Michigan plays at Wisconsin Saturday in its first big test of the conference season.
The Wolverines survived Northwestern’s December comeback from 15 down to hold on for a two-point win and won at Illinois, 79-69, but the Badgers — even though they aren’t playing well — are a different animal.
They lost at home to Purdue in overtime and at Maryland, but Michigan head coach John Beilein expects their best when his No. 2 team comes to town.
“I’ve always said this about Wisconsin and everywhere in the Big Ten … it’s not as much the venue but the style of play in that venue,” he said. “When you go to Indiana they’re on top of you, but playing so fast that it can be distracting. This one they’re not on top of you; it’s a pro arena that seats 20,000, so not on top of you like Purdue or Indiana. But it’s how they generally just frustrate you and continually make the right play.
“They have a great appreciation how the game should be played by their fans. They’re encouraging that loose ball by out-diving you on the floor … it feeds the monster there that is just good basketball. Hustling, and just good basketball.”
Some coaches would rather get teams when they’re down after a loss. Beilein said he’s just the opposite, knowing the Badgers will likely be desperate. They’re 11-6 overall and 3-3 in the league, and two of their losses have come at home (to the Boilermakers and Minnesota).
They can’t afford another one.
“I prefer to play someone after a win,” Beilein said. “Look at who they’ve played, lost to. Purdue just played tremendous in that game. They lost to Maryland but were down 18, take the lead with two minutes to go in that game. I look at the quality of those losses, not that they’ve lost two in a row.”
The big challenge Saturday is what to do with Ethan Happ. The senior center is averaging 19.4 points, 10.4 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game, and he’s great at passing out of the post in addition to a variety of pivot moves.
Wisconsin wins when they get and make threes. Our Jeff Schiller noted that compared to teams in similar situations — Purdue, Maryland, Louisville and Texas, all of which, like Wisconsin, have played double figure games against top 100 teams with mixed results, and all teams that shoot a lot of threes — the Badgers are more heavily reliant on makes:
Wisconsin--50.5% from 3 in wins, 31.1% in losses, 19.4% difference
Purdue--37.1% in wins, 33.0% in losses, 4.1% difference
Maryland--38.5% in wins, 34.8% in losses, 3.7% difference
Louisville--37.4% in wins, 33.6% in losses, 3.8% difference
Texas--42.0% in wins, 27.3% in losses, 14.7% difference.
Wisconsin stands out from the pack in terms of how hot they are from three in wins, and how different they are in losses. The only team within the other four remotely close is Texas, and that includes a 2-for-22 outlier against Oklahoma State, which skews the difference numbers.
Beilein seems to have noticed.
“We have to make sure they don’t make as many threes against us,” Beilein said. “It’s important again that we can have some mix of trying to make every point Happ makes difficult … tough twos, but also take away their three-point game and their offensive rebounding at the same time.”
He’s as curious as many of the fans are to see if the Wolverines are as mentally tough as they appeared in the first 17 games, which included a blowout win at Villanova and surviving the Wildcats.
"We’re going to find out,” he said. “Both Northwestern and Villanova were extremely hostile environments. It seems like it was a year ago since we went there.
“We’re going to find out real quick. We have to stay together. The game can get away from you very quickly or you can get out of it real quick in Madison, and getting it back can be really hard .
“But you’d better be good on the road, or you can’t compete for a championship.”
With eight games still to go in conference play away from Crisler Center, there’s still plenty to prove.
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