It's fitting that Michigan's loss, their first Big Ten road loss of the season and second conference loss overall, took place at Jersey Mike's Arena. The loss, like Jersey Mike's menu, was mostly the same things we've seen over and over again arranged in a different order with maybe one novel thing thrown in for good measure.
Inexplicable misses by Michigan and inexplicable early makes by Rutgers sealed Michigan's fate mere minutes into the game
Rutgers opened up an 11-point by the 12:22 mark in the first half, and that was enough cushion for them to endure Michigan's runs the rest of the game and never relinquish the lead. According to ESPN, Rutgers' win probability from that point on never dipped lower than 73%.
Michigan missed three jumpers and two layups by the aforementioned 12:22 mark. Conversely, they had allowed five three-point shots to fall by that point, with some contested and others extraordinarily easy looks off poor defensive rotations. Rutgers averages 32.2% on three-point shots, but Michigan allowed the Scarlet Knights to shoot five-of-six (83%) in less than eight minutes.
Michigan's three-point defense sunk the team once again
While we're on the topic of three-point defense, it's worth zooming out a bit and looking at the entire game. Rutgers shot 11-for-23 on the evening (47.8%), a brisk clip that saw them shoot 15.6% better than their season average.
At this point I'm not sure what the answer is. Michigan has been plagued by poor defensive rotations all year, but not all of these threes came off mistakes. A number of them did, that's for certain, but Rutgers found a wellspring of confidence early in the game off their torrid start and continued to take threes. By the second half some of these were essentially heat-check threes and even those were falling. They fell with or without hands in faces, and at this point the only solution seems to be cleaning up rotations and not allowing teams to hit early in the game, thus preventing the early-game confidence boost that has seemed to carry opponents of late.
Michigan had an unusually bad shooting night near the basket, while their icy three-point shooting returned
Michigan missed seven layups or dunks tonight by my count based on the available play-by-play data while making seven; the math isn't hard here, and making 50% of shots at the basket isn't something this team can afford.
Not when three-point shooting has been such a rollercoaster this season. Michigan went ice cold again tonight, shooting 20% (3-15) after the roller coaster had apparently crested the hill against Southern Utah (7-18, 38.9%) and UCF (11-27, 40.7%). The last time Michigan shot so poorly from deep was their first Big Ten loss of the season in early December against Minnesota (3-18, 16.7%).
What's the solution here? Is it to just keep shooting? Caleb Houstan tried, but he finished 1-of-8. Even Hunter Dickinson took what was given to him, but he missed both of his attempts. Maybe the issue is that Michigan just doesn't have the three-point shooters of years past; Houstan is the only Wolverine who even attempted more than two three-pointers.
In terms of point distribution, Michigan only gets 27.6% of its points off three-point shots. According to KenPom that ranks 273rd in the country, while they are in the top 50 (48th overall) in percentage of points off two-pointers (56.4%). Finding a way to balance the offense could better mask some of the defensive breakdowns.
---
Not a subscriber to The Maize and Blue Review? Sign up today!
Discuss this article on our premium message boards
Follow our staff on Twitter @MaizeBlueReview, @JoshHenschke, @BrandonJustice_, @DanielDash_, @DennisFithian, @StephenToski, @TannerWutang, @Baird_CJ, @ZachLibby, @JimScarcelli
Subscribe to our podcast on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts and Spotify
Subscribe to The Maize and Blue Review on YouTube!
Like The Maize and Blue Review on Facebook!
