The No. 13 ranked Michigan Wolverines (8-2, 5-2 Big Ten) are coming off of a 44-10 beatdown of in-state rival Michigan State. They now move on and head to Bloomington to take on a more than solid team in the Indiana Hoosiers (7-3, 4-3 Big Ten). The Wolverines have won three straight games with all three coming by 30 or more points.
Indiana is coming off of a hard fought loss at Penn State last week, 34-27. This is, by far, head coach Tom Allen's most solid team in Bloomington.
We take a look at what the analytics say about the Wolverines and the Hoosiers.
Comparison: ESPN's Football Power Index
The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)
Michigan: 10th nationally with a 21.0 FPI score
Indiana: 28th nationally with a 8.3 FPI score
U-M jumps into the top-10 in FPI this week, while Indiana is just outside the top-25. In ESPN Team Efficiency scores, Indiana's offense shows high efficiency, as does U-M's defense.
Michigan
Overall: 14th in team efficiency with a score of 78.3
Offense: 34th in offensive efficiency with a score of 64.6
Defense: 9th in defensive efficiency with a score of 80.8
Indiana
Overall: 25th in team efficiency with a score of 70.0.
Offense: 16th in offensive efficiency with a score of 74.0
Defense: 50th in defensive efficiency with a score of 57.5
Analysis: The Wolverines' defense against the Indiana offense will be the two team's strengths going at each other. We'll break down that matchup below. The U-M offense was 39th last week, and continues to be more efficient with each week. We'll see if that continues against a solid, but not great Hoosiers defense.
Comparison: Football Outsiders' SP+ Ratings
The SP+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from both play-by-play and drive data from all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). The components for SP+ reflect the components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives.
Michigan: 10th ranked with a SP+ rating of 22.4
Indiana: 35th ranked with a SP+ rating of 9.8
Football Outsiders' FEI Ratings
The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) is a college football rating system based on opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, representing the per possession scoring advantage a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent.
Michigan
Overall: 14th ranked with a FEI score of .76
Offense: 35th ranked with an OFEI score of .53
Defense: 6th ranked with a DFEI score of .96
Indiana
Overall: 35th ranked with a FEI score of .33
Offense: 24th ranked with an OFEI score of .70
Defense: 71st ranked with a DFEI score of -.17
Analysis: The Indiana defense doesn't rank highly in DFEI, but in total defense, they rank No. 18 in the country, giving up just 316.3 total yards per game. Indiana's offense has taken a step forward under first year coordinator Kalen DeBoer and will likely find a couple ways to exploit a strong U-M defense. Last year, much was made of the success the Hoosiers had on crossing routes over the middle and it will be interesting to see if that will continue in this year's game.
Michigan Offense vs. Indiana Defense
The Indiana defense ranks 43rd in overall defense with an 85.1 grade, according to PFF. U-M's offense ranks 42nd in overall offense with a PFF grade of 78.7.
A note on PFF grades — a single-game grade of about 64 is considered average. National rank includes all FBS teams.
