ESPN's Bill Connelly is viewed as one of the masterminds in college football when it comes to analytics and advanced statistics, with outlets frequently citing his SP+ projections (defined below) he releases every year.

Connelly used his SP+ projections today to rank all 130 FBS (Football Bowl Subdivision) teams in college football heading into the 2021 season, with the Michigan Wolverines' program checking in at No. 23 overall.

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Connelly's projections had the Wolverines' offense sitting at No. 32 nationally and their defense at No. 27 in the country. These ranking may come as a surprise to some, especially after Jim Harbaugh's club suffered through a miserable 2-4 season in 2020.

The analytics expert expanded significantly on what all went into his projections. He said they are based on three primary factors — returning production, recent recruiting and recent history.

Connelly also expanded substantially on what his analytical ratings entail as a whole for those who aren't familiar with his SP+ projections.

"It's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency," he wrote. "I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

"SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is.

"It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football."

Michigan's No. 23 ranking checked in fifth among Big Ten teams, behind No. 4 Ohio State, No. 9 Wisconsin, No. 14 Penn State and No. 16 Iowa. No. 27 Indiana, No. 30 Nebraska, No. 31 Minnesota, No. 32 Maryland, No. 40 Purdue, No. 59 Michigan State, No. 75 Northwestern, No. 83 Illinois and No. 94 Rutgers made up the rest of the conference.

Connelly's national top five, meanwhile, contained plenty of familiar faces in No. 1 Alabama, No. 2 Clemson, No. 3 Oklahoma and No. 4 Ohio State, though Oregon at No. 5 came as a bit of a surprise.

Connelly then compared his rankings to those of the preseason top 25 his co-worker, Mark Schlabach, released one month ago, and expanded a bit on several notable differences.

Michigan unsurprisingly popped up as one of the teams the two differed on the most, with the Maize and Blue nowhere to be found in Schlabach's preseason top 25.

"SP+ is not giving up on Jim Harbaugh just yet," Connelly wrote when discussing why the the two ESPN workers differed on U-M. "His Wolverines finished 2-4 in 2020, and part of the reason they only fell to 33rd in the final rankings is that their rating was still propped up by preseason ratings because of the low game total.

"But the combination of strong recent history (they ranked between sixth and 13th in SP+ every year from 2015-19) and solid recruiting (11th in my recruiting rankings) propped them up just enough to squeeze into the top 25.

"You say you'll believe it when you see it? I concur. But at the very least, the Wolverines will be far more experienced at QB, in the skill corps and in the secondary."

It's hard to argue with anything Connelly pointed out as to why he's higher on the Maize and Blue than most, though the comment about the club being "far more experienced at QB" raises a few eyebrows.

U-M's starter is strongly expected to be either redshirt freshman Cade McNamara or freshman J.J. McCarthy, with the latter never having taken a collegiate snap. McNamara, on the other hand, has just one career start under his belt and only 71 pass attempts.

Michigan could potentially be a bit more experienced at quarterback than it was heading into 2020, but the position is nevertheless still expected to be one of the team's biggest question marks.

Connelly was spot on with his assessment of the Wolverines being significantly more experienced in the skill corps and secondary though. Grizzled veterans in junior wideout Ronnie Bell and redshirt sophomore running back Hassan Haskins fit the criteria for the former, and redshirt sophomore cornerback Vincent Gray, senior safety Brad Hawkins and sophomore safety Daxton Hill all fit the bill for the latter.

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