Ranking Big Ten football coaches

Our Rankings Series returns!

We are going to lead off with the coaches of the Big Ten. While the Big Ten East returns all of the same coaches, the West has three new coaches including two pretty big names.

I always try to take emotion out of it, so I have created an algorithm that considers the following factors;
Overall win pct
B1G win pct (previous conference considered for new coaches)
Division and Conference titles
Playoff appearances
B1G and National coach of the year honors

After plugging in all the data we saw some movement, including a new #1.

Leading Purdue is first time head coach Ryan Walters. Jeff Brohm led the Boilermakers to the Big Ten Championship game last season and then accepted the head coaching position at his alma matter Louisville.

Walters come to Purdue from Illinois where he served as defensive coordinator for the last two seasons. In 2022, Illinois was one of the best defenses in the country, ranking 2nd in points allowed, 3rd in total defense, and 1st in takeaways.

This run of coaches we're going to call Big Ten East Hot Seats.

We start with Maryland's Mike Locksley. Locksley moves up one spot to #13.

Look, Maryland has won 7 and 8 games the last two seasons, better than 3 and 2 the previous year, but that's still finishing with a losing record in conference. Locksley is one of three coaches in the Big Ten with a losing record and the one with lowest record in conference at .289. Locksley gets a difficult slate having to play Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State every year, that will change starting in 2024.

Hopes and expectations were high with Greg Schiano returning to Rutgers after coaching in the NFL and a stay as Ohio State's DC. Schiano is heading into year 4 of his second stint in Jersey with a 12-22 (6-20) record.

Schiano deals with the East Division like Locksley, but Schiano gets a small boost from his previous success at Rutgers. However, most of the players Schiano is recruiting weren't born during the 2006 season, the one and only time Schiano finished the season with a ranked team. How much time does Schiano have to turn it around at Rutgers?

Tom Allen continues to get a boost from his Big Ten Coach of the Year season in the Covid shortened 2020 season. That season continues to look more and more like a mirage however. Indiana is one historically one of the worst programs in college football, so Allen's 2020 season means a lot, and they simply love the coach. But Allen has gone 6-18 (2-16) that last two seasons.

Allen was given a massive contract after that 2020 season. It would cost Indiana $25.5M to fire Allen before December 1, 2023, and $20.8M any time after. That number drops to $7.95M next year, and that number may still be too big for Indiana to move on. The Hoosiers aren't going to like winning 0-2 conference games a year, but Allen likely has a few years to get Indiana to the middle.

Our biggest drop and highest ranked potential hot seat coach is Michigan State's Mel Tucker.

Now, Tucker isn't going to end up on a real hot seat after a getting a fully guaranteed $95M contract, but things could get uncomfortable in East Lansing. While the data counts the 2020 season, it's fair to say Tucker was given an incredibly tough hand with Dantonio's late retirement and the pandemic.

Obviously 2021 was a massive success which equaled a massive new contract, but with Kenneth Walker gone, Michigan State went 5-7 (3-6) in 2022, with losses to every Big Ten East team except Rutgers. A big bounce back year and last season looks like an anomaly, but another disappointing year and that 2021 season starts to look like the exception to what otherwise makes Tucker a below .500 coach.

This is one where the data beats out the emotion.

I would have expected Matt Rhule to be higher on the list, but this is one where data hurts narrative. Throwing out Rhule's time in the NFL, and his hire to Nebraska is all about the perception Rhule rebuilds programs.

Rhule won 10 games in consecutive seasons at Temple then took the job at Baylor and completed one of the more difficult turn arounds in recent memory. Baylor was mired in one of the most appalling scandals under Art Briles in 2016. In 2017, in Rhule's first year Baylor won only 1 game, but by 2019 the Bears were in the Big 12 Championship game. Rhule left that year for Carolina Panthers.

Rhule simply hasn't stayed anywhere long enough to build up a winning resume. He takes over a lost Nebraska program that had to fire its former National Champion quarterback Scott Frost. Can Rhule bring the Huskers back to the top of college football, and if he does will he stay?

Hard to believe PJ Fleck is entering year 7 at Minnesota. He is .500 in the conference but has gotten Minnesota close in his 5 seasons, including 2018 where he won Big Ten Coach of the Year and lost the tiebreaker for the Big Ten West.

The Gophers have won 9 games for consecutive seasons and been in the mix for the West Division title each year. He has a 4-0 bowl record and Minnesota right in the middle of the pack. Has he hit his ceiling in Minnesota?

Pat Fitzgerald has been a legend for his alma mater Northwestern. While the Wildcats have to be a developmental program, which means up and down seasons, he has managed to win nearly half his B1G games in Evanston and has won two Big Ten West titles earning Big Ten and National Coach of the year honors.

That said, last year was the worst season yet for Fitzgerald with Northwestern going 1-11 with a gift win over Frost's Nebraska in the season opener in Ireland. Fitzgerald's longevity gets him higher on the list, but if 2023 is closer to 2022 and not 2018, he is going to start to plummet.

When Illinois hired Bret Bielema many thought it was the perfect fit. The question was would he be able to recapture the type of Big Ten success he had at Wisconsin or was he going to be closer to what we saw at Arkansas.

The trajectory in Champaigne is positive on the surface, but there are reasons to be skeptical. Illinois showed fight in Bielema's first season despite going 5-7 and they started 2022 7-1 and were the favorites to win the Big Ten West. After an ugly loss to Michigan State, Illinois lost a must win game against division rival Purdue. They would hang with a battered Michigan team before eventually losing 17-19. Illinois would finish the year 1-4 with the lone win coming against Northwestern.

So, while the 8-5 2022 season feels like a move in the right direction, a bad season and Bielema will slide down the list.

James Franklin is one of the more polarizing coaches in the conference. While he has won 11 games now four times after going 11-2 in 2023, he has also won only 7 games three times.

Franklin's 2016 Big Ten Championship saw him garner Coach of the Year honors. Franklin and Jim Harbaugh used to face similar narratives, with Franklin winning the games he should, but having enough ugly losses to tarnish his resume. Beating everyone but Michigan and Ohio State makes you third best team in the conference, if Franklin can win one of or both of those games and find his way to Indy in 2023, he likely becomes the third ranked coach in the conference.

Ferentz is by far the most tenured Big Ten head coach, leading the Hawkeyes since 1999. In that time, he has won 2 conference championships and represented the Big Ten West twice in the current format. While Ferentz also runs a developmental program similar to Northwestern which leads to up and down seasons, the four-time Big Ten coach of the year has won nearly 60% of his games in Iowa.

Just when Hawkeyes fans are ready to move on, he's good for an 11-win season. Last year tested fans as Iowa had one of the nation's best defenses but one of the worst offenses, possibly ever under Kirk's son, Brian. Another disappointing season and Ferentz and Iowa have to consider is it time to say thanks for the memories?

Wisconsin holds down the 3 spot after firing Paul Chryst last season and replacing him with Luke Fickell. Chryst, a former Badger QB, was successful in his time at Madison, but Wisconsin chose to move on after a 2-3 start. Interim coach and former Badger LB Jim Leonhard felt he did enough to earn the full time gig, but Wisconsin chose to go after Fickell.

Fickell spent two decades in the Big Ten, playing and coaching with Ohio State. He coached at Cincinatti the last six seasons, going 57-18, winning three conference championships, and earning a playoff berth in 2021 where he was recognized by a half dozen organizations as the best coach in college football.

Fickell is an outside the box hire for Wisconsin who tends to stay with people connected to the program, but if he can duplicate his success, he could be the coach to get the Badgers over the hump and bring them to national relevance.

This feels like a shot at Ryan Day, and it's not.

Including his interim run in 2018, Day is a ridiculous 45-6 (31-2). The Buckeyes have never finished ranked lower than 6th in his four seasons as head coach. Yet, fans in Columbus were calling for Day to be fired after losing to Michigan 45-23 at the end of the 2022 season. USC's loss to Utah in the Pac 12 Championship Game opened up the door for redemption with Ohio State getting a back door berth in the College Football Playoff. Ohio State nearly beat eventual National Champion Georgia, and the narrative heading into 2023 is significantly better than if Ohio State was forced to play another NY6 bowl while Michigan was in the playoff.

Ohio State recruits an elite level on a tier with the likes of Alabama and Georgia. Many programs would kill for a season the Buckeyes consider a down year, but Michigan's rise has fans of the Buckeyes nervous. You can't deny Day's success in the win-loss column, but is Ohio State a machine that could win 11 games every year regardless of who is coach?

The 2020 season that saw most Michigan fans ready to move on from Jim Harbaugh feels like a lifetime ago.

Michigan is now 25-3 (17-1) in the last two seasons, with two consecutive wins over the rival Buckeyes, two Big Ten Championships, and two College Football Playoff berths. Harbaugh has turned around his beloved Wolverines and not only has them back at the top of college football, but he has them in position to potentially win a National Championship.

As good as Michigan has been historically, it has 1 National Championship since 1950 and it has been 26 years since the 1997 title. 2022 proved 2021 was no fluke, another similar or better season in 2023 and Harbaugh and Michigan will be considered part of the elite tier of programs in college football. If Harbaugh can win it all in 2023, he will cement his place as the best coach in the Big Ten, his legacy at Michigan, and paired with his success everywhere else he has been, he should be considered one of the best coaches in football history.

---

Discuss this article with our community on our premium message boards

Not a subscriber to Maize & Blue Review? Sign up today to gain access to all the latest Michigan intel M&BR has to offer

Follow our staff on Twitter: @JoshHenschke, @Berry_Seth14, @TrevorMcCue, @DennisFithian, @BrockHeilig, @JimScarcelli, @lucasreimink, @JaredHalus

Subscribe to our podcasts: Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts and Spotify

Check out Maize & Blue Review's video content on YouTube

Follow Maize & Blue Review on social media: Facebook, Twitter, TikTok, and Instagram