Staff Predictions: Michigan vs. Alabama

Gone are the days when Michigan is just happy to be in the discussion of one of the best in the country. The timing has never been better to grab the headlines and prove that they are the best, no matter what has been said about the team all season. I've long said the Wolverines are the most complete team left in the country and I stand by that.

While it would be crazy to predict some sort of blowout on either side, Alabama deserves to be where it is today.

However, I think the Wolverines have learned their lessons from the last two CFP appearances, taken their lumps and will finally get over the hump.

I think this will be a defensive affair with the Wolverines forcing Bama into more mistakes, which ultimately be the difference here.

Michigan 23, Alabama 20

Michigan. Alabama. Rose Bowl. Does it get better than this?

There is a clear disconnect for this game between public perception and what Vegas and the analytics believe will happen in this game.

If you believe in the historic narratives, Jim Harbaugh can’t win a bowl game and Nick Saban and Alabama are unstoppable with a month to prepare. Average Joe’s are all in on this narrative and betting Bama hard, but Vegas is keeping Michigan the favorite despite the massive liability.

Analytics say Michigan is favored and it’s not particularly close. SP+ has Michigan winning 69% of the time and a score projection of 29-20.

The truth is, this isn’t the Alabama team we are used to seeing. Talented, of course, but young and making more mistakes than years past. They can make explosive plays, but not at will. The defense has stars, but isn’t the cohesive unit Bama typically has.

Michigan is as efficient as we’ve ever seen in college football. They are deliberately slow on offense, but they maximize opportunities. Paired with the nation’s best defense they lead the country in Net Points per Drive. They are second in the nation in turnover margin and the least penalized team in the nation. They are cohesive and they don’t make mistakes.

I believe Michigan can keep the roof on the Bama offense. Milroe will get some runs, but Bama will struggle to score against the Michigan defense that has maximized bend don’t break. I’m siding with Vegas and analytics.

Michigan 28, Alabama 20

Third time’s a charm, right? This will be Michigan’s third consecutive trip to the College Football Playoff, and of the three national semifinal games, this one might be the toughest to predict. Not many people had high hopes for the Wolverines heading into the 2021 Orange Bowl against Georgia — even players have said they were, for lack of a better term, just happy to be there. Last season, in the 2022 Fiesta Bowl against TCU, Michigan was a heavy favorite and was expected to cruise to victory over the supposedly lowly Horned Frogs. Well, we all saw how that turned out. No one really knows how to gauge this year’s CFP matchup. No team has a clear edge at any position on the field. What we do know, though, is that this will be a college football spectacle for the ages. Two CFB blue-bloods in America’s most iconic stadium — it doesn’t get any better than this. Michigan will need to contain Jalen Milroe and his elite scrambling ability if it has any hopes of winning this game. Meanwhile, the Michigan offense will need to get going after facing three of college football’s best defenses in the last four games. In the end, sheer willpower and determination will lead Michigan to victory in this game. This is why so many guys came back — to get over this CFP hump. Meanwhile, as great as Nick Saban and Alabama have been, this Crimson Tide team isn’t as good as the Tide teams of the past. ‘Bama was one play away from its season being over — they’re practically playing with house money at this point. Alabama wants this game. Michigan needs it. James Turner kicks a game-winning field goal as time expires to send the Wolverines to the National Championship Game.

Michigan 24, Alabama 23

Michigan’s in a great position to win the Rose Bowl against Alabama. The month off should help players like JJ McCarthy, Drake Nugent & Will Johnson who all had late-season injuries.

UM has proven playmakers on offense with Blake Corum, Donovan Edwards, Roman Wilson, Cornelius Johnson and Colston Loveland, with a few wild cards to play on that side of the ball, like Semaj Morgan & possibly Alex Orji.

On defense, the Mike McDonald now Jesse Minter scheme has the Ravens currently #1 in points allowed per game on defense in the NFL while Michigan finished #1 in the same category this year. The ‘23 Maize & Blue defense is multiple, aggressive and has plus talent at every level. Alabama is dangerous for sure with the talented Jalen Milroe leading the way at quarterback, but a lot of people are getting a little too scared of Bama because of their name and Nick Saban.UM can match the Tide everywhere on the field and on the sideline. Time to start the new year out with a bang.

Michigan 27, Alabama 20

A month off seems like much longer considering the anticipation of this matchup, but the waiting is almost over. With this being the third straight time UM is in the CFP, we will see if the experience pays off against an Alabama team with a ton of talent and playing their best football at the right time. There are some difficult matchups for the Wolverines here, and Jalen Milroe’s skill set is something UM hasn’t seen at QB yet this season. But the Wolverines have an experienced, disciplined team, and if they play to those elements and stick to their principles, they have a great chance in this one. Michigan May not have an overly explosive passing game, but it is one of the more efficient ones in the country and can take advantage of a Bama secondary that is talented, but loose in the back end too often. Couple that with a Michigan defensive line that I think will have an understanding of how to contain Milroe and keep him inside the pocket and create some sacks, and it equals a narrow Michigan win and an opportunity to advance to the title game for the first time under Jim Harbaugh.

Michigan 28, Alabama 24

This is such an interesting matchup for so many reasons. It’s Saban Vs. Harbaugh, it’s the Rose Bowl, it’s Alabama vs. Michigan, it’s the Big Ten Vs. The “almighty” SEC. The most interesting part to me though is that these teams arrive here after very different regular seasons.

Michigan started as a top 2 team nationally and was crushing their opponents up until week 10 when they played PSU. Then, even without Jim Harbaugh, they won their two biggest games at Happy Valley and then beating the Buckeyes at home to end the regular season. Then they cruised to a 26-0 victory to win the Big Ten for the third season in a row.

Alabama on the other hand was dealt an early season loss at home to another playoff team in #3 Texas. They ended up going through a QB change shortly after that, before changing back to Jalen Milroe as they entered the more important part of their schedule. Milroe really did get clicking down the stretch, but he also didn’t face many high-quality defenses down the stretch run of the SEC either. Then they suddenly jumped up to the #4 spot in the playoff after they beat Georgia to win the SEC in what the committee deemed the best win in college football this season.

I personally believe too many people are just looking at the SEC title game where Bama beat the previous #1 team in the country and assuming Alabama will win this game too, based on the 1-game sample size. However; I think Georgia lost that game more than Alabama won it. I don’t think Alabama suddenly reached its potential and is now peaking at the right time, I think they just played the best game of the year against Georgia and the Bulldogs played their “C” game.

To me, the team that wins this game will be the defense that can keep the opposing QB from making plays outside the pocket. Both QBs are excellent once they break contain, as both can throw it downfield or take off and scramble for key first downs and even chunk plays if the field is left open.

I really believe Michigan is the best team remaining in the playoffs. They have the best defense left, and I think they have the most balanced offense left as well. They play great special teams, they don’t turn the ball over and are penalized very rarely. They play an extremely efficient brand of football and with all of their experience, including losing in these playoffs two years in a row, they are ready for a moment like this. I got Michigan winning this game and advancing to the National Title game.

Michigan 23, Alabama 20

Will it really be “third time's the charm" as the old saying goes? Michigan makes its first Rose Bowl appearance in 17 years and third straight CFP appearance. Losses to Georgia and TCU sting, but Michigan is battle-tested and ready to showcase the best version of themselves. Michigan takes on Alabama. The difference in the matchup will be the Wolverines' quarterback run game, playing a critical role with a healthy J.J. McCarthy. Michigan's defense will mostly contain Jalen Milroe, who is still able to hit on a couple of big plays downfield for scores. The Wolverines show new wrinkles on both sides of the ball and find a way to come out on top after forcing a turnover late in the game. Michigan advances to the national championship while playing their brand of football.

Michigan 24, Alabama 20

---

Discuss this article with our community on our premium message boards

Not a subscriber to Maize & Blue Review? Sign up today to gain access to all the latest Michigan intel M&BR has to offer

Follow our staff on Twitter: @JoshHenschke, @Berry_Seth14, @TrevorMcCue, @DennisFithian, @BrockHeilig, @JimScarcelli, @lucasreimink

Subscribe to our podcasts: Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts and Spotify

Check out Maize & Blue Review's video content on YouTube

Follow Maize & Blue Review on social media: Facebook, Twitter, TikTok, and Instagram