Keys to the game (plus how to watch, stream, or listen): Georgia
The excitement of Michigan's debut in the College Football Playoff is balanced by the reality that there's a game against an elite opponent to be played in mere hours, and where you fall on the spectrum of risk tolerance probably goes a long way toward explaining how you feel about this matchup.
Whether you find Georgia terrifying or exciting, Pro Football Focus paints a picture of the Bulldogs as daunting. On their 0-100 scale, PFF gives Georgia's offense a 91.3, its defense a 94.3, and its special teams a 90.4 for the 2021 season.
On paper (or, more accurately, screen), Georgia is the toughest opponent Michigan has faced this year. No team Michigan has played has graded out at 90.0 or above on offense, defense, and special teams; in fact, no team Michigan has played has graded out at 90.0 or above in more than one category, let alone all three.
Though they don't quite grade out as well, Michigan's not exactly overmatched against Georgia. Michigan's offense has graded out at 87.3 this season, while the defense has received a 92.2 and the special teams 85.3. Below are three things that could decide Friday night's CFP semifinal.
Previously: In-depth look: offense, defense, special teams
Is there anyone who can keep tight end Brock Bowers in check?
Georgia's primary offensive weapon is true freshman tight end Brock Bowers, who has 47 receptions on 61 targets this season for 791 yards and 11 touchdowns. Bowers has acquired 463 of his 791 receiving yards after the catch (58.5%) and forced nine missed tackles, three more than any receiver on the team and tied with running back Kenny McIntosh for the team lead. Bowers has only dropped two passes all season and has made seven receptions on 12 contested catches for a team-leading 58.3% contested catch conversion rate.
Georgia puts Bowers in the slot on 47.2% of snaps and inline on 42.6% of snaps, per PFF. He'll likely be covered by a combination of linebackers (likely Junior Colson, Nikhai Hill-Green and/or Michael Barrett) in the box and safeties Dax Hill and Rod Moore when Bowers is in the slot.
If Bowers gets open, quarterback Stetson Bennett gets his favorite short- to mid-range target. If Bowers is covered, Bennett has to look to his receivers, and their statistics--and the stats of Michigan's corners--make that matchup look like a push.
Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett versus pressure
That's where Michigan's defense can make its mark. If Bennett has to spend a significant amount of time with the ball in his hands, Michigan has a better chance getting pressure on him.
As I wrote in the first-look article linked above:
Bennett has completed 148 of 231 passes (64.1%) for 2325 yards with 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions. PFF gives him a 78.0 overall passing grade. Georgia's linemen keep him clean on about 75% of his dropbacks and he does very well then, completing 71.3% of his passes and throwing for 11.0 yards per attempt with 22 of his 24 touchdowns and four of his seven interceptions. The 25% of dropbacks on which he is under pressure are a different story, with Bennett completing just 30.2% of passes for 5.9 yards per attempt with two touchdowns and three interceptions. On 43 pass attempts under pressure he has 12 throwaways. These numbers are strikingly similar to Iowa's Spencer Petras'.
Georgia's offensive line has allowed few pressures this season, so if Michigan has any chance at getting pressure on Bennett, it will need time. A covered Bowers seems to be Michigan's best chance at turning Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo loose.
On the topic of turning Hutchinson, Ojabo et al. loose, Georgia's offensive line might not be as good as their statistics indicate. Here's what UGASports.com's Anthony Dasher said in our Five Questions piece:
Despite not having allowed an abundance of sacks, the stats do not tell the entire story. Teams have been able to push the pocket inside. That said, the two tackles - Jamaree Salyer and Warren McClendon have played a ton of football. They actually did a great job against Will Anderson in the SEC title game, holding the Alabama All-American without a sack. Stetson Bennett deserves some credit, too. Bennett's ability to scramble and move around in the pocket has certainly kept the sacks number lower than what it ordinarily might have been.
Sounds like something of a mixed bag. On one hand, keeping Will Anderson without a sack is a feather in the offensive line's cap. On the other hand, Michigan doesn't necessarily have to accumulate sacks to impact the effectiveness of Bennet and Georgia's offense.
Bennett's clean/under pressure splits are stark. For context, Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara has been kept clean on 68.7% of dropbacks and has completed 151 of 221 attempts (68.3%) for 8.3 yards per attempts, 10 touchdowns, and four interceptions. McNamara has been under pressure on 31.3% of snaps and has completed 48 of 90 attempts (53.3%) for 7.1 yards per attempt, five touchdowns, and zero interceptions.
If Michigan is going to keep the ball away from Bowers by speeding up Bennett and pushing him from being the 71% completion percentage, 11.0 yards per attempt passer to the 30% completion percentage, 5.9 yards per attempt passer, it is going to have to attack Georgia's guards.
Georgia's guards have the lowest pass-blocking grades of the five starting offensive linemen, per Pro Football Focus. Justin Shaffer has a 61.5 pass-block grade and has allowed 14 pressures, while Warren Ericson has a 66.5 pass-block grade and has allowed eight pressures. Michigan defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald has mixed fronts and areas where pressure comes from throughout the season; he'll likely have packages designed to attack the pressure points on Georgia's line.
Michigan's offensive line and tight ends versus Georgia's defensive line and linebackers
This point isn't as easy as the first two to quantify with statistics, but if Michigan is going to play their game then they're going to have to get hats on Georgia's seven wrecking balls.
And make no mistake about it: Michigan intends to play their game. The players have been saying all week that they won't stray from what got them to this point, and that's PSP (physical, smart, precise) football.
Holding the line against Georgia's defensive line should enable Hassan Haskins to churn out a few yards each carry, and that's enough to keep Michigan's options open. The Wolverines will be in trouble if the run gets shut down on first and second down and they are forced to throw. That's no knock on Cade McNamara and his receiving crew; throwing on third down against a quality secondary while a ferocious front seven is allowed to pin its ears back and pass rush is a recipe for disaster, talent notwithstanding.
Not only does getting approximately three yards on first and second down keep the playbook open for Michigan, it keeps McNamara in his comfort zone. This season, 48.2% of McNamara's throws have been 0-9 yards downfield; his second-most frequently attempted throw is 10-19 yards downfield, which made up 15.4% of McNamara's throws. When throwing to a target 0-9 yards past the line of scrimmage, McNamara is completing 75.3% of passes and has zero turnover-worthy plays (a PFF proprietary statistic). Conversely, McNamara's completion percentage is still a healthy 60.4% on throws 10-19 yards past the line of scrimmage, but he has four turnover-worthy plays and three interceptions on throws of that depth.
How to watch, stream, or listen:
Basic Information
What:
#2 Michigan Wolverines (12-1, 8-1 Big Ten) vs. #3 Georgia Bulldogs (12-1, 8-0 SEC)
Where:
Hard Rock Stadium
Miami Gardens, FL
When:
Friday, December 31, 2021
7:30 PM
Weather:
Tailgate-- 81 degrees, sunny at 4 PM
Kickoff-- 74 degrees, clear at 7:30 PM
Halftime-- 73 degrees, clear at 9:15 PM
Game end (approx.)-- 71 degrees, clear at 11 PM
Watch:
ESPN
Stream:
Hulu+Live TV, YouTube TV, Sling, FuboTV, ESPN
Listen:
Learfield Michigan Sports Network (list of local affiliates)
The Varsity Network app
Follow Along:
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