You can learn a lot about a game from the spread's movement before it.
No. 5 Michigan football will host No. 10 Penn State, both 6-0, this weekend, and Vegas continues to list the Wolverines as 7-point favorites after opening at 8.5.
At the time of writing, 71% of the money and 57% of the bets are on Penn State, according to The Action Network's interface. While most of the cash is on the road underdog, Michigan is still above a key number (6.5) at 7.
Typically, when you see that much money on one side, the line's movement can signify how Vegas sees the game playing out.
If this line gets down to 6.5, then it's clear that sharp money (AKA pro bettors) projects a less-than-one possession win for U-M, or an outright win for Penn State. We already know pros like the Nittany Lions as touchdown 'dogs or better.
If Vegas sees enough, oddsmakers will push this line more toward Penn State.
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Where will this line go from here?
Once Vegas gets word on injuries, game plans, etc., we could see a Thursday or Friday movement that signifies if oddsmakers learned anything significant about the game beforehand, apart from what pros are betting (they're not always right either).
If the line gets to 6.5 and pros buy the hook, we could see the line go back to 7. Something similar happened between TCU & Kansas in Week 6. There was a difference in that the favorite (TCU) was the away team, but the line's activity was similar, flirting with the 6.5 and swimming back to 7. Of course, the line closed at a touchdown, and the Horned Frogs won by 7.
If the line stays above 6.5 or swings in Michigan's direction, then the powers that be have faith in the Wolverines.
If the line continues to float between 7 & 6.5 without sudden movement on either side, then a push is entirely possible.
Or, Vegas is wrong, and so are the pros.
We'll see.
There's plenty to keep an eye on between now & Saturday morning.
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