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Published Nov 1, 2019
The Tale Of The Tape: What The Analytics Say About Michigan And Maryland
Clayton Sayfie  •  Maize&BlueReview
Staff Writer
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@CSayf23

The No. 14 ranked Michigan Wolverines (6-2, 3-2 Big Ten) are coming off a big 45-14 rivalry victory over Notre Dame, and seems to be a team on the rise in the Big Ten. The Maryland Terrapins (3-5, 1-4 Big Ten), however, are a team that has slid after winning their first two games of the season. Maryland has lost three straight and five-of-six games, including a 52-10 loss at Minnesota last week.

We take a look at what the analytics say about the ascending Wolverines and the reeling Terrapins.

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Comparison: ESPN's Football Power Index

The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)

Michigan: 12th nationally with a 18.5 FPI score

Maryland: 69th nationally with a -1.5 FPI score

Michigan edges out Maryland by a wide margin in FPI (shown above) and is the more efficient team on both sides of the ball, according to ESPN Team Efficiency scores.

Michigan

Overall: 20th in team efficiency with a score of 73.4

Offense: 41st in offensive efficiency with a score of 58.1

Defense: 9th in defensive efficiency with a score of 80.5

Maryland

Overall: 72nd in team efficiency with a score of 47.5

Offense: 97th in offensive efficiency with a score of 37.1

Defense: 83rd in defensive efficiency with a score of 46.2

Analysis: For the first time in three weeks, U-M ranks much higher than its opponent in these categories. The Wolverines made a jump from 55th in offensive efficiency last week to 41st coming into this week after the dominant performance against ND. U-M is improving, while Maryland is struggling in all facets.

Comparison: Football Outsiders' SP+ Ratings

The SP+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from both play-by-play and drive data from all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). The components for SP+ reflect the components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives.

Michigan: 11th ranked with a SP+ rating of 21.1

Maryland: 56th ranked with a SP+ rating of 2.3

Football Outsiders' FEI Ratings

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) is a college football rating system based on opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, representing the per possession scoring advantage a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent.

Michigan

Overall: 17th ranked with a FEI score of .65

Offense: 44th ranked with an OFEI score of .35

Defense: 9th ranked with a DFEI score of .94

Maryland

Overall: 102nd ranked with a FEI score of -.37

Offense: 96th ranked with an OFEI -.35

Defense: 92nd ranked with a DFEI score of -.45

Analysis: In both SP+ and FEI ratings, U-M is the better and more complete team, and it isn't close. The Wolverines' offense is becoming more efficient, and the defense is only improving in that area, as well.

Michigan Offense vs. Maryland Defense

The U-M offense continued its upward trajectory against ND. In the rainy and windy conditions, however, it did not need to pass the ball much in the 45-14 blowout win. Senior quarterback Shea Patterson threw just 12 times, completing 6 passes for 100 yards and 2 touchdowns.

The Maryland defense ranks 46th in overall defense with an 84.8 grade, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). U-M's offense ranks 45th in overall offense with a PFF grade of 76.9.

A note on PFF grades — a single-game grade of about 64 is considered average. National rank includes FBS and FCS teams.

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