Michigan and Michigan State sit atop the Big Ten basketball standings like the kings of the conference right now. While both emperors aren’t close to naked, they’ll need to cover up — and buckle up — in the weeks to come.
A 6-0 record doesn’t win the league. It doesn’t even earn a Jim Delany commemorative pin for your travel jacket lapel. It just means you haven’t been hit yet.
The Wolverines and Spartans could both get hit like Vincent Smith by an unblocked Jadeveon Clowney in the weeks to come.
No clowning.
Now, the Wolverines and Spartans are class of the league, along with 5-1 Maryland. They should be battling for the league championship come March, then they face each other twice in 14 days.
But they won’t be unscathed at that point. According to former Wolverine and college basketball analyst Tim McCormick, they won’t be close to perfect, even if one of them does win the conference.
“I think the Big Ten champ will probably lose four games,” McCormick offered. “If it’s four, it’s probably a tie. But the Big Ten has so many quality teams.”
Eleven Big Ten squads have already posted double-digit wins. It wouldn’t be a shock at this point to see eight or nine of them in the NCAA Tournament. That lends credence to John Beilein’s verbal caution at this point.
There’s a long way to go, Beilein stressed, after Michigan’s record-setting 17th straight win to open the season.
And he’s right.
“Maryland is better than I anticipated,” McCormick said. “Nebraska never loses at home. If Indiana can get healthy, they’re very dangerous. I had Iowa earlier this year, and they have enough offense, in certain games if their defense can click or they play an opponent that just doesn’t shoot well, Iowa [can win].
“There is just really good parity throughout. These are teams where Michigan, going in, should be favored. But if they have an off night, [a loss] will happen. It’s going to happen at some point. I think four losses could be the number.”
That sounds high, until one gets a closer look at the schedule. For both the Spartans and Wolverines, there are more potholes than Michigan roads feature amid a different sort of March Madness.
The Spartans’ half-dozen conference wins include three over the Big Ten’s “Little Four” at this point — Rutgers (8-8, 1-5), Northwestern (10-7, 1-5) and Penn State (7-10, 0-6). From this point on, MSU has two games remaining against the vulnerable quartet — at Illinois (4-12, 0-5) on Feb. 5 and at home versus Rutgers on Feb. 20.
It’s about to get real for the Spartans and their spontaneously combustible head coach.
Thursday night, they play at Nebraska’s Pinnacle Bank Arena, where the Cornhuskers last lost on Dec. 16, 2017, by a point to No. 13 Kansas. They haven’t lost a Big Ten game there since the final contest of the 2016-17 regular season. Michigan got the job done then, before running the table in the Big Ten Tournament and going on to wind up one bucket shy of the Elite Eight in the NCAA Tournament.
Things don’t get easier from there for Napoleon Dynamite & Co.
They follow that road game by hosting red-hot Maryland, before going on the road to Iowa and Purdue. Then check the finish, starting Feb. 24: at Michigan, at Indiana, Nebraska, Michigan.
Anyone thinking that sort of slate locks the Wolverines in for at least a share of the title, hold on.
Michigan’s six wins include two over Northwestern (a better team than its record shows, but still a bottom-third aggregation), one over Penn State and one over Illinois. The Wolverines don’t get another genuine break in the schedule until they travel to Rutgers on Feb. 5.
Before that, it’s road games at Wisconsin, Indiana, Iowa, and after mid-February, it’s brutal.
Maryland, at Minnesota, Michigan State, Nebraska, at Maryland, at Michigan State. No wonder Beilein isn’t getting ahead of himself.
McCormick sees both the Wolverines and Spartans among the nation’s elite. Here’s his big three of potential tough draws for U-M, down on the road on a neutral court.
• Tennessee (15-1) — “Tennessee would cause some problems, I anticipate, because of their size. Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield are both big-time scorers. I like Tennessee’s guards a great deal.”
• Virginia (16-0) — “Virginia, to me, is an obvious, based on the fact that their guard play is probably the best in the country. They always talk about their defense, but Kyle Guy and De’Andre Hunter and Ty Jerome are just so incredibly efficient.
“They help on the boards, they all are good passers. Braxton Key gives them a little bit of physicality inside.”
• Michigan State (15-2) — “Michigan State is playing some great basketball. They’re tough and physical and big and strong. Surprisingly, they’ve done a pretty good job of overcoming the injuries to [Kyle] Ahrens — he’s important — and Josh Langford has missed four games.
“If they get those two guys healthy, I would say that Michigan State, Virginia and Tennessee are the teams that I like the most right now.”
March Madness match-ups are obviously a long way off. There’s a Big Ten fistfight to survive, and the bullies are just now rounding the corner.
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