Sharpening The Edge is a weekly series where we take a look at the sports betting side of various games across the landscape of college football, college basketball, the NBA, and the NFL.

I’ve been making picks for the last four years and kept track of my record throughout. Like any bettor at that volume, you’re hoping to finish around 52%, realistically. Otherwise, you’re moving to Vegas and making your 9-to-5 a thing of the past.

This weekly column’s main objective is to be informative and worthy of your time if you’re looking to a) learn about sports betting, or b) you simply just want picks or c) you want to observe and make fun of me when they’re wrong.

My all-time record is 611-583-17

NCAAF: 115-102-6 (7-3 this month)

NCAAB: 214-207

NFL: 6-3 in 2021, 48-51 overall

NCAAB: 114-107

In 2019’s first weekend of March Madness, I had a record of 42-21.

In December 2020, I went 40-20 across NCAAF, NCAAB, and the NBA.

From October 2020 to February 2021, I went 44-24 in the NBA, including a 23-5 start to the year.

In the past three college football seasons, I’m 96-90-6.

With all that being said, I’m looking forward to providing you with my picks each week and diving into the deeper side of the ever-growing industry of legal sports betting.

For the first edition, I’ll make three picks across college football. We’ll expand on leagues and the volume of picks as we go.

Let’s rock.

Michigan State is an excellent football team, as its 8-0 record and No. 3 ranking in the initial College Football Playoff rankings show.

That being said, sports aren’t all about who the better team is, and neither is betting on them.

It’s about trends, line movements, sharp money, the money-percentages compared to the tickets, matchup data, and about a million other things … I know, it’s a lot. But that’s why I’m here to make this easier for you.

At the end of the day, it’s about observing all of these factors, then coming up with your own conclusion.

When it comes to the Spartans, they’re coming off the most important game of the season in an emotional victory over No. 7 Michigan at home.

Now, they have to travel to Purdue for a road game against a Boilermakers team that’s already played spoiler once this season, defeating at-the-time No. 2 Iowa on the road following the Hawkeyes’ top-10 win over Penn State the week before.

Purdue is scrappy and has arguably the most effective receiver in the conference in David Bell. After MSU’s defense allowed over 500 yards to Michigan, most of it coming through the air, I think the Boilermakers will have a chance to hang around in this one to the end.

Here’s the kicker: a monstrous 85-percent of the tickets are on the Spartans, but only 63-percent of the money. Couple that with this line opening at -3 and not moving an inch despite the lopsided bet-percentage, and this has big-money-bettors on Purdue written all over it -- AKA, the sharp money, write that down and remember that for future reference.

I don’t like Purdue outright here, but I love the line at -3 or better, and I’d buy it as low as +2.5.

Pick: Purdue +3 and down to +2.5.

Northwestern is hosting No. 22 Iowa for a nightcap in Suburban Chicago. I emphasize Suburban Chicago because there is, quite literally, zero home-field advantage for the Wildcats in any game but especially one in Week 9 when they’re 3-5.

Let’s read the trends here … Northwestern just got bashed in back-to-back weeks by Michigan & Minnesota, and Iowa dropped two straight to Purdue & Wisconsin.

The difference between the two is Iowa has a halfway decent football team, whereas Northwestern is simply awful.

But what they each have in common is abysmal offenses and defenses that don’t get penalized.

Iowa’s offense is 102nd in the country in passing yards per game and 114th in rushing yards per game.

Northwestern’s offense is 94th in passing yards per game and 71st in rushing yards.

Iowa’s defense is 25th overall in opponent pass yards per game and Northwestern’s ranks two spots behind it at 27th.

Both teams rank below 75th in scoring offense.

The only “kicker” here, matchup-wise, is Iowa’s scoring defense, which ranks 3rd nationally, in comparison to Northwestern’s, which ranks 82nd nationally.

But despite the unexpectedly, somewhat even, matchup data there’s a monstrous signal yelling at all of us to pick Iowa.

This line opened at -8.5, and is now up to -11.5 on Thursday afternoon. That’s a steam line movement in Iowa’s favor.

Do we really think Northwestern is going to move the ball on Iowa’s defense? And if it does, I’m not betting against Iowa coming off back-to-back losses in a right-the-ship setting.

Though the under at 40.5 is attractive here, I’m riding the Hawkeyes as double-digit road favorites.

Pick: Iowa -11.5 (up to -14.5)

Things are about to get tricky. This may sound confusing so stick with me.

So Wake Forest is undefeated and No. 9 in the country. Like it or not, that’s a real sentence.

This is the first week the Demon Deacons are underdogs since Week 1 when they crushed Virginia as 3.5-point dogs.

North Carolina is 4-4 overall and a depressing 1-4 against the spread (ATS), and it’s coming off of a loss to Georgia Tech as a 14-point road favorite.

So why the heck are the Tar Heels favored?

Not only are they favored, but the line has actually begun moving in their favor. It opened as a pick ‘em and is now up to North Carolina -2.5

Despite Wake Forest garnering 68-percent of the opening bets, the line moved in North Carolina’s direction.

Remember earlier when we talked about money percentages? The Tar Heels are getting 55-percent of the bills at a 23-percent differential compared to tickets.

That’s convincing, but not as convincing as this …

North Carolina ranks 4th in sacks allowed compared to Wake Forest’s abysmal No. 71 ranking defensively. So they’re not getting to the quarterback, who is a first-round NFL prospect in Sam Howell.

If Howell is going to have all day, then I am all over this Tar Heels line on top of everything else convincing me to hop on it.

But I’ll add this … North Carolina’s offensive red zone efficiency ranks 21st compared to Wake Forest’s defensive red zone efficiency ranking of 95th.

It's the lines like this that pop off the page for not making any sense, according to records and rankings, when Vegas makes its most money.

Give me Mack Brown’s team with the upset bid.

Pick: North Carolina -2.5

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