College basketball has plenty of stars this year with many NBA draft experts projecting the top 5 to 10 picks being from college basketball. I decided to analyze some of the top prospects and make a list of my own. Based on the following rankings, I have listed my top three NBA draft prospects that are in college basketball right now.
1. Paolo Banchero F (Duke) Age: 19, 6’10” 250 lbs
Paolo Banchero is the most NBA-ready player in college basketball. His playstyle at the power forward position fits the modern NBA spacing and cutting. I believe what sets him apart from his peers on this list and in the rest of college basketball, is his physicality as a post-up presence. Banchero uses his large frame and powerful moves to score in the paint or create separation for a jump shot. Averaging 18 points per game and 7 rebounds on 50% shooting and 35% from three this season, Banchero has established himself as one of the best players in the country at a young age. Duke puts Paolo in various positions throughout the game to showcase this versatility shown by his statistics.
Strength: Isolation Situations
Coach K utilizes Paolo’s size and strength by placing him in isolation positions on the elbow.
While this may look like a simple set drawn up for Paolo to score, there are a lot of factors that help Paolo make a jump shot in this situation. First, the spacing on his side of the floor makes it hard for Kentucky to double team Banchero. Second, Coach K knows that if a double team comes, the spacing that I have outlined will allow Banchero to pass and create for others. Banchero has destroyed teams this season from the elbow. He hits jump shots or drives through defenders all while maintaining high efficiency.
Strength: Off Ball Cuts on Offense
In addition, Duke plays Paolo off the ball as a way to create spacing and punish teams with off-ball cuts.
In this play, Paolo sees his defender’s positioning on the floor, and he relocates to the deep corner so that Mark Williams, who has the ball, can see him. This skill is taught by some universities; however, it is a lot harder to achieve in the flow of the game. Banchero recognizes his defender's position and makes himself available for an easy basket at the rim when he cuts.
Coach K recognizes Paolo’s offensive intuition and plugs him into various spots on the floor to keep opponents guessing.
Weakness: Defensive Awareness
As an NBA player, Banchero will need to be defensively engaged due to the various floor spacers that he will have to play against in his time. Some people will credit this to his youth, but there are some signs of potential struggles on the defensive end at the next level. Assuming teams play Banchero at the power forward position, he will have to guard the strong shooting bigs that space the floor. He often loses his matchup and gets beaten on back door cuts to the rim. He doesn’t move his feet particularly well on defense and has been beaten a lot off the dribble by guys like EJ Liddell and Jordan Miller. When NBA teams play small, this could expose Banchero a bit.
2. Jabari Smith F (Auburn) Age 18, 6’10” 220 lbs
Jabari Smith has the physical tools to become a lethal and efficient scorer at the next level. At such a young age, Smith showcases his skill set at Auburn primarily through his jump shot. Smith has had a fantastic freshman season averaging 15.8 points, 6 rebounds, and 2
assists per game. Shooting 45% from the field and an astounding 43.7% from three-point range, Smith has beaten teams with his superior height and his strong shot selection.
Strength: Transition Offense
Jabari Smith utilizes his length and shooting ability to his advantage in transition. Auburn has a lot of aggressive and quick guards this year that push the tempo; however, Smith often finds himself pushing the ball after he gets a rebound. At his size of 6’10” 220 pounds, Smith runs the floor incredibly well and has shown his ability to shoot off the dribble in transition.
In this play against Louisiana Monroe, Smith grabbed the rebound and quickly pushed the ball in transition. By dribbling to the middle of the floor, Smith was able to break slight pressure from the defense and give himself a better view of the floor. This shows a high level of basketball IQ and makes Smith even more lethal.
Later in this possession, Smith pulls up off the dribble and hits the three in transition. His release point on his jump shot and his overall form makes each shot he takes look incredibly smooth. This transition play showcases the important aspects of Smith’s game and will help him in the faster-paced NBA games.
Strength: Off Ball Scoring
Most importantly, I think Jabari Smith’s ability to score without dribbling a lot will be important at the next level. Auburn’s aggressive guard play creates a lot of opportunities for Smith to get open shots.
Smith stands in the corner and receives a quick pass from the top of the key. All of the focus is on the guard at the top, but Smith stays ready and quickly raises into his jump shot. While some may view this as a small thing, I think this will make Smith the easiest person to play with in the NBA. Looking at potential teams that could draft Smith like Orlando, Detroit, and Houston, each of those teams has ball-dominant guards that need the basketball in their hands to be effective. Smith will fit right alongside those guards with his efficiency and unselfishness.
Weakness: Physicality
Jabari Smith’s slender frame allows him to be quicker than the average 6’10” player. This frame, while not crazy skinny, makes it harder for him to establish himself in spots for isolation scoring, and it also allows defenders to push him away from desired spots on the floor. In some of my other pieces, I have discussed how defenders push strong scorers away from the basket to make it harder to score. In college, Smith has been pushed around by defenders but still scores due to his superior height and his strong jab step. In the NBA, he will be guarded by strong and long defenders every night. If the defense gets physical with Smith, it could negatively affect his efficiency and scoring output.
3. Jaden Ivey G (Purdue) Age 19, 6’4” 195 lbs
Jaden Ivey has benefitted from his return to college basketball averaging 16.4 points, 3.1 assists, and 5.2 rebounds per game. NBA scouts have drooled over his potential because of his elite quickness and athleticism on the offensive end. However, after his freshman year, there were questions surrounding his ability to shoot after he posted a bad 25% from three-point range. He made a jump this season with his statistical improvement from three-point range, now shooting an impressive 43% from three-point range. Ivey improved his decision-making in the ball screen as well. These factors catapulted him to number three on my available player's list, which may come as a surprise to some since I listed him ahead of Chet Holmgren of Gonzaga.
Strength: Athleticism and Quickness
Ivey’s athletic ability gives him the edge on perimeter defenders in college basketball. He punishes various defensive schemes by getting to positions he wants on the floor by accelerating in certain offensive sets. He utilizes his leaping ability to score over strong shot blockers in the Big 10 and draws a lot of fouls by challenging players at the rim.
In this play against North Carolina, Purdue has Ivey run the baseline in an attempt to get him a shot. The UNC defender chases Jaden Ivey through the first screen, but Ivey accelerates to create a lot of separation and eventually gets an open shot.
Notice how much room Ivey created from just his speed alone. The first screen on the baseline didn’t connect with the defender, but Ivey accelerated to create the separation. Although this doesn’t seem like a ton of room, the difference between the first image and the second shows his ability to put pressure on defensive schemes with his athletic ability alone. Ivey turns the corner and hits an open three-point shot to end this play.
Strength: Playmaking
Because of my former personal playstyle, I am a sucker for fundamentals. When I see someone as talented as Jaden Ivey utilize the simple pivot in games so much, I see an attention to detail to his game that will allow him to have more potential in the NBA. He utilizes angles and pivot footwork to create plays for his teammates at a high level.
In this image here, Ivey drives into four defenders while on a fast break. Many young guards jump in the air to make passes or even try to shoot in the air. If a player jumps in the air, it often restricts the different things they can do. Unlike those players, Ivey drives the lane, does a jump stop and lands on two feet.
I have circled Ivey’s feet here to show that he uses his pivot that he established to make a great pass to a wide-open teammate across the court. When driving to the basket, Ivey draws so much attention. In this situation, he saw his teammate was open because he recognized the defensive attention. Ivey utilizes his change of pace to his advantage in these situations.
Weakness: Left Hand Usage
After playing against Ivey last year and watching him this year, it has become clear it is almost impossible to keep him grounded. Ivey goes strong to his right hand consistently and scores easily at the rim with his right hand. However, teams that have made him struggle such as Wisconsin and Penn State have forced him to take the majority of his shots going to the rim and going to his left hand. It’s much easier said than done, but there have been some extreme examples of NBA teams guarding players to force them one direction the entire game. Furthermore, if he matches up against someone just as quick as him, he will need to develop a stronger isolation usage.
