What the SP+ projections tell us about the Big Ten

Worry not; preseason rankings, projections, and predictions halt when Week Zero of the college football season kicks off on Saturday.

However, like most teams, Michigan football won't kick off until Sept. 3.

So until then, the preseason chatter goes on.

ESPN's Bill Connelly released his annual SP+ Projections in May, and late last week, he released an updated version, which serves as the final preseason projections before the regular season.

Here's everything you need to know about the SP+ and its criteria.

As mentioned previously, these are based on three primary factors: returning production (final rankings for which you can find at the bottom of this piece), recent recruiting and recent history. How good have you been recently? Who do you have coming back? How good are the players replacing those you don't have coming back? That's loosely what we ask when we're setting expectations for a team subjectively; it's also what these projections attempt to do objectively.

(Note: Some teams' projections have changed a bit compared to where they were in May, and it might not have anything to do with those factors above. I've also made a couple of tweaks to the SP+ formula itself.)

As always: SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren't intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.

On top of ranking all 130 FBS teams, Connelly's projection model also breaks down each conference individually.

Many believe Connelly's model is the most reliable system to monitor expectations on one of the most unpredictable sports in the world, especially during the transfer portal era.

Reminder: SP+ had Michigan in the top 10 after Week 2 last season despite the AP Polls taking weeks to rank the Wolveirnes near that mark.

Here is everything we learned about the Big Ten from the SP+ projections.

The Nittany Lions are 13th in the SP+ preseason projections despite landing at 29th in the AP Poll.

Connelly alludes to Penn State senior quarterback Sean Clifford's health as its key to the season. If the uber-experienced signal caller can stay healthy, unlike last year, James Franklin's group will undoubtedly finish a top 15 team.

Many believe it'll be the defense that's the X-Factor for the team in Happy Valley, given the collection of future NFL talent on the roster.

However, the offense returns 69% of its production (38th nationally) from 2021 compared to 57% of the defense's production (98th).

There's no questioning the talent Penn State has on the defensive side of the ball regardless of the returning production numbers, which is something it has in common with Michigan, who will have another top flight defense in 2022 despite its 45% returning defensive production ranking 118th out of 130 teams.

So iff the offense is Penn State's strong suit, watch out. This team is balanced, dangerous, and overlooked.

Connelly's model also breaks down and projects conferences as a whole, ranking each group from first to last.

"SP+ is a team ranking, but it can tell us a lot about conference expectations, too."

In a shock to no one, the SEC is projected to be the best conference in college football once again. It seems like a pattern by now, doesn't it?

Want the good news? The Big Ten is second. The bad news? There's a monstrous differential between first and second.

The SEC has an average rating of 15.0. An average offensive rating of 34.4. An average defensive rating of 19.4. And an average returning production percentage of 65.6%. The conference ranks first in all but returning production, ranking second behind the AAC.

Meanwhile, the Big Ten's average rating is 9.4, its offensive rating ranks fourth (29.9), its defensive rating ranks second (20.5), and its returning production percentage ranks fifth.

What's telling is the Big Ten has a 6.4 differential from the first-place SEC and a difference of only 0.5 from the Big 12.

The ACC is at 6.0, 3.4 points behind the Big Ten, and the Pac-12 is at a shockingly low 3.4, exactly 3 times less than the Big Ten,

Iowa leads the way in the conference, ranking 27th in returning production. The Hawkeyes have the 24th-highest returning production on offense (75%) and the 53rd-highest on defense (68%).

Ohio State ranks 29th overall (offense: 53rd, defense: 28th).

Michigan State ranks 33rd overall (offense: 55th, defense: 31st).

Look no further than Illinois and Indiana if you want to watch teams around the league with roster overhauls.

The Hoosiers had a terrible season in 2021, and they're approaching this fall with the 107th-most returning production. Or, more simply, the 23rd-least out of 130 teams. They rank 110th (49%) on offense and 88th (59%) defensively.

Illinois (103rd) and Wisconsin (99th) aren't much better in that department. The Badgers are 105th on defense and 84th on offense.

The lack of returners may be a good thing for Illinois and Indiana.

But for Wisconsin, it may be a concern.

In the national projections, Michigan is sixth, which is two spots higher than their AP Poll ranking of eighth.

SP+ projects the Wolverines will be even with Clemson (tied for fifth). Both teams have a score of 21.4. The Tiger defense ranks first, but its offense ranks 39th.

Meanwhile, U-M ranks sixth offensively and 17th defensively, one of the most balanced teams in the projections.

Michigan ranks higher than Notre Dame (No. 7) by 0.4 points, Michigan State (No. 15) by 4.3, and 5.8 points higher than Wisconsin (No.17).

Ohio State (No. 3) is 8.3 points higher than the maize & blue despite only being three spots higher in the rankings.

The separation between OSU and Oklahoma (No. 4) is 7.2 points. The difference between the Buckeyes and Georgia (No. 2) is just 0.8. Alabama (No. 1) is 1.7 points higher than the Bulldogs.

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