Michigan 5th in returning production according to ESPN

Bill Connelly, staff writer for ESPN, is the man behind ESPN's SP+ projections. He uses analytic data to rank teams and form his game, week to week, and season long predictions.

One of the main factors in his formula, and something many believe can be an indicator of future success, is returning production.

Simply, of the players that earned statistical metrics in the previous season, what percentage of those players and stats are returning in the upcoming season. The actual formula is more complex than that, having to account for transfers and other variables, but I won't break that down here. If you are interested, I recommend reading Bill's article.

College football teams' returning production for 2023 season (espn.com)

Of course, this doesn't mean a team will be good or bad, but often if team improves or gets worse, the level of production returning correlates. There are clearly no guarantees, however. Connelly says in his article, "Returning 87% of its production didn't stop BYU from underachieving in 2022 and returning 33% didn't prevent Ohio State from improving slightly in 2016." Overall, it makes sense, the more of your impactful players that are back, the more likely you are to be as good or better.

Heading into the 2023 season, Connelly has Michigan 5th in the nation in returning production with a total of 81%. He estimates 84% (4th) for the offense and 78% (16th) for the defense. Florida State leads the way with 87% followed by Kansas (85%), FAU (83%), Wyoming (83%), and then Michigan.

Connelly says that in each year he has been calculating returning production, 5% of total teams return 80% or more, as is the case this season with UConn and Texas A&M returning 80% along with the previously mentioned top 5. Those teams saw an average increase of 5.8 adj. points per game in Connelly's SP+ rankings. That level of improvement is the equivalent of a top 25 team becoming a top 10 team.

Michigan finished the 2022 season 3rd in SP+, so for that team to now be 5th in returning production is a big deal.

"The Wolverines are projected to return QB JJ McCarthy, running back and Heisman hopeful Blake Corum and 9 of their 12 defenders with 400+ snaps," said Connelly. "Plus, Jim Harbaugh made deft use of the portal, adding reinforcements to both the linebacking corps and an already-awesome offensive line. Both Ohio State and Penn State enter 2023 with hopes of preventing a third straight Big Ten title for Michigan, buy they'll have to clear a really high bar."

All of this is to say, Michigan was one of the best teams in the country last season, they return a lot of that production, have added impactful transfers, and are likely to be even better next season. At the end of the day, what happens on the field is what matters. But as we begin months of prognostication, I think it is pretty clear. As defending back-to-back Big Ten Champions with arguably the best roster Jim Harbaugh has had at Michigan, it is fair to say the Big Ten runs through Ann Arbor and the Wolverines should be the favorites to win the conference and return to the playoff again next season.

---

Discuss this article with our community on our premium message boards

Not a subscriber to Maize & Blue Review? Sign up today to gain access to all the latest Michigan intel M&BR has to offer

Follow our staff on Twitter: @JoshHenschke, @Berry_Seth14, @TrevorMcCue, @DennisFithian, @BrockHeilig, @JimScarcelli, @DavisMoseley, @lucasreimink, @JaredHalus

Subscribe to our podcasts: Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts and Spotify

Check out Maize & Blue Review's video content on YouTube

Follow Maize & Blue Review on social media: Facebook, Twitter, TikTok, and Instagram