Michigan has been a program that doesn't get rattled, which is one of many factors why it's had so much success over the past three seasons. While their patience and overall mental makeup will be tested this week after tumultuous off-field issues with the Big Ten appear to be smoothed over, there is a game to be played after all. I do think Michigan gets a double-digit victory this weekend but it's definitely not going to be as easy as it has been this season. The Wolverines are better on both sides of the ball and if it can limit the Nittany Lions' rushing attack, does Drew Allar have the goods to beat a very good Michigan secondary? I just don't know if that happens. Michigan's wins and passes a big test.

Michigan 31, Penn State 17

Felt like this in the the summer and still feel like it now. Michigan beats Penn State in a low-scoring game with JJ McCarthy being the difference. Besides McCarthy, Roman Wilson and Colston Loveland have big days for the offense. On defense, Jaylen Harrell and Mason Graham lead the UM defense. Looking forward to a day of watching football and not thinking about politicians, judges, commissioners and lawyers.

Michigan 27, Penn State 17

Michigan has a chance to prove a lot of doubters wrong this weekend. A big game, on the road, a top-10 matchup. To reach their goals, first, the Wolverines must beat the Nittany Lions.

This game has been circled on the calendar for a long time. Penn State entered 2021 with expectations of crashing the Michigan-Ohio State battle. With a new highly touted QB in Drew Allar, two strong running backs making one of the best duos in the nation, and the country’s best left tackle leading their line.

Allar has been efficient, but not electric. Similar to the run game where Kaytron Allen has the longest run of 19 yards, and Nicholas Singleton 20 yards. Olumuyiwa Fashanu is the best pass-blocking tackle in the Big Ten, while the rest of the line play has not been elite.

Michigan is in a similar spot, with an X factor. Michigan’s RB duo has not been the same this year, efficient but hardly any explosive plays. The offensive line has elite play from Zak Zinter and others at times, but they aren’t the best OL in the nation this year. At QB, McCarthy is efficient, but at an absurd level. He’s a playmaker and a Heisman candidate.

Defensively, two of the best in the nation will meet in Happy Valley Saturday. Penn State has elite players at every level, and so does Michigan but with lots of depth. For me, the battle is which team can create the most pressure. Chop Robinson should play, and Michigan will be sending their four-horsemen.

At the end of the day, these are two pretty similar and even teams, but Michigan has the edge with McCarthy over Allar. McCarthy’s experience, not just playing but in games like this, will be the deciding factor. I expect Michigan’s run game to look better this week as well. Give me Michigan in a game that once they take the lead never really feels close.

Michigan 31, Penn State 13

In a spirit of full transparency, I picked Penn State to beat Michigan heading into the season. I’m normally not one who likes to backtrack on previous predictions, but through 18 combined games of football between Michigan and Penn State, I’ve seen enough from both teams to drastically change my pick heading into Saturday’s matchup. Michigan needs to win this game. The Big Ten West tiebreaker scenario that would be put into effect if Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State all end up 11-1 isn’t shaping up to end in Michigan’s favor, so this is, quite frankly, Michigan’s season being put on the line in Happy Valley. If the Wolverines lose this game, their odds of winning the Big Ten title drop as close to zero as they’ve been in the last three seasons. Luckily for Michigan, that won’t happen. Penn State mustered just 12 points against Ohio State, and to think the Nittany Lions’ non-explosive offense can do much better than that against Michigan is wishful thinking for Penn State fans. Michigan has allowed its opponents into the red zone just 11 times this season, and the Wolverines’ defense has allowed just one touchdown. Penn State will need to score from outside the red zone to win this game, but it hasn’t shown that capability on a consistent basis this season. Michigan scores 30 or more points for the 13th consecutive game and rolls Penn State.

Michigan 30, Penn State 13

Michigan meets its toughest test of the season to date with a Saturday afternoon matchup at Penn State. The Wolverines, with some added motivation from the off-the-field headlines surrounding the program, will be up for the challenge against a tough Nittany Lions defense. Penn State’s front will be very capable of giving UM’s o-line trouble, but JJ McCarthy and the UM receivers make enough plays to keep ahead of the sticks. Michigan’s defense will make it tough for Penn State to move the ball with consistency on offense as well.

Michigan 27, Penn State 14

The marquee game in all of college football for week 11 is Michigan versus Penn State. The Wolverines are heading into Happy Valley as favorites to play their stiffest test of the season. The Nittany Lions welcome Michigan’s top five-scoring offense as well as the nation's top passing, scoring and total defense. On the other hand, PUS boasts the number one rushing defense (just 60 yards per game), the second-best total defense and the third-best scoring defense. Expect this game to come down to quarterback play. J.J. McCarthy is playing like a Heisman Trophy contender and I expect that to continue. On the other hand, Drew Allar struggled against Ohio State to the tune of a 42.9% completion percentage and Penn State has struggled to hit on explosive plays. Michigan wins this game on the back of J.J. McCarthy, getting more big plays than the Nittany Lions (who will still have a few of their own).

Michigan 28, Penn State 24

Finally, we have a game where we find out how good this Michigan team really is. Penn State has one of the better home environments in the conference, so winning there almost never comes easy. This Nittany Lion defense is one of the best in the country and could give Michigan fits early on. Michigan’s defense should be able to keep Drew Allar and the Penn State offense in check, so I see this one as more of a low-scoring affair. I think with all the experience Michigan has on their roster, in addition to having the better QB in this game, Michigan should win this game in the end.

Michigan 24, Penn State 17