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Michigan Wolverines Football: Previewing Wisconsin With A Badger Insider

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Wisconsin's last road loss came in a 14-7 setback at Michigan Stadium on Oct. 1, 2016.
Wisconsin's last road loss came in a 14-7 setback at Michigan Stadium on Oct. 1, 2016. (Dan Sanger)
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Riding a five-game winning streak, Michigan will welcome a 4-1 Wisconsin team to The Big House on Saturday in a monstrous primetime showdown.

John Veldhuis of BadgerBlitz was kind enough to swing by and help us break down Wisconsin, explaining what Wolverine fans should be on the lookout for this Saturday.

Projected Starters on Offense

• QB Alex Hornibrook (redshirt junior) — After tossing 15 picks last season as a redshirt sophomore, Hornibrook has thrown just two through five games in 2018. He also boasts an impressive 64 completion percentage and is averaging 192.6 passing yards per game in Wisconsin's run-heavy offense.

• FB Alec Ingold (senior) — The Badgers are one of the few teams to still employ a fullback on a regular basis, and their utilization of Ingold has paid off in 2018. He is averaging 8.8 yards per carry on 12 touches, and his three rushing scores are tied for the second most on the squad.

• RB Jonathan Taylor (sophomore) — He broke Adrian Peterson's NCAA freshman rushing record last year with 1,977 yards and is once again on a torrid pace in 2018. His 169.8 yards per outing are 14.2 more than any other player in the country, his eight rushing scores are tied for seventh most nationally, and he has already eclipsed the 220-yard mark twice this season (221 yards against Nebraska and 253 against New Mexico).

• WR A.J. Taylor (junior) — With tight end Troy Fumagalli (46 catches, 547 yards last year) off to the NFL, Taylor has become the Badgers' top receiving threat, leading the club in both receptions (18) and yards (354). He has compiled 60 or more yards in three of the team's five affairs, and his 19.6 yards per catch are for the fourth-highest mark in the Big Ten.

• WR Danny Davis (sophomore) — His season has been marred by off the field issues, missing the first two tilts due to suspension. Davis has not been able to replicate the brilliance he flashed last season as a freshman (418 yards, including a three-touchdown performance in the bowl win over Miami), racking up just eight catches for 90 yards.

• TE Kyle Penniston (redshirt junior) — He seems to have assumed the primary blocking role at the position in the wake of fifth-year senior Zander Neuville's season-ending injury, only hauling in one grab for four yards. Redshirt freshman Jake Ferguson is the best pass catcher of the group , checking in second on the team in both receptions (16) and yards (213).

• LT Jon Dietzen (redshirt junior) — Despite being a redshirt junior, he is tied with classmate David Edwards as the second youngest starting offensive lineman. He has begun all four games he has played in (missed the New Mexico contest with injury), but head coach Paul Chryst has shown a tendency to frequently sub him out — as a result, Dietzen has not seen more than 36 snaps in a game this year.

• LG Michael Deiter (fifth-year senior) — Sporting News named him a second-team All-American after last season, when he started all 14 games at left tackle and paved the way for a Badger rushing attack that ranked 23rd nationally (222.3 yards per game). According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Deiter has been a better pass protecter than run blocker this year, grading out at 77.9 or higher (64 is considered average) in three of the team's five affairs.

• C Tyler Biadasz (redshirt sophomore) — He started all 14 contests at center last year as a redshirt freshman, and his 83.6 overall grade by PFF in 2018 is the second best among the team's starting linemen. Biadasz and the rest of the unit have only allowed 14 tackles for loss, the second fewest in all of college football.

• RG Beau Benzschawel (fifth-year senior) — He has begun 41 consecutive outings on Wisconsin's offensive line and was named a first-team All-American by Sports Illustrated at the conclusion of last year. PFF has tagged him with an overall grade of 84.3 so far in 2018, the best of any Badger starting offensive lineman.

• RT David Edwards (redshirt junior) — He was pegged as a third-team AP All-American following 2017 and an AP preseason second-teamer heading into this campaign. At 6-7, he is tied with redshirt sophomore defensive end Isaiahh Loudermilk as the tallest player on the roster.

Projected Starters on Defense

• DE Kayden Lyles (redshirt freshman) — The former offensive lineman was converted to the defensive side of the ball prior to this season due to a lack of depth and injuries on the defensive line. Lyles has started the first five outings of 2018, but has yet to record a single sack or tackle for loss.

• DT Olive Sagapolu (senior) — He is the lone experienced player on the Badger defensive line, starting 10 games in 2017 and racking up three sacks and 3.5 tackles for loss. At 6-2, 342 pounds, Sagapolu is the anchor of a Wisconsin rush defense that is allowing 130.2 yards per game on the ground (43rd nationally).

• DE Matt Henningsen (redshirt freshman) — It was announced on Thursday that redshirt sophomore Isaiahh Loudermilk will miss Saturday's contest with injury, meaning Henningsen will get the start in his place. The redshirt freshman has played at least 21 snaps in all five affairs this year, but has just one tackle for loss and no sacks.

• LB Zack Baun (redshirt junior) — A foot injury caused him to miss the entire 2017 campaign, but Baun has rebounded nicely in 2018, starting all five games and earning a 72.3 overall grade from PFF. His 23 tackles are the fifth most on the defense.

• Ryan Connelly (fifth-year senior) — The veteran has posted some of the best statistics on the entire Badger defense, placing second in both tackles for loss (4.5) and sacks (one). However, his overall season grade of 62.9 by PFF is considered to be below average.

• T.J. Edwards (fifth-year senior) — The fifth-year senior has had an illustrious career in Madison, being tabbed a first-team AP All-American at last season's end, after he picked off four passes, racked up 75 stops and 11 tackles for loss. Edwards is once again the leader of the Badger defense, pacing the team in both sacks (two) and tackles for loss (5.5) through five outings.

• Tyler Johnson (redshirt junior) — The redshirt junior has been forced to start the last two games due to injuries in the Badger linebacking corps. While he had a minimal impact in a Sept. 22 win over Iowa, Johnson played incredibly well last week against Nebraska, recording five tackles, 2.5 stops behind the line of scrimmage and a forced fumble.

• CB Faion Hicks (redshirt freshman) — The youngster has been one of the few consistent players in Wisconsin's banged-up secondary, starting all five showdowns. PFF has stamped him with a 65.9 grade or higher in three of the Badgers' five affairs this season.

• CB Deron Harrell (redshirt freshman) — He is actually listed as questionable with a upper body ailment on Wisconsin's official injury report, but so is redshirt sophomore Caesar Williams, who started the team's first three games before getting injured. The inconsistency and health concerns at cornerback have been one of the huge reasons Wisconsin is yielding 219.6 passing yards per tilt, which ranks 54th nationally.

• S D'Cota Dixon (fifth-year senior) — He left last Saturday's victory against Nebraska with injury, but is expected to start against the Wolverines. The Badgers severely need his veteran presence and outstanding play (PFF has tagged him with a 77.3 overall grade) in their secondary.

• S Eric Burrell (redshirt sophomore) — Redshirt freshman Scott Nelson has started the first five affairs at this spot, but will be forced to sit out the first half against Michigan after he was slapped with a targeting call in the third quarter last week against Nebraska. The start will be the first of Burrell's career, and he has only averaged 14.5 snaps in four games this season.

Projected Starters on Special Teams

• K Rafael Gaglianone (redshirt senior) — He has made all 22 of his extra points and connected on five of his six field goal attempts. In fact, his only miss came from 42 yards in the waning seconds of the three-point loss to BYU on Sept. 15.

• P Anthony Lotti (junior) — The veteran punter has been underwhelming in 2018, averaging just 39.9 yards on 17 boots. Lotti's last two outings have been his two poorest of the season, tallying 37.1 yards per attempt against Iowa and 35.0 versus Nebraska.

Biggest Strength on Offense

"How efficient the unit has been," Veldhuis revealed. "Wisconsin rarely beats themselves, and with Taylor running behind an experienced offensive line, the Badgers have done a good job of moving the ball consistently and setting up manageable third downs when they get there.

"On third downs, Wisconsin has done a good job of converting almost half the time — they're at 49.1 percent on the season, behind only Ohio State and Michigan in the Big Ten."

The Badgers' 49.1 conversion percentage is actually 18th best in the entire country. Oddly enough, it is better than last year's mark of 48.6 percent, which was good enough to rank fourth in the nation at the end of 2017.

As Veldhuis noted, the Badgers' efficient offense often allows them to be in third-and-manageable, seeing as how they're averaging 6.8 yards per play, which is good for 16th best in the country.

On the flip side, Michigan's third-down defense hasn't been as stout in 2018 as it was last year. The Wolverines are allowing opponents to convert at a 34.1 percent rate (36th), while last season's unit only yielded 26.1 percent (first).

Biggest Weakness on Offense

"It's their lack of explosive plays," the analyst confirmed. "Despite bringing back most of last year’s offense, Wisconsin has been moving down the field one chunk at a time instead of shortening the field with some bigger plays.

"It creates problems when you have to drive 75 yards, because you will eventually run into a third down you can’t convert.

"If the Badgers could start breaking off bigger plays, it would help their offense a lot."

The lack of explosiveness has been especially evident in the passing game this season.

Hornibrook has only posted four plays through the air of 30 yards or more, which ranks the Badgers 116th in America.

Michigan's defense, on the other hand, has only surrendered six passing plays north of 30 yards (29th).

In fact, the Wolverine defense has been one of the best in college football at not allowing huge chunks of yardage — they've given up only 16 plays of 20 yards or more all year, which is good for 13th in the FBS (Football Bowl Subdivision).

Biggest Strength on Defense

"The Badgers have done a good job of keeping teams out of the end zone and forcing field goals in the red zone," Veldhuis said. "They are second in the Big Ten in allowing scores on 73 percent of their red zone possessions, and teams have scored touchdowns in the red zone just 53 percent of the time.

"I think you have to give credit to their young defense for standing tall when they get backed up, but it would make their lives easier if they could start heading off these long drives before they get close to the end zone."

This phase could be troublesome for a Michigan offense that has had a hard time scoring touchdowns in the red zone.

U-M is finding paydirt on just 64 percent of its red-zone trips, pegging it at a disappointing 70th in the land.

Granted, the Wolverines usually cash in with at least a field goal (88 scoring percentage in the red zone, 46th), but finishing drives with a touchdown will be crucial against the Badgers.

Biggest Weakness on Defense

"They haven’t been able to generate much of a pass rush so far this season," the insider observed. "Part of the problem is they’re working with a revamped front seven and a young group of defensive backs, so I think the coaching staff has been a little hesitant to put their secondary on an island very often.

"Their young defensive line hasn’t controlled the running game or the line of scrimmage as well as they have over the last few years, setting up easier third-down conversions for opponents.

"I think these are issues that will take time to sort out, so there doesn’t seem to be a quick fix coming down the pipeline."

The statistics Wisconsin's defensive line has produced this season have been dreadful.

Their 25 tackles for loss rank 107th nationally, and their five sacks are 121st.

Granted, injuries have played a big factor, but the unit was bound to take a step back regardless after graduating two defensive line starters (Alec James and Conor Sheehy).

Michigan has actually done an outstanding job at not allowing plays to be stopped behind its line of scrimmage this year.

The Wolverines' 4.6 tackles for loss surrendered per outing rank 24th in America, and their average of 1.3 sacks yielded are 31st.

Veldhuis' Final Score Prediction

"It’s hard for me to be really confident in a prediction with so many injury question marks surrounding Wisconsin's defense, but even if everyone was healthy, I think I would still pick Michigan to win by about a touchdown or so," Veldhuis opined.

"If worst comes to worst and the Badgers are missing several defensive players, I think this could be more of a multi-score win, but we’ll have to see how the rest of the week shakes out.

"For now I’ll say go with this: Michigan 27, Wisconsin 17."

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