What's next for Michigan football’s wide receiver room?

Ronnie Bell, Michigan football's leading receiver in three of the last four seasons, is headed to the NFL. Andrel Anthony, who was never able to build on his breakout big game against the Spartans in 2021 is now playing for Oklahoma.

On the other side, Cornelius Johnson has elected to return to Ann Arbor for another season. Johnson was Michigan's leading receiver in the 2021 season when Ronnie Bell was out for injury, and he led Michigan in touchdowns in 2022.

There will be no quarterback competition in the 2023 offseason and JJ McCarthy will have his first full offseason as starter. He will once again have a deep and talented room of wide receivers to work with, but with his favorite target Ronnie Bell of to the league, what's next for the wide receivers in 2023?

Let's start with the significant loss of Ronnie Bell. I have 2022 stats for two receivers I want to compare.

Pretty comparable. Player A has 14 more targets and 6 more receptions, A slight lead in yards but Player B has more than double the touchdowns.

Player A is indeed Ronnie Bell's 2022 season. Player B is actually two receivers, Cornelious Johnson and Roman Wilson's 2022 seasons combined. Again, Bell was the clear favorite target of JJ McCarthy with that massive target share. Those targets will get split, but will there be more balance, or will we once again see a clear WR1?

What Ronnie Bell does well is get open, especially adjusting for McCarthy when he is out of the pocket. If there is going to be a receiver with a significant target advantage, they are going to have to find the holes in the defense when JJ is on the run.

Where Ronnie Bell struggled was when he wasn't open. Of his 97 targets, 18 were contested targets, meaning a defender is near the receiver and able to make a play on the ball. Bell caught only 3 of those for a 16.7% contested catch rate, the lowest rate in the Big Ten among eligible receivers. 3 of JJ McCarthy's interceptions came when Bell was targeted.

The answer for who replaces Ronnie is difficult. Johnson led the team in receiving with Bell out in 2021, but he wasn't converting a large share of targets. His contested catch rate was 35.3% in 2021 and 42.9% in 2022, so his bigger frame does seem to get him an advantage there.

Roman Wilson seems like the obvious choice. More similar size and style, and Wilson has the ability to line up outside or in the slot. Wilson simply hasn't had the targets for us to make the data-based argument he can be a Bell like WR1. He did catch 67.6% of his targets last season, but he struggled at times to consistently create separation. I think the answer could be a combination of Johnson and Wilson, but I also think the answer may lie in the next question.

Ronnie Bell returned to the Z receiver role, primarily outside in 2022, but still took around 40% of his snaps from the slot. Roman Wilson who had been the Z receiver with Bell out in 2021, played almost exclusively in the slot. 90% of his snaps were in the slot in 2022 and the majority of his outside reps came later in the season.

Now we are back to the first question, who replaces Ronnie Bell? As we discussed above statistically it could be a group effort much in the way Michigan replaced Aidan Hutchinson last season with multiple players contributing. Schematically it has a lot to do with what Michigan does with the slot receiver position.

Roman Wilson moving to Z makes a lot of sense. Michigan rotates players a lot, and receivers line up in multiple spots on the field but there tends to be a clear WR1 and WR2 with Michigan not running a lot of 11 personnel compared to other sets. So with Wilson back outside, that makes he and Johnson the top 2.

Michigan has options for a primary slot receiver if Wilson indeed moves to the Z. The first name that jumps out is AJ Henning. Hard to believe Henning is entering his senior season in Ann Arbor already. Henning was a 4-star Rivals Top 100 recruit in the 2020 class. Henning's usage at Michigan has been somewhat bizarre. In a limited role as a sophomore, Henning caught 10 passes for 79 yards. He also had 9 rushes for 162 yards, 18 yards per carry, and 2 touchdowns. Henning was also electric as a return man, including a kick return touchdown.

Throughout the 2022 offseason we discussed a likely expanded role for Henning, given his skillset and home run ability. In fact, Henning and coaches discussed the topic openly, referencing his role as similar to Deebo Samuel for the San Francisco 49ers. Henning had less receptions in 2022 (9) and carried the ball only 3 times. Even with CJ Stokes dealing with freshman struggles, Michigan didn't give Henning more carries, instead Blake Corum carried the ball 25+ times throughout the Big Ten schedule.

On paper, it is fair to assume this is the year Henning becomes a larger part of the offensive gameplan. He was still a solid returner for Michigan in 2022, earning All-B1G honors, but we didn't get to see the Deebo Samuel role we were anticipating.

The potential game changer here is Tyler Morris. Morris was part of Michigan's "freak show" wide receiver class in 2022. Late in the 2022 season he saw 5 targets, converting 3 for receptions. 2 of the catches went for first down, including a difficult contested target against Rutgers. Morris lined up in the slot on 89.5% of his snaps, second only to Roman Wilson. Morris is a track star and can impact the game from the slot in many of the same ways Wilson and Henning have with end arounds and screens.

Morris will push for the starting slot role as soon as camp begins. He has the tools if he can put it all together early in his sophomore offseason. In terms of looking for a new favorite target for JJ McCarthy, maybe you don't have to look further than McCarthy's friend since middle school Tyler Morris. The two won a state championship together in Illinois playing for Nazerth Academy.

The final piece to consider at the slot is the non-receivers. Donovan Edwards is arguably Michigan's best receiver and while injuries limited his exposure in the passing game, with Blake Corum returning Edwards may make his biggest impact catching the ball. I would expect Edwards to see more slot snaps this season. Same can be said for tight end Colston Loveland. Loveland is a former receiver who grew into a tight end. 31.8% of his snaps came from the slot in 2022. With his ability to stretch the field and win in the seam, he will be a weapon inside as well.

Everything so far has been based on the assumption that Cornelius Johnson will be the X receiver again, but what if he's not?

Sometimes X receiver can be interchangeable to simply mean your WR1. Some people called Bell the X receiver last season for that reason. For this conversation I consider the X your split end. Big body receiver who typically lines up opposite the tight end. Ideally, a do it all receiver. The size and route running to win competitive short and medium routes, but the speed to get separation deep and the hands to win 50/50 jump balls. This was Cornelius in 2022 and the assumption currently for 2023.

Enter Darrius Clemons. Clemons was also part of the "freak show" WR class with Tyler Morris. We heard about Clemons all offseason in 2022. Everyone knew Clemons was physically gifted, way ahead of most freshman, but players and coaches alike raved about his work ethic and attention to detail. He played more snaps than Morris in 2022, but only saw two targets, finishing with 1 reception for 7 yards.

Clemons is 6'3" 214lbs and has posted sub 4.4 40 yard dash times. He is incredibly smooth for a bigger receiver and adjusts well on elevated passes. He has flashed plus hand skills and looks like the kind of receiver that can win contested targets. I'd argue no Michigan receiver currently has a higher ceiling than Clemons. You have to block in the run game to play receiver for the Wolverines, and assuming Clemons can prove he can do that consistently he will be part of Michigan's "top 5" receivers.

If fall camp ends and Michigan believes he is one the top 3, then starting Clemons at the X and moving Johnson to the Y could make a lot of sense. Michigan would then have two bigger receivers on the outside, each with the ability to win across the middle or on deep throws. With Roman Wilson in the slot, Michigan would have big play threats at each wide receiver spot.

The Wolverines have decent depth developing on the outside as well. Amorion Walker is the final piece of the "freak show" wide receiver group. Another big receiver than can line up all over the field. Walker may end up on the defensive side of the ball, depending on how Michigan evaluates their depth at corner and receiver. Cristian Dixon is entering his junior season, and while he hasn't made much impact on the field yet, Dixon is a focused hard-working player who is committed to preparing for his moment to come in Ann Arbor. Peyton O'Leary was the star of last season's Michigan fall camp. A walk-on that Michigan believes can contribute.

Michigan followed up its trio of freak show receivers in 2022 with another trio of freak show receivers in 2023.

Semaj Morgan is a longtime Michigan commit from West Bloomfield. Reminds me a lot of AJ Henning as an electric player who can take any play to the house. He's also a far better pass catcher than he gets credit for, playing bigger than his size. Morgan could make an impact early in the return game or on designated plays similar to Henning.

Frederick Moore was a summertime commit out of St. Louis, Missouri. Moore reminds me a lot of Roman Wilson. Moore competed in track as well, and while he isn't a burner, he has football speed and the ability to get separation. Moore's game is with his feet, a crafty route runner and a player who can dance around defenders to gain extra yards. He's a future Z receiver who can play outside or in the slot.

The final piece to this group was the Signing Day addition of Karmello English. English chose Michigan over his hometown Auburn Tigers. English is an intriguing prospect who much like Moore plays bigger than his size suggests. With a filled-out frame, English could be a reliable possession receiver. Kind of an old school slot player who dominates in the short and intermediate ranges and wins contested catches at a high rate. His physicality will get him special teams reps early.

I think all three of the freshmen have potential make an early impact on special teams. At receiver, I'm not sure if any will break into the rotation. A lot was made of how Michigan could run 10 deep at the position this last season, but a clear top 3 and top 5 formed. I would expect something similar in 2023.

The first and obvious thing worth stating is none of the scenarios we've discussed will be Michigan's "permanent" set. The Wolverines rotate and move receivers. As we discussed with Edwards and Loveland, it won't be only wide receivers lining up outside or in the slot either. Many of the different lineup formations we discussed will likely occur.

Maybe Johnson, Wilson, Henning will be the go-to group. Maybe Clemons, Johnson, Wilson will. But both formations will happen, and in the early part of the season I bet a lot of different formations will happen as Michigan tries to find its best grouping. There is going to be a lot of competition throughout the offseason as multiple receivers will be fighting for reps. Michigan has a talented group, but they are also versatile. Not many of the receivers can be pigeonholed to one type of role. With so many players able to line up in different spots and impact the game at short and deep levels, Michigan really can simply try to find their top 3 and top 5 receivers and chart out positions after the fact.

So who replaces Ronnie Bell may a be a group effort or established veterans like Johnson or Wilson could become clear cut WR1. Maybe one of the new guys can become a favorite of McCarthy, like Darrius Clemons or Tyler Morris. AJ Henning could finally have the breakout season so many fans have anticipated for the last couple of seasons. Players at other positions like Donovan Edwards and Colston Loveland have the ability to be defacto WR1 with enough target share. Three more freshmen join the group, and each has a skillset that could benefit Michigan from day 1.

Michigan has options. While it is obvious to expect upperclassmen like Johnson and Wilson to lead the way, it would not be a surprise to see a new player emerge with so many talented receivers with high ceilings of potential. For today, a top 5 of Johnson, Wilson, Henning, Clemons, and Morris seems to be the group heading into spring camp. Will Michigan find a top 3 from that group and can one of the many other receivers crack into the group? That will be one of the biggest questions we watch this offseason.

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