Published Nov 9, 2022
Stock Report: Michigan Offense Post-Week 9
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Trevor McCue  •  Maize&BlueReview
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STOCK REPORT will be a season-long feature where we rank and rate Michigan football players within their position groups. This is more than a depth chart as we consider the player's impact and potential. After each game, we will reassess the rankings as players see their stock rise while others may see their stock fall.

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Some good and some bad for JJ McCarthy in this one.

After two weeks of defenses dialing in on the passing game, Rutgers was in a man defense begging JJ to throw the ball.

Michigan opened the game with 3 of McCarthy's 4 throws being deep, including the first play, a 35-yard pass to Ronnie Bell. While Michigan was looking to let JJ rip, it also went away from some of the opening scripts we have seen that work to get JJ comfortable. He was uncomfortable in this one.

PASSING DEPTH VS RUTGERS
DISTANCECOMPLETIONYARDSTOUCHDOWNS

20+

3/6

75

1

10-19

1/6

10

0

0-9

8/9

58

0

Behind LOS

1/3

12

1

I mentioned last week, my biggest concern for McCarthy was rhythm. So while it would have been great to connect on the deep shot to Andrel Anthony for instance, what sticks out to me in this one is the 10-19 and behind LOS throws. McCarthy was dominating on the intermediate throws at the start of the season, but as defenses have started to adjust that seems to be the range he is getting hurt the most.

One big reason for this drop-off seems to be play-action. Michigan ran play action on only 4 JJ dropbacks and the only completion came on that first play pass to Ronnie Bell.

McCarthy also struggled under pressure, with Michigan's offensive line giving up pressures on 9 of JJ's 30 dropbacks. McCarthy was 1/6 for only 8 yards when facing pressure, getting sacked once.

It is worth noting Michigan receivers didn't do McCarthy a lot of favors either. We will break this down further later, but McCarthy had 0 turnover-worthy plays in this one. Arguably the biggest concern heading into the season was that McCarthy would be unwilling to give up on plays with him being so talented at extending plays. We have seen the sophomore develop each week in that area, whether it is throwing the ball away, not taking huge risks, or scrambling. He had 2 more scrambles for the first down against Rutgers, giving him 5 in the last two weeks.


It is finally here. The prediction many had before the season began, myself included. Michigan has the best RB duo in the country.

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Blake Corum didn't look himself against Rutgers. After a big run that was taken off the board, Corum was seen vomiting on the sideline. He says he believes it is a breathing issue he needs to work on, but regardless he just didn't have the same bite we've seen this year. So, if we operate with the expectation that this was arguably Corum's worst game in the Big Ten schedule, then who has a higher floor than Corum?

20 carries for 109 yards and 2 touchdowns for the Heisman candidate in this one including a ridiculous 92 yards after contact. 6 of Corum's runs went for first downs, and only 2 of his carries were longer than 10 yards. Even when the breakaways aren't there, Corum continues to thrive with his version of the "Haskins style". Always got the extra yard or two and avoided tackles for loss. Michigan's offensive efficiency comes from their ability to stay on schedule on first down runs and gaining yards on 2nd and longs, and that comes from Blake Corum.

STOCK UP: Donovan Edwards's usage is starting to look like what we thought it would at the start of the season.

Edwards has been limited due to injuries at times this year, and also game script hasn't seen Edwards used as the full weapon he is. Against Rutgers, we got a good look at what his role will likely be through the rest of the season.

As a runner, Edwards outperformed Corum for the second time this season, with the same 109 yards but on 5 fewer carries. Edwards doesn't break tackles like Corum but we are starting to see his vision and instinct develop each week. He is becoming a more patient runner but hitting holes with violence. There has been a perception Edwards isn't as physical of a back, and it just isn't the case.

As a receiver, we've seen flashes of Edwards' ability since his breakout against Maryland in 2021. This felt like the role we should expect. Edwards saw 3 targets which were 4th behind Ronnie Bell, Cornelius Johnson, and Luke Schoonmaker. He caught all 3 passes for 59 yards including a red zone touchdown where he made a great adjustment to make the catch.

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Give me Edwards getting 20ish touches a game from here on out. Edwards ran 13 snaps as a receiver against Rutgers, 2 of those had him lined up outside. Increase that number too while you are at it.

The story with CJ Stokes continues to be hard to decipher. He saw 4 snaps in this one, but so did Tavierre Dunlap and Isaiah Gash. Stokes was identified as RB3 at the start of the year, and he received those carries. Since 1 fumble against Maryland, he has only seen action in mop-up duty. The freshman is talented and as Michigan is coming to the home stretch, an RB3 getting carries earlier than the game would be beneficial. Will be interesting to see the usage of the role players moving forward.

Another not great game from the receivers group.

While a lot of attention has been paid to JJ, whether it is not putting any air on the ball or throwing the ball into coverage, there is a couple of things that I want to point out. First, that criticism is fair. The deep throw to Andrel Anthony could have been thrown with a little more air, but as some pointed out Andrel had both hands on the ball. Is it fair to say Anthony should have caught that ball? No, but was it uncatchable? Also, no.

As I said earlier, when it comes to the balls thrown into coverage, none of the throws were considered turnover-worthy plays. Even into double coverage, McCarthy is delivering catchable balls that receivers just aren't coming down with.

Let's take a look at Ronnie Bell. I'd argue no one in college football has more great catches that don't count than Bell. Whether they are called back for penalties, or he is out of bounds, it happens so often it drives you crazy. I say this only to say, Bell has shown the ability to make big catches.

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Again, am I saying Bell SHOULD catch that ball? No, but am I saying JJ delivers a ridiculous throw where Bell can get both hands on the ball and have a shot? Yes. These are called contested targets. What separates above-average and elite receivers is turning these targets into receptions, contested targets caught. Against Rutgers, Bell had 4 contested targets, and 0 of these were receptions. Cornelius Johnson had 1 and wasn't able to secure the catch.

MICHIGAN CONTESTED TARGETS
WRTotal TargetsCTTCTCDropsCTC %

Ronnie Bell

59

13

3

2

23%

Cornelius Johnson

28

5

2

3

40%

Roman Wilson

24

3

2

1

66%

Andrel Anthony

12

4

2

0

50%

Luke Schoonmaker

38

7

2

2

29%

I've added Schoonmaker here because he is 2nd on the team in targets and it makes sense for the discussion. Bell, unsurprisingly has the most contested targets with his significant target advantage, but he has only caught 3 of those 13 contested targets for 23%. Schoonmaker is at 29% of 7 targets, Cornelius has only 2 catches on 5 targets, 40%, while Roman Wilson and Anthony lead the way among top receivers but with only 3 and 4 targets respectively. Bell simply isn't elite enough to have 5 fewer targets than Johnson, Wilson, and Anthony combined.

Am I picking on our guys? Unreal expectations? For comparison, let's take a look at the rival Buckeyes.

OHIO STATE CONTESTED TARGETS
WRTotal TargetsCTTCTCDropsCTC %

Marvin Harrison Jr.

76

20

13

0

65%

Emeka Egbuka

70

11

6

4

54.5%

Cade Stover

35

5

3

2

60%

Julian Fleming

32

8

4

1

50%

And here is why Marvin Harrison Jr. is being discussed as the best receiver in the country and why CJ Stroud can at least partially thank his receivers for making him a Heisman candidate.

Buckeye's top 4 targets all post a 50% or better-contested target catch rate, on significantly more targets as well. We were comparing these two groups before the season, arguing whether the depth of Michigan's wide receiver room was arguably better than Ohio State's, so I think it is fair to compare now with a big chunk of data.

So, what does this mean? Is there a solution here? Anthony and Wilson haven't had the opportunity to say whether their trends would continue but my first answer let's find out. I've talked about this the last few weeks, as did Harbaugh, they want to get Anthony more involved.

Snap Comparison
PlayerTotal SnapsPass Snaps

Ronnie Bell

58

29

Cornelius Johnson

47

27

Andrel Anthony

42

18

AJ Henning

18

9

Amorion Walker

13

6

Darrius Clemons

8

1

Tyler Morris

7

2

This is without Roman Wilson, who leads the team in CTC% but on only 3 targets. So, when he is back healthy, let's assume Michigan tries to get him more involved, does Anthony lose snap share significantly again? With Bell playing the slot in Wilson's absence, Anthony gets more outside snaps. The only way that continues is if he eats into Johnson's snaps.

It is no secret, you need to be a great blocking WR before you see the field for Michigan, and that's why Bell and Johnson play so much, and why Darrius Clemons has only 8 snaps and only 1 of them was in a passing situation.

Michigan is trying to figure this out, with the "freak show" WR group getting their highest snap share of the season. Amorion Walker was targeted on a deep throw and Tyler Morris made a clutch third-down grab, a contested target-turned-reception.

Bell and Johnson are really good receivers, and their value for this team goes beyond these charts, but they aren't the elite Big Ten receivers we see at Ohio State. We heard all season how this group could go 10 deep, yet 9 games into the season Bell and Johnson are dominating targets. I always complained in previous seasons I felt the group was over-rotated, I wanted to see more dedication from the guys. Well, now I'm arguing there isn't enough separation and there is a lot of potential below, so let's see more targets for Wilson and Anthony, and more chances for the "freak show" freshmen.

Snap share among the tight ends continues to become clearer with Luke Schoonmaker the obvious TE1 and Colston Loveland now cemented at TE2.

TE Snaps
Other snaps not included were pass protection
TESnapsPassRun Block

Luke Schoonmaker

52

22

30

Colston Loveland

34

12

21

Joel Honigford

16

0

15

Max Bredeson

16

1

14

STOCK UP: Loveland now doubles the snap share of Honigford and Bredeson. Each sees the field almost exclusively in 12 and 13 personnel groupings. They are simply additional blockers for the run scheme, with Honigford serving like a 6th OL and Bredeson playing more of an H-Back/FB role.

Loveland's role has increased in the absence of Erick All because of his ability as a receiver. Like playing wideout, you have to block and Loveland is now getting more run-block snaps than pass. He needs to continue to improve there, as he grades out below Bredeson and is equal to Honigford.

Loveland only came down with a short 6-yard reception on his lone target but you can see how Michigan plans to use him the rest of the way. Of his 12 snaps in the passing game, 6 of them came from the slot. On the shot to the end zone for Schoonmaker, he was open but missed by McCarthy. I keep beating the horse, he's a super talent, but a freshman. Hopefully, the switch goes off before Columbus because he would be a valuable weapon.

Schoonmaker was contained against Rutgers, with only 4 targets and 2 receptions. We mentioned Schoon in the catch-in-traffic section of this report and it will be interesting to see how the trend moves as he becomes more of a red-zone target for the offense.

The offensive line has been playing well as a unit, but unfortunately, another starter was missed this week against Rutgers. Fortunately, his replacement played well.

Zak Zinter and Olu Oluwatimi continue to be the two best linemen but this was a particularly good game for Olu who graded out as Michigan's best run-blocking OL and allowed 0 pressures in the passing game. Let's lay out the chart and we'll just go down the list.

Pass Protecton
Giovanni El-Hadi allowed 1 pressure in 7 snaps. Andrew Gentry, Reece Atteberry, Raheem Anderson played 9 snaps and allowed 0 pressures.
OLPressures AllowedEfficiency

Olu Oluwatimi

0

100.0

Jeffrey Persi

1

98.4

Zak Zinter

1

98.3

Trevor Keegan

1

96.0

Karsen Barnhart

3

92.0

STOCK UP: Not a bad first start Persi.

Jeffrey Persi filled in for Hayes at LT, getting his first career start. Persi has been earning praise since spring camp from teammates and coaches alike. Earlier this season when Hayes had to leave the game, Michigan elected to move Trevor Keegan to LT and play Giovanni El-Hadi at LG. Persi was thought to be the backup LT but has played behind Barnhart and El-Hadi. With Jones out at RT and Barnhart starting there, Persi got the start. No one played more snaps against Rutgers than Persi and he allowed only one pressure.

He showed great footwork and athleticism, unsurprising given the praise we have heard. He played a little high at times, but that is to be expected from a first start at LT. Persi is likely a starter next season for the Wolverines so it was great to see him not only get the start but perform so well.

Keegan was playing well before another lower leg injury had him on the sidelines. I've said this a few times, but Keegan has all the potential it's just been a difficult season. Hopefully, he can stay healthy and stay with starters because as a group they have been playing at a ridiculously elite level.

I am going to keep an eye on Barnhart. He has played well at times but has been inconsistent. He allowed 3 pressures against Rutgers. JJ loves moving to his right and he needs better play from that spot. Will be interesting to see what happens if Trente Jones is finally cleared to go this week.

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