Michigan Basketball: NCAA Tournament Outlook
With Selection Sunday just over two weeks away, Michigan’s tournament chances are coming down to the wire. Three games remain in the regular season for the Wolverines, and a slip up could mean their season ends at the Big Ten Tournament.
As of Feb. 23, both Jerry Palm of CBS and Joe Lunardi of ESPN have the Wolverines listed as a bubble team, teetering on the edge of making it to the NCAA Tournament.
After Michigan’s win on the road at Rutgers Palm wrote: “Michigan picked up another road win at Rutgers, which wasn't easy, but the Wolverines cannot worry about style points. They just need Ws. Michigan is one win away from getting off the bubble, but is still listed as On the Fence because they may not be favored again in the regular season.”
Palm considers Michigan a team that is “on the fence” but currently has them getting in to the NCAA Tournament as a No. 9 seed. Lunardi also has Michigan as a No. 9 seed, though his colleague at ESPN, Eammon Brennan, considers the Wolverines to be a team with “more work to do.”
With a home game against Purdue, and road contests at Northwestern and Nebraska, the consensus seems to be that one more win should secure Michigan’s tournament spot. Though that is easier said than done, here is a closer look at the teams that Michigan will be competing with for those coveted positions.
Lunardi’s Last Four Byes
Michigan State, USC, California and Marquette.
Lunardi has Michigan ahead of these four teams in terms of seeding, though these are the teams that are nipping at the Wolverines’ heels. All four of these teams would avoid having to play in the first-round play-in games.
Michigan State has a home game against No. 16 Wisconsin, who have a healthy Bronson Koenig back but are coming off an away loss to Ohio State, before going on the road to play Illinois and No. 24 Maryland. This will be a tough stretch for a depleted Spartans team, although their recent win against Nebraska helps their case.
USC takes a road trip to Arizona State before hosting Washington State and Washington to close out the season. All three of the Trojan’s opponents to end the regular season currently sport losing records.
California hosts Oregon State tonight before going to Utah and Colorado for its final two games. The Golden Bears should come away with the victory against Oregon State but may have a tougher time in the final two games.
Marquette has a tough road ahead with away games at Providence and Xaiver before ending the season at home against Creighton. Xavier and Creighton are both firmly tournament teams while Providence is a fellow bubble team.
First Four In, Last Four Out
If Michigan takes care of business it shouldn’t have to worry about these teams, though at times throughout the season the Wolverines have played below their potential.
Palm sees Marquette as a last four team, as well as Kansas State, TCU and Syracuse while Seton Hall, Illinois State, Georgia Tech and TCU just make the cut for Lunardi.
On the outside looking in for Palm are Rhode Island, Wichita State, Wake Forest and Mississippi while Lunardi has Kansas State, Wake Forest, Clemson and Tennessee failing to make the tournament. For Michigan, one win out of the last three will keep these teams at bay and secure a spot in the tournament.
While it won’t be a cakewalk to get to a ninth conference victory, the Wolverines should have enough to hear their names called on Selection Sunday.