STOCK REPORT will be a season-long feature where we rank and rate Michigan football players within their position groups. This is more than a depth chart as we consider the player's impact and potential. After each game, we will reassess the rankings as players see their stock rise while others may see their stock fall.
It wasn't the best game for JJ McCarthy and it didn't have to be.
But again, let's calibrate to what a "bad game" for JJ McCarthy looks like.
70.8% completion. 145 yards, 6 yards per attempt. 8 first downs on 17 completions. McCarthy also added 62 yards in the run game.
Let's talk about some of the bad though. He did have the interception that turned into a pick 6, yes a tipped ball that bounces around but on a throw, he shouldn't have made. Unfortunately, the play was broken as soon as McCarthy stumbled into the bootleg. He also should have another interception on a throw you simply can't make, throwing the ball up in the air as he is being taken down for a sack. Luckily this one found its way to Blake Corum, but those are the exact type of plays we talked about McCarthy avoiding during the QB competition.
No deep shots in this one aside from an absolute rope to Cornelius Johnson on the sideline.
McCarthy had a couple of throws in this one where he just looked off. A missed screen to Edwards early in the game that looked like a would-be touchdown, where Michigan settled for an FG.
Unsurprisingly, Manny Diaz's game plan for Penn State was to blitz often, sending an extra rusher on 12 of McCarthy's 27 dropbacks. JJ went 8/11 for 74 yards when blitzed, but he did throw the pick 6 as well.
Michigan also ran more play-action in this one, something folks like me have been screaming for. Penn State did a good job of keeping the roof on, but McCarthy still went 7/9 for 62 yards with the Nittany Lions generating pressure on only 2 of those snaps.
We thought this might be the game where JJ was let loose. In some ways he was, as to my eye, this looked like the most freedom McCarthy has had in the run game. He wasn't in other ways, but this looked like the kind of game Harbaugh loves. This is his dream offense. A run game that can't be stopped, a quarterback who can make the easy short throws, and has enough run potential to get out of bad situations. Maybe he'll show off his arm talent against a weaker secondary in Michigan State, but as long as Michigan can run the ball at will and the defense is giving the underneath throws, they are going to take that all day.
How fun was that?
Let's start with this gem from Urban Meyer right before kickoff.
All week long, myself, Brandon, and Josh couldn't help but feel super confident Michigan was going to be able to run the ball and win this game comfortably. We are numbers guys, and that's simply what the numbers said.
While Penn State's 5th ranked run defense was discussed at length by pundits all week, no one was able to explain why their run defense was so good. In fact, Penn State's weakest spots in their defense are their linebackers and soft spots on the inside of the defensive line. That's usually not a formula for a run-stuffing defense.
Analytics laid this out as well, grading Penn State as average at best. PFF gave Penn State one green week in run defense, in their previous game against Northwestern. Their opponents either weren't strong in the run game or abandoned early in blowouts. After the 418 yards they gave up to Michigan, PFF now grades Penn State as the worst run defense in the Big Ten. While I hardly think that is true, the point is the #5 ranking for yards allowed was a mirage.
Michigan did whatever it wanted running the ball Saturday. It was a bread and butter gap scheme, and they targeted the soft spot in the middle of the Penn State defense as well as using their speed on the outside.
This is chart is almost unbelievable. You look at those B gap runs and think, "ok, that's pretty good." 5.1 yards per carry. 33% first down run rate, one breakaway run. Then you look at the A gap. 9.2 YPC with a 21% breakaway rate. Similar story with C and D, 7.8YPC 46% first down run rate and 29% breakaway rate. Nearly a third of the time Michigan ran the ball to the outside, it went for 10 yards or more.
And while the entire offensive line earned a game ball for its performance, 201 of Michigan's rushing yards came AFTER contact. Corum and Edwards combined for 12 missed tackles forced. That's 22% of all carries, they forced a defender to miss a tackle.
It was a career day for Donovan Edwards and another 25+ carry 150+ yard performance for Blake Corum, who is now a factor in the Heisman conversation. That'll do.
Only 6 Wolverines caught passes in this one and only 4 of them were wide receivers. Blame game plan, Penn State, or Michigan simply refusing to take risks with the run game moving like a freight train. As we covered with McCarthy, the numbers aren't electric here.
Penn State has two stud corners in Kalen King and Joey Porter, the latter being a likely first-round draft pick this spring. Michigan only targeted King 5 times for 5 receptions. McCarthy only looked Porter's way twice, getting receptions each time but for only 11 yards.
Ronnie Bell led the way again in targets with 6. He came down with 5 receptions for 39 yards. 3 of Bell's catches came with King covering him. He is clear-cut WR1 at this point as his 45 targets on the season are more than Roman Wilson's and Cornelius Johnson's 44 combined. 429 yards on the season for Bell as he is on the way to leading Michigan in receiving for the third season. Pretty remarkable as he is still 438 yards away from passing Jason Avant for 10th all-time in career receiving yards.
Roman Wilson returned to action in this one, but he was clearly on a snap count of sorts as he was on the field for only 30 of Michigan's 85 offensive plays. He had 4 catches for 29 yards as Penn State was focused on not letting Wilson beat them deep. He took advantage of an off-safety at one point with a quick hook for an easy first down. Wilson was also back to 100% of his snaps coming in the slot.
STOCK UP: I was on the fence about giving Cornelius Johnson a Stock Up last week and I correct my mistake by giving it to him this week. Only 3 catches for the senior but no drops. He also had Michigan's longest pass play of the day.
When Johnson is right, he is as good as it gets in the Big Ten. Those plays where McCarthy is on the run and Johnson is heading toward the sideline tend to go well for the Wolverines. He's a better deep threat than he gets credit for and of course, Jim Harbaugh loves him for his blocking.
Andrel Anthony gets a stock up in this one because once again it is clear that despite the results he is the guy Michigan wants to be the #4 receiver. Anthony's 37 snaps were the third most for a receiver.
We've seen a marked improvement in his run blocking as of late, which as we all know is the path to the field for any receiver in the Michigan offense. He only saw 1 target in this one and he was tackled immediately for a 2-yard loss after making the catch. So why stock up? Because it is just a matter of time.
After being the first-choice replacement for Roman Wilson last week against Indiana, AJ Henning saw only 1 snap in this one. I can't make sense of it because Henning is such a weapon with the ball in his hands. After all the talk this offseason of Henning being a "Deebo Samuel" like player for the Michigan offense he has essentially been relegated to return specialist. Henning is 8th on the team in receiving and has only 2 rushing attempts. I expected weekly end-around and snaps at tailback for Henning, but with Corum's dominance and ability to carry the ball 25+ times each week Michigan hasn't felt the need to explore other options in the run game.
I've been patting myself on the back for my predictions around the Michigan run game against Penn State, so it's only right I point out where I was wrong too. I thought this was going to be a big day for Luke Schoonmaker with Michigan going after Penn State's linebackers. No receptions for TE1 in this one. Schoonmaker is still third in receiving for the Wolverines and second in targets. No worries from me here. Some movement with the three behind him, however.
STOCK UP: I will not get off the Colston Loveland hype train. We saw more of the freshman against Penn State.
Honigford continues to lose snaps. It has been a pretty obvious tendency that when he is in the game Michigan is likely running the ball, including 22 of his 25 snaps against Penn State. Max Bredeson had a couple of bad penalties in this one and missed an assignment or two, but he still grades out as the better run blocker in the last few weeks.
Loveland's 24 snaps have him right there with Honigford and Bredeson. The separator for the freshman of course is his ability in the passing game. He saw another target in this one, a 19-yard catch that was taken off the board because the refs thought Bredeson had him covered (making him ineligible). It was a terrible call, as Bredeson was just as far off the line as many receivers will be on a given play.
Anyway, McCarthy with a play-action bootleg to his right where a wide-open Loveland was waiting is a play we will see again.
STOCK UP: All of them.
Offensive line imposed their will in this one. Some were better than others, and a few missed assignments, etc. The data is so far off in this one I am not going to waste anyone time's breaking it down. You don't get 418 rushing yards with some of the grades PFF was giving out.
Zak Zinter continues to be arguably the best offensive lineman, giving up zero pressures against Penn State. Olu Oluwatimi, Ryan Hayes, Karsen Barnhart, and Trevor Keegan allowed one pressure each with Keegan giving up the 1 sack on the day.
Giovanni El-Hadi saw the field in a 6OL set and got turnstiled for a TFL. It was an odd play call at that point, moving Keegan outside, wasn't a fan of it, not going to make anything of it.
Having to hear all week how Penn State's #5 run defense was going to slow down the Michigan run game, the Joe Moore Award-winning offensive line went out and bullied their way to the most rushing yards Michigan has had since 2016 against Rutgers. Stock Up, PFF be damned.
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