on Patterson in pass rush on every play.
Last year’s play up front in The Game was one of the bigger disappointments in a 62-39 loss. These guys are better than that and, when motivated, can be really good.
We expect a few wrinkles, too, reminiscent of former OSU head coach John Cooper at Michigan in 1999 when his team had a lot of success between the tackles with different schemes than he showed all year.
Harbaugh is well aware of his 0-4 record against the Buckeyes and has schemed very well in two of the four contests with OSU. We expect him to add a few things for this one, and for U-M to have more success on the ground than some might expect.
The Breakdown: Michigan Wolverines Football vs. Ohio State
This Ohio State unit appears to be one of the most complete teams we’ve seen in the history of the rivalry, and that’s not hyperbole. The offense is perfectly suited for its talents, and unlike last year, this year’s defense is outstanding too.
At the same time, this team has really only been tested by one good team, and that was at home against a Wisconsin squad coming off a horrible loss at Illinois. That game was 10-0 at half in large part because the Badgers couldn’t run the ball … something they do much better than Michigan.
All that being said — it’s going to take an impeccable effort on both sides of the ball and/or some Ohio State mistakes if the Wolverines are going to win this one. They’re due some breaks in this rivalry, but even that might not be enough.
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