Last week: 0-4

Overall: 0-4

So much for that 25-9 start to last season reoccurring.

What a rough week. Illinois broke our hearts. Michigan's red zone offense kept its total against Colorado State three points from the over.

It's not the first time the system bit us in the tail, and it's not the last time.

Stay the course, y'all. Now, back to the board for this week.

Spread: MICH -51.5

Total: O/U 67

Michigan says over the 50-point mark in the spread despite a total under 70, which means Vegas, who gave U-M a team total of 59.5, meaning the predictive score is 60-7, finishing with a push on the total and a cover from Michigan.

The signals are battling.

Public bettors are all over the under given how large the number is. However, the number continues to climb because of the sharp money.

So, even though 85% of the money compared to 51% of the bets are on the under -- I'll side with the sharps on the over.

Pick: over 67

NCAAF

Alabama at Texas (12PM)

Two prolofic offenses who combined for over 110 points last week. Bryce Young, Bijan Robinson, and many more stars will take the field between these two blue bloods. I think Alabama's defensive front is its strength but quick release and blitz counters should work enough for Texas to score 17+. Meanwhile, Young and Alabama's offense should have a field day against another less-than-desirable Texas secondary. Nothing like an over at noon.

Pick: over 65

App. State at Texas A&M (3:30 PM)

Sharps are all over the Aggies. The line moved a bunch from 16 to nearly 20 now. AT 19.5, this is an advantageous play. App State is coming off of an emotional loss to North Carolina, where it went into overtime, and over 120 points were scored between the two teams. A&M is coming off a low-scoring output (36) offensively but a shutout defensively. I think the Aggie offense wants to respond and find some rhythm, and who better to do it against than the team who allowed over 60 points in Week 1? Plus, it's in Aggieland.

Pick: TAMU -19

Tennessee at Pitt (3:30 PM)

I'm all over the Vols, something I didn't think I'd say at this time last year. I like the quarterback play for Tennessee. Another thing I thought I'd never say. SP+, FPI, and Saragin all rank Tennessee much higher than humans. SP+ has Tennessee in the top 10 at No. 8. I think the Vols ae a lot better than the public believes they are. Pitt, off of an unbelievably emotional game against West Virginia, will move to 0-2 ATS in this 17-point loss to Tennessee.

Pick: TENN -6

Marshall at Notre Dame (2:30 PM)

I'm all over the Herd, coming off of a 55-3 win, traveling to Notre Dame, off of an emotional road loss, in a hangover game that Vegas is giving far too many points.

I don't think Vegas understands how experienced Marshall is at quarterback and along the defensive line.

Notre Dame will have issues scoring the ball this season and Marshall's defense should keep them honest, while the Herd's offense should challenge the Irish enough to keep this within three scores.

I'll watch on as Notre Dame wins 31-17 and take the cover.

Pick: Marshall +20.5

Sunday, 1 PM

DET + 4.5 -- Hard Knocks teams are 4-0 in openers against the spread. Dan Campbell is 1-0 in openers. I think Philly wins by 3, plus the sharps are on the Lions. Give me those edges.

IND/HOU over 46 -- I think Davis Mills is much better than he's being given credit for with this total. I get that the Colts' defense is good, but Mills with Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins, and Damien Pierce, should equate to 17-21 points. On the opposite side, the Colts could have one of the best offenses in the league, and Houston's defense will struggle all year.

TB/DAL under 50.5 -- Tampa Bay plays ball control and the Dallas O-line, much worse than in previous years, struggles against Todd Bowles' defensive designs. I think the Bucs get to the quarterback and don't foresee Ezekiel Elliott or Tony Pollard finding success on the ground. Dak Prescott should find CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz for a touchdown, and Tom Brady should find Mike Evans or Chris Godwin (and watch out for Russell Gage), but I don't think these teams will surpass 51.

Parlay:

Marshall +21.5

TAMU -16.5

Northwestern -9.5

Equals out to ~+450

Prop bet of the week: Chris Olave anytime TD scorer (+235)

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