Published Dec 19, 2019
Wolverine Watch: Howard's Crew Won't Give An Inch — And Shouldn't
John Borton  •  Maize&BlueReview
Senior Editor

Leave it to Northwestern to let down the entire Big Ten basketball world.

Granted, the Wildcats aren’t supposed to be good. Just intelligent. But every once in a while, dumb luck ought to take over.

It didn’t on Wednesday night. No doubt inspired by a football team that went 1-8 in the Big Ten this year, the basketball Wildcats failed to hold serve against Michigan State in Evanston.

That broke a streak Northwestern’s mathematicians were no doubt calculating with glee. Big Ten home teams hadn't lost, before the Wildcats’ 77-72 swing-and-a-miss at Welsh Ryan Arena.

In case you hadn’t been keeping score, here were the Big Ten road losses, prior to MSU playing SpoilSparty.

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• Illinois lost at Maryland, 59-58

• Indiana lost at Wisconsin, 84-64

• Iowa lost at Michigan, 103-91

• Maryland lost at Penn State, 76-69

• Michigan lost at Illinois, 71-62

• Minnesota lost at Iowa, 72-52

• Nebraska lost at Indiana, 96-90

• Ohio State lost at Minnesota, 84-71

• Northwestern lost at Purdue, 58-44

• Penn State lost at Ohio State, 106-74

• Purdue lost at Nebraska, 70-56

• Rutgers lost at Michigan State, 77-65

• Wisconsin lost at Rutgers, 72-65

What’s it all mean? Well, Big Ten teams now won’t wind up with 14 squads tying for the conference championship at 10-10 … but you probably weren’t counting on that. It also means that the Spartans go into the January re-launch of the conference slate on top at 2-0 — right where everyone figured they’d be in all pre-season projections.

But a funny thing happened to MSU on its way to runaway domination of the Big Ten. It became seriously less than invincible, a fact underscored by three non-conference losses, including to Virginia Tech, and having to hang on to win at Northwestern.

What that means, for Juwan Howard’s Wolverines, involves a wide-open door and plenty of company in up-and-down scrambles.

Howard’s first crew probably isn’t as good — at this point — as it looked in sweeping to the Battle-4-Atlantis title in the Bahamas. It’s also probably better than the team that dropped 3 of 4 since, including a 71-71 home game to No. 10 Oregon.

So says Jeff Schiller, MHoops 1 on The Fort, the premium website of TheWolverine.com. The former sportswriter and long-time basketball guru regularly holds court with his post-game comments on the site, and he noted those who thought the Spartans were untouchable over-calculated, MSU’s 2-0 Big Ten start notwithstanding.

“I was one of those people — I’ll be honest with you,” Schiller said. “I’m not sure at this point Michigan State is that far above, levels-wise. They’re good … you always take Michigan State’s early season problems at your own peril.

“But there are some questions about that team that they’ve got to get solved. [Freshman guard] Rocket Watts is going to be a very good player for them, but he doesn’t shoot the ball especially well. They really don’t have anybody else that can play [two] guard who can shoot the ball at all, other than Gabe Brown, who isn’t a guard defensively.

“Foster Loyer just can’t defend anybody, and doesn’t seem to have any confidence. The result is, they have a hole at the two-guard position. They have a committee at the four position, where everybody can do certain things but nobody does all the things.”

Bottom line, that puts major pressure on All-Big Ten point guard Cassius Winston and a couple other MSU veterans.

“They’re going to be good,” Schiller reiterated. “They’re going to be very good. But I don’t know that they’re going to be an odds-on favorite anymore, like I thought they were.”

Look around, unbeatable Big Ten teams simply don’t exist.

“Ohio State is good, the game against Minnesota notwithstanding,” he observed. “Maryland probably has more straight talent than anybody in the conference. But Maryland goes hot and cold…”

The Terps showed that be trailing Illinois by double digits at halftime, before rallying to win on their own court by one point. The Buckeyes losing to a 5-5 Minnesota crew spattered some shine off the Buckeyes.

In other words, there’s no reason the Wolverines can’t finish in the top five of the conference. That gets you into the NCAA Tournament, and there’s no post-John Beilein break in that expectation.

Schiller has this team at three or four in the conference.

“They have the ability to be as good as anybody, and certainly to beat anybody in the conference, even on the road, although they haven’t played that well in the first two road games,” he said. “They haven’t shot the ball well.

“I’d say Michigan State, Ohio State, Maryland a sliver above, because of depth, or because they have guys who can score in a few more ways. When X [senior point guard Zavier Simpson] is not playing well offensively, Michigan struggles to score. He’s so much of their offense.”

They’ve developing offense more as they go, from freshman forward Franz Wagner to junior guard Eli Brooks to some hugely hungry sophomores.

Many expected a big step back for this crew of Wolverines. They never accepted that fate, and early results insist they were right.

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