Michigan faces a host of questions to answer, if it plays football next fall (or spring). The biggest boil down to three.
One, how is an 80-percent new starting offensive line going to develop? Two, how does the new guy in the most scrutinized position besides POTUS react? Three, how does the Michigan defense perform — not in 11 warm-up games, but in the regular-season finale?
Before answering those, a quick word about playing the season, period. Many, including TheWolverine.com contributor Tom Crawford, are leaning toward the notion that there won’t be a football season, due to COVID-19 risks.
There are nearly 200 million reasons arguing against that stance. That’s roughly Michigan’s athletic budget in dollars, and if you wipe out football for a year, you wipe out everything else. According to USA Today figures in the 2018 fiscal year, Michigan stood second in the nation in profiting after expenses from football ($74.8 million).
U-M also led the nation in covering for non-revenue sports losses ($39.9 million). In other words, if football goes, it all goes.
That’s not to say U-M Athletic Director Warde Manuel — or any other AD, university president or NCAA chief — will take big chances with people’s health. But if there’s any way to play reasonably safely, in a shortened schedule, even a March-into-May slate, don’t bet against it.
That said, on to the questions.
Redshirt sophomore right tackle Jalen Mayfield emerges as the sole survivor starter from the 2019 line. That doesn’t bother former U-M All-American Jon Jansen a whole lot. He’s seen what’s coming, and he’s convinced the Wolverines will be fine up front.
He told us so, and repeated his insistence to Michigan Radio team partner and sideline reporter Doug Karsch.
“Talking with Jon Jansen has me feeling very good about the offensive line,” Karsch offered. “He LOVES some of the young kids. We had two starters last year that will be good at the tackle spots, in Mayfield and [redshirt junior Andrew] Stueber or [redshirt sophomore] Ryan Hayes. Stueber is like getting a starter back, in my estimation.
“Hayes started and looked good enough. He looked like a kid who could use an offseason in the weight room, and I presume he is picking things up and putting them down appropriately in the offseason. I feel good about the offensive line.”
He’s not as sure how to feel about the quarterback spot. Redshirt junior Dylan McCaffrey has the on-field experience upper hand, while redshirt sophomore Joe Milton possesses the size (6-5, 245) and athleticism that makes onlookers ponder “if only” about his touch on throws.
No spring practice means advantage McCaffrey, according to Karsch.
“I think the guy with more experience has quite the leg up in the quarterback battle,” Karsch said. “This was destined to be a Joe Milton-Dylan McCaffrey battle. It could still happen, but it struck me that Milton needed the reps and Milton needed spring ball, and Milton needed that just a little bit more than McCaffrey.
“That doesn’t mean you might not see a change once the season starts. From a handicapping standpoint, I think that first snap is more likely to be McCaffrey now.
He does add: “Milton’s ability wows people. He could be a factor when it’s all said and done. His physical traits, his arm strength — it’s impressive.”
Michigan Radio play-by-play broadcaster Jim Brandstatter cautions: “I also know that Dylan has had some injuries that Joe has not had. Quarterbacks always get this rap on them that they’re China dolls, or injury prone, or … I think it’s a crock. But Dylan has had a couple of injuries that kept him from playing that Joe has not had.
“McCaffrey has had more time on the field when the game is on the line. That helps him, from an experience standpoint. But I don’t discount Milton’s talent and ability to play the game.”
They both agree Michigan has at least the potential to be very good behind center.
It’s ability to slow down the Buckeyes in the finale doesn’t project well, based on recent results. And although it’s just one game, it’s The Game when it comes to the move from good to great, from also ran to Big Ten champion, to playing in Indianapolis, to making the playoffs.
That’s a big, big leap. It’s the kind of jump everyone was convinced could not be made from 1968 (when Ohio State hung 50 on the Wolverines) to 1969. We’re not pushing a comparison here, because folks did that last fall and still wound up with Buckeye-induced scoring whiplash.
But somehow, at some point, some Michigan team has to stick a foot in the ground and not give way. The ’69 crew came in awash in talent, supremely confident, and found an edge along the way.
Defensive back Barry Pierson picked off three passes in the Wolverines’ iconic 24-12 upset, among the six interceptions U-M snagged against the “unbeatable” ’69 Buckeyes. He noted a schematic tipoff helped tip the scales.
“Michigan was running the same offense that Ohio State was running,” Pierson said. “We knew everything that was going to happen. Then they picked up a little tendency that Ohio State had. Every time they sent a play in motion, they were going to pitch the ball. They weren’t going to give it to [All-American running back] Jim Otis.
“So when the back didn’t go in motion, they were going to give it to Jim Otis. Halfway through the game, we were all saying to ourselves, ‘This is working perfect.’ Sure enough, that was the case.
“That’s what beat them, the fact that we picked up on that. They didn’t have a chance.”
Michigan hasn’t given itself a chance lately. Certainly, the OSU offense of 2018-19 is more diversified and tougher to slow down than Woody Hayes’ execution-oriented ’69 model.
The point is finding the talent, and discovering a schematic advantage to make it happen.
“I think they’ve all felt they had a great opportunity to win,” Brandstatter said of recent Michigan teams. “They’ve all been confident. It’s a matter of just knowing and doing and going out there and getting it done. You’ve got to go out there, no matter who you are, thinking we’re going to win this football game.”
Against all evidence, and all odds — just like in 1969.
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