Michigan has been on the verge of making the College Football Playoff heading into the Ohio State game in two of head coach Jim Harbaugh's four seasons in Ann Arbor (2016 and 2018), but a loss to the Buckeyes each time has eliminated those hopes.
Many think 2019 could finally be the year U-M breaks through and gets in, including ESPN's analytics expert Seth Walder.
To no one's surprise, he tabbed Clemson and Alabama as having the best odds to make the 2019 College Football Playoff (at 83 percent and 71 percent, respectively) — the eye-opener, however, was that he had Michigan as his third-most likely team to get in, with a 41 percent chance.
In addition, Walder also gave the Maize and Blue a seven percent chance of winning the National Title, which checked in fourth nationally behind Clemson (36 percent), Alabama (27 percent) and Georgia (eight percent).
"The Wolverines have failed to reach the playoff thus far, but they are in a better situation now than ever in the playoff era," Walder explained. "Coach Jim Harbaugh is bringing back eight starters on offense, including [senior] quarterback Shea Patterson, who tied for eighth in Total QBR a season ago.
"The result is that FPI expects Michigan to have the best offense (and team) in the Big Ten, catching some of its division rivals in what could be a down season. Ultimately, Playoff Predictor thinks Michigan has a 41 percent shot at the playoff.
"However, it's worth noting that FPI is awfully low on Ohio State -- maybe even too low -- because it isn't explicitly aware that the Buckeyes have added via transfer an elite quarterback prospect in [sophomore] Justin Fields (transfer QBs in FPI are noted only when they have significant starting experience).
"On the other hand, a new head coach-QB tandem does increase variance for Ohio State, and when you're at the top, variance is a bad thing. No team is in better position than Michigan to seize the reins of the Big Ten and take advantage if the new crew in Columbus doesn't work out right away.
"Though Georgia -- which also is bringing back a known quantity in [junior] Jake Fromm QB -- is a longer shot to reach the playoff than Michigan, it has a better chance of actually winning the national championship. It makes sense: Most (including FPI) would agree that the Bulldogs are better than the Wolverines, but their path the top four is more complicated with Alabama and LSU in the same conference."
Walder also projected the 10 most likely College Football Playoff pairings, and the Maize and Blue showed up in five of the 10. A showdown with Alabama in the No. 1 vs. No. 4 game was the most likely outcome.
Since the College Football Playoff era began in 2014, the Big Ten has posted a 2-2 record and has placed three of its teams in the annual event — Ohio State in 2014, Michigan State in 2015 and Ohio State in 2016.
The Buckeyes won the inaugural edition in 2014 with wins over Alabama and Oregon, but the league has been embarrassed in its two games since then — Alabama's 38-0 obliteration of Michigan State in 2015, and Clemson's 31-0 destruction of Ohio State in 2016.
TheAthletic's Stewart Mandel is Buying the Michigan Hype
TheAthletic's Stewart Mandel answered fan questions in his college football mailbag this morning, and one reader simply asked whether or not he was buying the revamped Michigan offense with new coordinator Josh Gattis at the helm.
Mandel's response summarized perfectly the way most Michigan fans are feeling this offseason.
"When I first discussed this topic three months ago, I gave Harbaugh props on the hire, but, like Matty [the fan asking the question], remained unconvinced that Harbaugh would actually let Gattis run the show," Mandel wrote. "But so far, he definitely has. The only clips I saw of Michigan’s untelevised spring game came from Angelique Chengelis' phone, but those plays do indeed look straight out of an honest-to-goodness, 2019 college offense.
"QB in the shotgun, one-back or split-back spread, RPOs where the QB reads a defender and decides whether to hand off or pass, guys trying to get free in space, Patterson looking to throw downfield. And tempo.
"This is not Harbaugh’s Stanford or Michigan offense. This is clearly Gattis’ offense, straight out of his recent stints at Penn State and Alabama. Which puts me in a bit of a conundrum.
"After last year, I told myself I’d never again fall for the hype around Michigan, and after 62-39, I certainly wouldn’t ever again pick the Wolverines to beat Ohio State as long as Harbaugh was still the coach. But now he’s gone and done the one thing I felt he needed to do most — modernize his offense.
"You can already see where this is headed. Ohio State, with a new coaching staff and questions at quarterback, might be vulnerable this season. And the game is in Ann Arbor. And … let me stop myself before I say something I’ll regret.
"Scheme is great, but ultimately you need the players, and I do remain concerned whether Michigan has enough firepower to score a lot of points. The Wolverines have a talented QB in Patterson, and they have great receivers. But the only running back who scared anyone last season, Karan Higdon, is gone, and his primary backup [senior] Chris Evans is suspended.
"There’s a lot riding on touted redshirt freshman Christian Turner, who took advantage of the new redshirt rule last season and actually played quite a bit in the bowl game.
"If, however, he and freshman Zach Charbonnet emerge as the real deal … nope, not going to say it yet. Prove me wrong, Harbaugh."
Many fans seem to have the same mindset Mandel has in regards to Michigan's offense — that they'll 'believe it when they see it.'
However, those visions started to become a reality this past Saturday at U-M's spring game when the public got their first glimpses of the actual up-tempo, no huddle offense.
In case you were not in attendance, here is what it looked like:
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