Michigan grapples with life on the bubble as March arrives

After the Wolverines lost to No. 15 Illinois on Sunday, much of it will depend on the first week of college basketball’s wildest month. Sitting at 15-12 overall with a 9-8 conference record, Michigan is now staring down the barrel at a week that could make or break its season. The Wolverines will play three games in five days against Michigan State on Tuesday, Iowa on Thursday and Ohio State on Saturday — two teams they’ve already lost to in 2022 and a KenPom top-15 opponent.

“I feel like all three games we’re playing, we can win all those games,” Caleb Houstan said. “We’re more than capable of doing that. I think we’re excited for this little stretch and just ready to play.”

But it’s been nearly three weeks since Michigan won consecutive games. The Wolverines’ lack of consistency, coupled with the short turnarounds, could spell disaster. On the flip side, the circumstances also present an opportunity to get hot and ride a strong regular season finish into the Big Ten Tournament and March Madness.

Life on the bubble is defined by a vague, ambiguous future. Yet it also allows teams to control their own destiny. At this moment, the Wolverines are sitting squarely on the crossroads ahead of a season-altering week.

“I see opportunity for us to shock the world,” DeVante’ Jones said of the three-game stretch. “I know a lot of people are going to feel like it’s a tough stretch for us and they don’t see us winning, but me, being one of the leaders of this team, I’m just telling my teammates, ‘Do whatever you’ve got to do to focus. Get your recovery. Watch film. Try not to be on social media as much because we’ve got to lock in.’ These next games are very important for us.”

Following Michigan’s loss to the Illini, Martelli likened the upcoming week to an NBA schedule in his postgame press conference. The Wolverines have the benefit of experience in a stretch like this, as they played four games in a single week earlier this month (Feb. 5-12).

By the end of that timespan, however, it was clear Michigan was running on fumes. The Wolverines wilted in the second half at Crisler Center against Ohio State during the final game of that four-game, seven-day stretch. If a similar fate awaits Michigan in Columbus at the end of this final regular season push on Saturday, it could prove costly.

As a program, the Wolverines have a feather in their cap when approaching this sort of schedule. Michigan coach Juwan Howard and assistant Howard Eisley played a combined 31 NBA seasons and coached another 15 total years at the NBA level. Their experience in quick turnarounds has helped the Wolverines learn to make the most of game days. Beyond shootarounds, Michigan uses the final day-of hours to continue reviewing film, tweaking game plans and scouting opponents.

That will play a major role in the team’s preparations this upcoming week. But for now, all the attention is on Tuesday’s matchup against the Spartans.

“It’s the next game, so it’s the biggest game of the year,” Martelli said. “Right? And then I think, when we catch our breath, Thursday will be the biggest game of the year. I’ve never been one to say, ‘This game, that game, the next game.’ Our intention and our preparation is to win the next game.”

Added Jones: “I wouldn’t say that we’re desperate, but we definitely understand that every game is big for us. We’re knowing a win could definitely help us. We don’t want to lose any games. It’s day by day with us.”

For a program that embraces a “1% better each day” mantra, there remain big-picture implications of this upcoming week — whether they want to face them or not. After climbing into the top five of the AP Poll in December, missing the NCAA Tournament altogether would be a massive step back for the Wolverines.

Michigan spent November and December in a downward spiral before figuring things out in January and making a February push, but the Wolverines are still faced with the reality of life on the bubble as March nears. The way Martelli sees it, though, this week could serve as an ideal springboard of growth just before the most important time of year.

“I’m not in favor of consistency because that means you stay the same,” Martelli said, gesturing horizontally. “What we want to do is go on a climb. But we don’t want to be a rocket. We just want to climb each step each day.”

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