Michigan is 2-4 in Big Ten play, right where many conference teams would be had they lost their leading scorer and played U-M’s schedule. The Wolverines need to make up ground starting tonight with a home game at Penn State, and they’ve got a great opportunity in front of them.
Only a few Big Ten teams other than Northwestern and Nebraska have lost at home, and Illinois is tearing it up on the road. The Fighting Illini, in fact, are in great position with two key road wins on the way to a 6-2 record, a game behind 6-1 Michigan State. They almost pulled out another one, losing by only a point at Maryland.
The next three weeks will be huge for Juwan Howard’s team, which is expected to get junior Isaiah Livers (groin) back this week. U-M needs to hold serve at home in order to hang around in the Big Ten race … we break down the most favorable stretch on the schedule game by game and offer our predictions:
PENN STATE (Wed., Jan. 22):Michigan is a 5.5-point favorite tonight at home against a PSU team that has started 4-3 but played five of its first seven at home. The Nittany Lions have struggled on the road, getting hammered at OSU and losing at Minnesota, and they’ve also dropped a home loss to Wisconsin. PREDICTION: Michigan (Improving to 3-4 in conference)
ILLIINOIS (Sat., Jan. 25):The Illini are 6-2 and coming off a huge, 79-62 road win at Purdue, a team that beat MSU by 29 on its home floor a week earlier. This is one of the nation’s most improved teams under head coach Brad Underwood, and a win over U-M would solidify it as a legit Big Ten contender.
Michigan, though, is desperate to hold serve at home. PREDICTION: Michigan (4-4 in conference)
AT NEBRASKA (2-5) (Tues., Jan 28): The Cornhuskers are lacking talent, but they can put up a fight at home. They beat both Iowa and Purdue in Lincoln before dropping their first conference home game to Indiana — a team they took to overtime in Bloomington, scoring 90 points — but this is the place for the Wolverines to get their first true road win over the year. If not, they could be looking at a .500 conference finish. PREDICTION: Michigan (5-4 in conference)
RUTGERS, at Madison Square Garden (Sat., Feb. 1): Rutgers is another of the league’s nice surprises, having started 5-2 with four home wins and a road victory at Nebraska to move into the top 25. Michigan gave up a home game to play this one a short drive from Rutgers’ campus, and while U-M will have a nice contingent there, it sure would be nice to be playing this one at Crisler Arena. Giving up a home game simply doesn’t make any sense.
This one feels like a toss-up, but it’s one the Wolverines will need to win with a road trip to Rutgers also on the agenda a few weeks later. PREDICTION: Michigan (6-4 in conference)
OHIO STATE (Tues., Feb. 4): Like Michigan, the Buckeyes are reeling, partially due to their tough schedule. They were a top five team before dropping four straight, including a home contest to Wisconsin, and they’ve been bad on the road in Big Ten play. They should win their next three before playing the Wolverines (home to Minnesota, at Northwestern, home vs. Indiana), but this is a game Michigan should win at home. PREDICTION: Michigan (7-4 in conference)
MICHIGAN STATE (Sat., Feb. 8):The Spartans dropped their only tough road game, scoring only 42 points at Purdue in losing by 29, and were taken to the last few minutes at Northwestern before pulling away. We still don’t know a lot about Michigan State other than they’re next to impossible to beat at home.
U-M could have plenty of momentum heading into this one, but the Spartans match up well. Michigan hasn’t proven it knows how to slow Cassius Winston. PREDICTION: Michigan State (7-5 in conference)
AT NORTHWESTERN (Weds., Feb. 12): Michigan has had its struggles in Evanston, even with much better teams. The Wildcats have played tough at home in spurts, leading Maryland by 14 at halftime even before fading in the second half, but this is a game the Wolverines should win. There’s always plenty of maize and blue in the stands, and Michigan matches up well with the Wildcats. PREDICTION: Michigan (8-5 in conference)
INDIANA (Sunday, Feb. 16): The Hoosiers have been all over the map, but they’ve generally been a trainwreck away from Assembly Hall. They’ve essentially been blown out in every game but one away from home, winning at Nebraska, and have even been taken to the wire at home against the Cornhuskers and Northwestern. This should be a home win for the Wolverines. PREDICTIION: Michigan (9-5 in conference)
****
From there, it gets much tougher. U-M plays at Rutgers in the RAC, a tough place to win, at Purdue, home to Wisconsin (you never know how that game’s going to go given the pace) and at Ohio State before coming home to play Nebraska. The Wolverines then travel to Maryland to end the season.
It’s unlikely U-M will still be in the conference race at that point, but this team should finish with 11 or 12 wins in Howard’s first season at the helm and solidly in the NCAA Tournament.
---
• Talk about this article inside The Fort
• Watch our videos and subscribe to our YouTube channel
• Listen and subscribe to our podcast on iTunes
• Learn more about our print and digital publication, The Wolverine
• Sign up for our newsletter, The Wolverine Now
• Follow us on Twitter: @TheWolverineMag, @Balas_Wolverine, @EJHolland_TW, @AustinFox42, @JB_ Wolverine, Clayton Sayfie and @DrewCHallett
• Like us on Facebook
