STOCK REPORT will be a season-long feature where we rank and rate Michigan football players within their position groups. This is more than a depth chart as we consider the player's impact and potential. After each game, we will reassess the rankings as players see their stock rise while others may see their stock fall.
Not a great day for JJ McCarthy and the passing game, and the debate ranges on.
Let's be clear, JJ wasn't perfect, something we started to expect 7 weeks into the season on throws 20 yards or less. Once again though he was not bailed out by receivers. Without drops, McCarthy posts a 64.5% completion rate ~270 yards and 2 touchdowns. I am not here to pick sides in the "what's wrong with the passing game?" debate, mostly because I think it is more complicated than a singular issue. I am here to tell you what the numbers say, which is JJ wasn't perfect and the receivers don't need to be either, but this all continues to be 1 or 2 plays away from changing the narrative completely.
Broken record here with the rhythm conversation but it happened again in my opinion. I find myself liking the script Michigan starts with, frustrated by the remainder of the first half, and then confident in Michigan's second-half adjustments. JJ simply hasn't looked comfortable the last few weeks.
Does anything obvious stick out? Some of the positive trends Michigan has shown all season have flipped, but why?
Play action. 18.4% of dropbacks against Illinois, but the results were not there. 2/7 for 25 yards. However, JJ graded out with his highest passing grade situationally with 85.6. 3 pressures faced and 2 drops by receivers and the play-action game fell flat. So again, JJ did miss a throw here, but receiver drops and pressure getting home took out the PA game.
So was it pressure? Did the OL let JJ down? Yes and no. McCarthy did see pressure on 37% of his dropbacks, 14 pressures are high, especially for Michigan. JJ had one turnover-worthy play when facing pressure and another receiver drop. But McCarthy was 7/12 for 88 yards compared to 10/21 for 122 yards when in a clean pocket. Despite the pressure, JJ was throwing the ball in 2.46 seconds in a clean pocket and 3.24 seconds under pressure. So while yes the Illinois defense did a good job of creating pressure, McCarthy was far less successful in a clean pocket.
I don't have a data point to measure this but I do think some of the criticism about McCarthy's touch is fair. He seems to be throwing with a velocity far too often and not putting a touch on some of his throws, long or short. Knowing when to throw the changeup is important and was a crucial debate point regarding JJ heading into the season.
For me, I think there are things to clean up with design and execution. I think McCarthy is a first-year starter after being unable to throw for an entire off-season. Michigan's identity is clear;
Dominate and control the game through the run.
Play a methodical bend don't break defense that turns into suffocating when the time comes.
Be efficient in the passing game and do not turn the ball over.
The last point is where I went to the end and I think one play sums up my point perfectly.
To McCarthy's credit, he has limited the mistakes that many were concerned he would have. He is completing 67% of his passes for just under 8 yards an attempt. He has 14 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. He is managing the offense in the same that made Cade successful last year, but at what cost?
On this play, McCarthy thought he had a free play. He played without fear, he played with instinct and delivered I would argue one of his three best throws of the season, 45 air yards into a strong wind between two defenders and it hits Andrel Anthony right in the hands.
What Michigan is doing is working, they are 11-0 so I may not have a place to criticize Harbaugh or the coaching staff. But we have 10 games of evidence with JJ and 8 years with Harbaugh. To me, this feels like they are trying to push JJ through the offense peg instead of adapting the offense to JJ. Which again, until unsuccessful who am I to say they are wrong? I do wonder if there is a balance, and maybe we will see it next season, where you can continue with the identity but allow JJ to be JJ a little more, allow him to be more comfortable. Because make no mistake, as we saw against Illinois, JJ's ability to extend plays and turn mistakes into plus plays still wins games for Michigan.
Hard to discuss the running backs without addressing the obvious. We knew Michigan would be without Donovan Edwards heading into the game. Blake Corum was doing Blake Corum things before a hit to his knee took him out for the rest of the first half. Corum try to play in the second half, a great sign for the rest of his season, but unfortunately he was unable to continue.
Corum still had 18 carries for 106 yards and 1 touchdown before having to leave the game. He had his first fumble of the season on the play where he injured his knee.
He was absurd to start this game, with 10 missed tackles forced on those 18 carries and 3.53 yards after contact. He had 5 first downs with a 58.5% breakaway rating. He also added a 41 yard reception that was almost an 80+ yard touchdown. It was a great game for Corum that could have been even better. Now, we wait.
Unsurprising to anyone who follows Stock Report, Michigan found success with outside runs and their pin and pull scheme
CJ Stokes was expected to take on a larger role filling in for Edwards, but even before Corum's injury, he struggled to make an impact. Only 36 yards on 11 carries for Stokes, with 17 yards coming on one play.
STOCK UP: Isaiah Gash only had 3 carries for 6 yards but has jumped Tavierre Dunlap in the rushing attack. Where Gash made an impact was in the passing game. 4 targets with 3 receptions including a clutch 4th down grab after an earlier drop. We don't know how big, but Gash is going to have a role against Ohio State.
We addressed some of this with JJ. Let's just jump right in.
I've included Colston Loveland because of his amount of targets and with the injury to Schoon there just isn't much to chart with tight ends by themselves. It was an excellent game for the freshman who led the team in receiving yards and graded out above average in run and pass blocking.
For the receivers, it was a decent game for Cornelius Johnson. Michigan used the X receiver to capitalize on some of the soft cushions the Illinois secondary was giving. 5.8 yards average depth of target is not what you want to see from your top outside receiver, but those targets were going to Andrel Anthony.
Anthony saw 27 snaps against Illinois, only 5 less than Roman Wilson the primary slot receiver. I have had him in the Stock Up category for a few weeks because the offensive game plan has been focused on getting him more involved. At this point, opportunities are simply not leading to results. No receptions on 3 targets including another missed touchdown. For the season Anthony now has only 7 receptions on 18 targets for 80 yards. He is 2 for 7 with contested targets and has 2 drops.
For Wilson, it was another game where he simply was taken out of the game. He hasn't been the same since his injury, defenses have done a great job of capping him and he has struggled to get separation at times.
Ronnie Bell continues to be a perplexing WR1. He seems to get open more than any Michigan receiver and dominates in targets but struggles to complete catches in traffic, now 21.4% for the season.
We'll have to see if Michigan has indeed been holding plays back in the passing game for their matchup against Ohio State. 11 games into the season, unlike the run game, the passing game is not complicated. Many of the routes are simply breakout reads from the defenders. This has led to quite a few pass plays where the receiver and McCarthy have not been on the same page with which way the receiver should have cut.
Zak Zinter and Olu Oluwatimi are really good. I know, breaking news. Both are on track to be 2nd or 3rd round NFL Draft picks. It is no secret Olu is an absolute beast in the run game and he has settled into the scheme in the second half of the season. He was Michigan's best run blocker against Illinois and grades out as the best on the season.
Zinter also continues to grade out well in the run game, pairing with Olu for Michigan's pin-and-pull scheme. What has been impressive is the massive step each has taken in pass protection. Each allowed a pressure against Illinois, but they are the 2nd and 3rd best on the line in pass protection for the season.
The guy they are behind is Ryan Hayes. Hayes has missed a couple of games this season which has contributed to what has been a quiet but successful season for the left tackle. He had his best game of the season in pass protection against Illinois, allowing no pressures and grading out with Michigan's best pass-blocking grade of any lineman this season. He is Michigan's third-best run blocker behind Olu and Zinter. I have him #3 still, but the margins are not large between the top 3.
Trevor Keegan was out again this week but Giovanni El-Hadi filled in well. Michigan's depth has paid off this season with a lineman in and out almost every week. Keegan was just starting to get on a consistent tear before having to miss the game against Illinois. Both guards have been solid to above average at times, so there isn't a major concern here heading into Columbus.
I am surprised Karsen Barnhart is not seeing a challenge from Trente Jones. The early-season starter has been dressing and can play. Barnhart was Michigan's lowest grader lineman in both pass protection and run blocking against Illinois. Maybe Michigan doesn't want to create much more disruption with Keegan already out, but I am surprised there hasn't been some rotation there with Jones and Barnhart.
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