The Tale Of The Tape: What The Analytics Say About Michigan And Maryland

The No. 14 ranked Michigan Wolverines (6-2, 3-2 Big Ten) are coming off a big 45-14 rivalry victory over Notre Dame, and seems to be a team on the rise in the Big Ten. The Maryland Terrapins (3-5, 1-4 Big Ten), however, are a team that has slid after winning their first two games of the season. Maryland has lost three straight and five-of-six games, including a 52-10 loss at Minnesota last week.

We take a look at what the analytics say about the ascending Wolverines and the reeling Terrapins.

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The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)

Michigan: 12th nationally with a 18.5 FPI score

Maryland: 69th nationally with a -1.5 FPI score

Michigan edges out Maryland by a wide margin in FPI (shown above) and is the more efficient team on both sides of the ball, according to ESPN Team Efficiency scores.

Michigan

Overall: 20th in team efficiency with a score of 73.4

Offense: 41st in offensive efficiency with a score of 58.1

Defense: 9th in defensive efficiency with a score of 80.5

Maryland

Overall: 72nd in team efficiency with a score of 47.5

Offense: 97th in offensive efficiency with a score of 37.1

Defense: 83rd in defensive efficiency with a score of 46.2

Analysis: For the first time in three weeks, U-M ranks much higher than its opponent in these categories. The Wolverines made a jump from 55th in offensive efficiency last week to 41st coming into this week after the dominant performance against ND. U-M is improving, while Maryland is struggling in all facets.

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The SP+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from both play-by-play and drive data from all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). The components for SP+ reflect the components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives.

Michigan: 11th ranked with a SP+ rating of 21.1

Maryland: 56th ranked with a SP+ rating of 2.3

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) is a college football rating system based on opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, representing the per possession scoring advantage a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent.

Michigan

Overall: 17th ranked with a FEI score of .65

Offense: 44th ranked with an OFEI score of .35

Defense: 9th ranked with a DFEI score of .94

Maryland

Overall: 102nd ranked with a FEI score of -.37

Offense: 96th ranked with an OFEI -.35

Defense: 92nd ranked with a DFEI score of -.45

Analysis: In both SP+ and FEI ratings, U-M is the better and more complete team, and it isn't close. The Wolverines' offense is becoming more efficient, and the defense is only improving in that area, as well.