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Keys To The Game: Michigan Wolverines Football vs. Wisconsin

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It's about to get real for the Michigan football program. Wisconsin comes to town as the nation’s No. 10 team according to the coaches' poll, starting a three-game stretch that could put U-M right back in the national picture.

Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor averages a nation's best 169.8 yards per game.
Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor averages a nation's best 169.8 yards per game. (Darren Lee)

The Badgers have been typical Wisconsin this year, running over most foes with a dominant-at-times offensive line and a running back in Jonathan Taylor, who most recently put up 221 yards and three scores in a 41-24 win over Nebraska.

But Wisconsin did lose at home to an average BYU team and gave up a lot of yardage (503!) to a bad Cornhuskers team. There’s a reason Michigan is favored by more than a touchdown.

This is U-M’s opportunity to prove this year is going to be different. A solid win over a good Big Ten team could be the catalyst for bigger and better things to come.

Here’s what the Wolverines need to do to win Saturday’s game with Wisconsin:

Slow Wisconsin’s between-the-tackles running game: Taylor is a load, averaging a nation's best 169.8 yards per game. The Badgers put up 287 rushing yards per contest, fourth in the country, and most of them through the middle of the line, and average 6.16 yards per carry. It’s not an explosive offense — Wisconsin is only 29th nationally in run plays of 10 yards or more on the ground — but this offense bleeds clock and sets up play action for quarterback Alex Hornibrook.

As cornerbacks coach Mike Zordich said Wednesday, U-M needs to do its job on early downs and force the Badgers to pass on second and third down. Make this team one-dimensional and you’ve got a good shot. Quarterback Alex Hornibrook is solid, but he’s not the guy who is going to beat you by himself.

Exploit the Badgers’ secondary: This is not the typical stout Wisconsin defense. The Badgers give up 4.43 yards per carry on the ground — adding to the perspective, the best teams the Badgers have faced this year, Iowa and BYU, rank 87th and 117th nationally, respectively, in rushing offense — and are vulnerable there.

But they’re even worse against the pass, ranking 90th in opponent yards per passing attempt (7.6), and they’ll start the game without frosh safety Scott Nelson, out for the first half after being ejected for targeting in the second half last week in a win over Nebraska.

Safety D’Cota Dixon was in a protective boot early this week, while redshirt freshman cornerback Deron Harrell left with a head injury in the second quarter. He’s questionable, as are cornerbacks Travian Blaylock (right leg) and Caesar Williams (left leg).

Michigan’s play-action game has excelled this year — per Pro Football Focus, junior quarterback Shea Patterson has the nation's No. 2 play-action passer rating (minimum 50 such dropbacks), and he averages 4.0 yards per attempt more on play action than regular passing plays. This could be the game to test it out on early downs, but the Wolverines can't be stubborn — attack the weakness.

Win early downs and get off the field on third down: This holds true for every game, but it’s especially true against a team that can run the ball like Wisconsin. The Badgers are 18th in the country in third-down conversion percentage (49.18), but they’re 119th in the nation in third-down plays run (61). They’re also 50th nationally in scrimmage plays of 10 yards or more, so that means they’re doing a lot of damage on first and second down.

This is not a team that’s going to beat you with its speed. It wants to get into second-and-manageable and keep teams guessing between running the ball and play action. Eliminate (or at least limit) that, and there’s a great chance to get off the field.

The Breakdown: Michigan has started slowly the last two games, but in different ways. The Wolverines were lethargic in a game at Northwestern before rebounding to outplay the Wildcats in the last three quarters. U-M trailed Maryland, 7-3, early despite dominating the game after relinquishing a long kick return for touchdown.

This is not the game to start slowly. Wisconsin is fifth nationally in time of possession at 35:08.5 per game and creates angst for teams that fall behind. If U-M can get up early and get the crowd into it, the Wolverines will have a great shot to win.

TheWolverine.com Staff Picks

TheWolverine.com Senior Editor Chris Balas: Michigan 23, Wisconsin 16

Wisconsin is solid, but the Badgers have some holes. They still have a lot of pride, however, and will keep this one close throughout.

The Wolverine Senior Editor John Borton: Michigan 27, Wisconsin 20

It’s the biggest test yet in the Big Ten, and the Wolverines pass their midterm.

TheWolverine.com Recruiting Editor Brandon Brown: Michigan 31, Wisconsin 13

Wisconsin is always solid, but I think Jim Harbaugh and Michigan want to make a statement, and they need to. It’s a night game, ESPN is in town, tons of recruits will be in attendance — make that statement.

TheWolverine.com Staff Writer Austin Fox: Michigan 24, Wisconsin 17

Michigan grinds out a close one and continues to restore hope that this could still be a special season.

TheWolverine.com Analyst Doug Skene: Michigan 24, Wisconsin 20

The three-week, red-letter game stretch will begin with a narrow win over Wiscy.

TheWolverine.com columnist Drew Hallett: Michigan 26, Wisconsin 14

The Wolverines don't just beat their first quality opponent since 2016. They do it by double digits.

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