The Michigan Wolverines are off to a 5-0 start in 2021, which is progress few expected when the season began. It has lent credence to the idea that the reboot is working and has people thinking bigger when it comes to what this season could be.
Michigan is in the thick of Big Ten play and the punches will only get heavier as the season goes on. The program will be defined by what comes next and plenty of challenges that lie ahead.
ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) still gives the Wolverines a favorable outlook with a record projection in the range of 10-2 and ranks them fifth in all of college football. FPI also gives Michigan an 18.5% chance at winning the conference and a 4.5% shot at going undefeated.
Here, we will rank Michigan's remaining games from least to most difficult based on FPI's win probabilities following Week 5.
Oct. 23 vs. Northwestern: 96% chance of victory
The year-to-year up-down trend for Northwestern has continued in 2021. The Wildcats found a way to win the Big Ten West last season but have come down to earth. Wins over Indiana State and Ohio are the lone bright spots for Pat Fitzgerald's teams so far. Losses to Michigan State and Duke were tough, but they enter a bye week coming off of a 56-7 pounding by Nebraska. This is Michigan's biggest "gimme" the rest of the season.
Nov. 6 vs. Indiana: 89.3% chance of victory
Even when the Hoosiers are less talented than they are now, they have always given Michigan fits. Indiana was a preseason darling after its breakout 2020 season, but they are another program that has crashed this season. Indiana sits at 2-3 and now goes through a stretch where they play both Michigan State and Ohio State following a bye. There might not be anything left of them when they come to Ann Arbor in November.
Nov. 20 at Maryland: 83.3% chance of victory
Similar to Indiana, Maryland was a team that garnered a decent amount of preseason hype. They backed it up for a bit with a 4-0 start to the season, but a 51-14 loss to Iowa showed where they are in the pecking order of Big Ten contenders. They boast an explosive passing offense led by quarterback Taulia Tagavailoa but are fairly one-dimensional otherwise.
Oct. 9 at Nebraska: 63.2% chance of victory
The Cornhuskers' performance in a Week 0 loss to Illinois did little to suggest Scott Frost was close to breaking through at his alma mater. Nebraska has played pretty good football since, pushing Oklahoma and Michigan State to the brink in consecutive weeks. They followed that up with a 56-7 win over Northwestern last week. Quarterback Adrian Martinez is mobile and dangerous and Michigan will be dealing with a fired-up crowd in a primetime game. The Wolverines have the talent advantage here, but they have their work cut out for them on Saturday night.
Oct. 30 at No. 11 Michigan State: 57.9% chance of victory
Michigan will always be judged for how it performs the last Saturday in November, but the rivalry tilt against Michigan State may have more meaning in the short term. MSU embarrassed the Wolverines in their building last year in what was one of their only highlights of last season. Now, the program has momentum under head coach Mel Tucker and has matched Michigan's 5-0 start. Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines cannot afford to lose this series a second year in a row. They must take care of business in their backyard.
Nov. 13 at No. 4 Penn State: 51.7% chance of victory
Michigan and Penn State were in similar situations last season as blue blood programs that struggled mightily. Both have roared back with a vengeance this year and have emerged as serious threats in the Big Ten East. This has the makings of a divisional race elimination game. The Wolverines will be looking for their first win in Happy Valley since 2015.
Nov. 27 vs. No. 7 Ohio State: 48.8% chance of victory
FPI had this game as a Michigan win for a few weeks, but OSU's resurgence over the last two games has tilted the odds a bit. Most Wolverine fans would take a coin flip chance against the Buckeyes given the series' recent history, but there is a lot of football to play before then. Michigan has to keep stacking wins and progress, then see what happens when the clock hits zero on Thanksgiving weekend.
---
• Talk about this article inside The Fort
• Watch our videos and subscribe to our YouTube channel
• Listen and subscribe to our podcast on iTunes
• Learn more about our print and digital publication, The Wolverine
• Sign up for our daily newsletter and breaking news alerts
• Follow us on Twitter: @TheWolverineMag, @Balas_Wolverine, @EJHolland_TW, @JB_ Wolverine, @Clayton Sayfie, @anthonytbroome and @DrewCHallett
• Like us on Facebook
