Bracketology: Who Michigan Is Competing With For Tournament Seeding
Michigan Wolverines basketball (18-10, 9-8 Big Ten) is in the NCAA Tournament field, with three regular season games to play before the Big Ten Tournament in Indianapolis. The win at Purdue last Saturday all but punched U-M's ticket to the Big Dance.
Now, all focus is turned to what the Wolverines can do in their last three regular season games to improve their Big Ten Tournament seeding and where they will end up in the NCAA Tournament.
First, a close examination of where U-M stands ...
U-M is tied with Ohio State for 7th in the Big Ten. The Buckeyes currently own the tiebreaker, meaning the Wolverines would be the No. 8 seed in Indianapolis, if the tournament started today. The two teams won't be tied for long, as U-M plays Ohio State Sunday.
As far as the NCAA Tournament, ESPN bracket expert Joe Lunardi has U-M slated as a No. 5 seed, while CBS Sports' Jerry Palm has the Wolverines projected as a No. 7 seed. Losing to Wisconsin at home would've helped continue propelling them up the seed lines, but a loss keeps them firmly in the 5-7 range.
Today, U-M sits at No. 25 in the NCAA's NET Rankings (fourth highest in the Big Ten).
In addition to NET Rankings, a large factor that the selection committee takes into consideration is quadrant records, broken down by opponent's NET rank and where the game took place:
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
| Quad 1 | Quad 2 | Quad 3 | Quad 4 |
|---|---|---|---|
|
7-9 |
4-1 |
2-0 |
5-0 |
U-M's win at Purdue last Saturday qualified as a quad 1 win, and the loss to Wisconsin Thursday was also chalked up in that category, as a quad 1 loss. U-M's seven quad 1 wins is tied for the eighth-most nationally. The Wolverines are tied with Iowa State for having played the most quad 1 games (ISU is 4-12 in such contests).
To this point in the season, U-M has had the third-toughest schedule in the nation, according to Kenpom, meaning that just about every win has been quality, and there have been very few, if any, bad losses.
To put into perspective how tough the Big Ten is this year, 10 of the 14 teams in the conference rank in the top-36 in the NET. For context, the ACC has three teams in the top-36, the Big 12, SEC and PAC-12 have four and the Big East has five.
For the bigger picture, the challenging schedule means that the Wolverines have a chance to drastically improve their résumé just about every game — lots of upside.
Here's a look at U-M's best wins and worst losses on the year.
| Best Wins | Worst Losses |
|---|---|
|
Neutral vs. Gonzaga (3) |
at Minnesota (46) |
|
vs. Creighton (8) |
vs. Illinois (36) |
|
vs. Michigan State (13) |
at Illinois (36) |
|
vs. Iowa (29) |
at Iowa (29) |
|
at Rutgers (35) |
vs. Wisconsin (28) |
|
vs. Rutgers (35) |
vs. Penn State (26) |
A big-time positive for U-M is that every loss but one has been quad 1, with the exception of the home loss to Illinois, which is just outside of that threshold.
U-M could have used a few more wins in the Big Ten slate to this point, but the losses haven't made a huge dent on the résumé, again proving that the tough schedule provides for much upside, and not a lot of downside.
Rooting Guide
With U-M firmly in the tournament field, the question is, who does a Michigan fan root for and against the rest of the year?
U-M finishes with games at Ohio State (16 in NET), vs. Nebraska (189) and at Maryland (9). We've rounded up the other teams projected in the 4-8 range to give a look at their résumés and what those squads have coming up.
| Team | Proj. Seed - ESPN, CBS Sports | NET Rank | Quad 1 Record | Remaining Schedule (NET Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
St. Mary's |
9, 8 |
31 |
3-3 |
at Gonzaga (3) |
|
Arizona St. |
9, 8 |
45 |
5-6 |
at USC (44), vs. Washington (63), vs. Washington St. (119) |
|
LSU |
8, 9 |
33 |
4-7 |
vs. Texas A&M (117), at Arkansas (41), vs. Georgia (90) |
|
Illinois |
8, 7 |
36 |
5-7 |
vs. Indiana (56), at Ohio State (16), vs. Iowa (29) |
|
Florida |
8, 9 |
32 |
4-7 |
at Tennessee (69), at Georgia (90), vs. Kentucky (18) |
|
Texas Tech |
8, 10 |
20 |
3-9 |
vs. Texas (65), at Baylor (2), vs. Kansas (1) |
|
Butler |
7, 5 |
21 |
8-7 |
vs. DePaul (75), vs. St. John's (73), at Xavier (42) |
|
W. Virginia |
7, 5 |
17 |
5-7 |
vs. Oklahoma (49), at Iowa State (80), vs. Baylor (2) |
|
Marquette |
7, 6 |
24 |
5-8 |
vs. Seton Hall (15), at DePaul (75), at St. John's (73) |
|
Houston |
7, 8 |
23 |
2-4 |
vs. Cincinatti (53), at UCONN (66), vs. Memphis (62) |
|
Ohio State |
6, 6 |
16 |
5-8 |
vs. Michigan (25), vs. Illinois (36), at Michigan St. (13) |
|
Arizona |
6, 8 |
11 |
3-7 |
at UCLA (76), vs. Washington St. (119), vs. Washington (63) |
|
Iowa |
6, 5 |
29 |
7-7 |
vs. Penn St. (26), vs. Purdue (35), at Illinois (36) |
|
BYU |
6, 6 |
14 |
3-4 |
at Pepperdine (132) |
|
Michigan St. |
5, 5 |
13 |
6-8 |
at Maryland (9), at Penn St. (26), vs. Ohio St. (16) |
|
Colorado |
5, 6 |
22 |
7-4 |
at Stanford (30), at Utah (88) |
|
Wisconsin |
5, 7 |
28 |
8-7 |
vs. Minnesota (46), vs. Northwestern (177), at Indiana (56) |
|
Louisville |
4, 4 |
10 |
4-4 |
vs. Virginia Tech (85), at Virginia (51) |
|
Penn St. |
4, 4 |
26 |
7-5 |
at Iowa (29), vs. Michigan State (13) at Northestern (177) |
|
Auburn |
4, 4 |
27 |
3-2 |
at Kentucky (18), vs. Texas A&M (117), at Tennessee (69) |
|
Oregon |
4, 4 |
19 |
7-5 |
vs. California (136), vs. Stanford (30) |
Simply put, in addition to winning every game possible, U-M should be rooting against these teams so it can climb the seeding ladder. However, with U-M's tough schedule that includes opportunities for two quad 1 road wins, the Wolverines have the opportunity to boost their résumé even more than the other teams in this grouping, perhaps with the exception of just a few. The Big Ten Tournament gives the Wolverines even more of a chance to climb.
---
• Talk about this article inside The Fort
• Watch our videos and subscribe to our YouTube channel
• Listen and subscribe to our podcast on iTunes
• Learn more about our print and digital publication, The Wolverine
• Sign up for our newsletter, The Wolverine Now
• Follow us on Twitter: @TheWolverineMag, @Balas_Wolverine, @EJHolland_TW, @AustinFox42, @JB_ Wolverine, Clayton Sayfie and @DrewCHallett
• Like us on Facebook