With the announcement that the College Football Playoff is expanding to 12 teams in 2026, everyone began playing what if with history. What if instead of the BCS or the current 4 team CFP, college football had gone right to a 12 team playoff in 1998?

The Athletic used the final rankings of the BCS and the CFP to figure out who would have made the playoff each season.

Michigan would have made 7 playoffs under the 12 team format, including three seasons under Jim Harbaugh. Let’s take a look at those seasons and see if we can figure out how far Michigan could have gone.

In the second year of the playoff Michigan makes its first appearance. Their first game would be a rematch of one of the best games in the history of the Michigan State rivalry, but this time in Ann Arbor. Assuming the Wolverines avenged the loss, a bowl game matchup with the eventual National Champion Florida State Seminoles would have awaited.

In John Navarre’s second season as starting quarterback, Michigan is back in the playoff. Michigan and Washington State would have met in a rematch of the 1998 Rose Bowl. The teams shared two opponents in 2002. Both lost to Ohio State, while Michigan beat Washington with last second field and the Courgars lost a thriller to their rivals. A win against WSU would have meant a matchup against SEC Champion Georgia.

Navarre and Michigan go back to back and 3 out of 5 trips to the playoff. The Wolverines would have had a bye before facing the winner of Tennessee and Miami. That year Michigan lost convincingly to USC in the Rose Bowl but this would have been their best shot at a semifinal up until this point.

After missing the playoffs for two seasons, Michigan returns with their highest seed yet. The Wolverines would have faced Louisville or Notre Dame to earn a semifinal berth. Michigan would have likely faced Urban Meyer’s Florida that destroyed Ohio State. After ‘The Game of the Century’ the Wolverines lost another Rose Bowl to USC. Michigan probably would have missed out on the finals.

It took a decade before Michigan would return to the playoff. In Harbaugh’s second season the Wolverines would have played their real life Orange Bowl opponent, Florida State. This time the game would have been in snowy Ann Arbor instead of sunny Miami. A victory against the Seminoles would have meant a bowl game rematch against Ohio State. Imagine a neutral site rematch of the 2016 OT classic.

In 2018, Michigan’s revenge tour would have seen a second act. The Wolverines were looking at a CFP berth in real life before suffering a devastating blowout loss to the Buckeyes. In this world Michigan would get another shot with a home game against Florida. Since the Wolverines lost to the Gators 41-15 in the Peach Bowl we have to assume Michigan’s season wouldn’t have gone much different.

Just last season Michigan made the playoff for the first time. In this world, it would have been the Wolverines 7th trip. With their highest ranking yet at #2, Michigan would have a bye before facing Baylor or Michigan State. The Wolverines were playing their best football and would have been favored to reach the semifinal. What changes this year is Cincinnati, not Georgia would have been the three seed as the Bulldogs were not conference champions. Meaning Michigan would have faced Cincinnati or Ohio State in the semifinal while Georgia likely played Alabama. This makes 2021 Michigan’s best chance at playing in the National Championship.

The biggest unknown is what impact the 12 team playoff would have had on the landscape of college football. Would there not have been massive conference realignment and now expansion? What level of parity could have existed? Many theorize the 4 team playoff has allowed the rich to get richer, and that it is the reason for the consolidation of talent at the likes of Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio State.

While many hope the 12 team playoff will lead to more parity, some argue it is a gift to the already dominant top tier. These teams essentially get a mulligan each year as a loss would not knock them from the playoff. For example, Michigan would have 7 playoff appearances and Ohio State would have 18. The bye week also is a massive advantage, so there is high likelihood more games would still result with the same 4 teams.

I’m optimistic the new 12 team playoff will be good for college football. It will result in more meaningful games for more teams late in the season. While it may take some importance out of regular season that almost works like an elimination tournament for most teams, a second chance isn’t a bad thing. Teams lose games for lots of reasons, sometimes out of their control that have a massive swing on the result.

We have seen playoff expansion benefit nearly every professional league and it’s hard to imagine it will be bad for college football when brands like Michigan are making regular appearances. This will bring energy back to bowl games, allow campuses to host home playoff games, and hopefully create a more level playing field.

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