Michigan (15-12) is a bubble team needing at least two wins in its final three to make the NCAA Tournament.
Following an eight-point loss to No. 20 Illinois in a miserable defensive effort that saw the Wolverines give up 93 points, they have their backs against the wall with the season's clock running out.
With Phil Martelli at the helm as Juwan Howard serves his suspension, Michigan's season-deciding three-game stretch includes three teams with a winning record in No. 24 Iowa, No. 25 Ohio State, and Michigan State.
To begin assessing U-M's chances at making the tournament, let's look at the potential scenarios and outcomes:
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Michigan makes the tournament if
- 2-1 finish: If Michigan wins two out of its final three games, it's expected to earn a bid to the NCAA Tournament. A first-round exit in the Big Tournament could make things interesting, but a ranked win, or two, should be enough.
- Big Ten Tournament Championship: Pretty simple here. Winning the Tournament Championship is an automatic bid. Michigan could go 0-3 or better and make it.
- Deep run in the Big Ten Tournament: If Michigan goes 1-2 in the final three, a run to the championship, or potentially the semifinals, could bolster its chances. A 2-1 finish with a run that deep should guarantee a bid.
Michigan doesn't make the NCAA Tournament if:
- It goes 0-3 and doesn't win the Big Ten Tournament
- It goes 1-2 and doesn't either win or make a deep run in the Big Ten Tournament
What the bracketologists are saying
Let's take a look at what some of college basketball's most trusted and credible bracketologists are saying about Michigan's chances ahead of Wednesday's night game.
ESPN: Joe Lunardi, John Gasaway
Michigan's position: In, Last Four Byes
Michigan's matchup: 11-seed vs. 6-seed LSU
Analysis: "The question for Michigan has become whether this team can preserve what brackets are forecasting as a No. 11 seed in the face of a brutal closing schedule. Two games into a run of playing four straight at home, the Wolverines are 1-1 after falling 93-85 to Illinois. Michigan State and Iowa are up next for acting coach Phil Martelli and his players, who have excelled at limiting Big Ten opponents to one shot. That attempt customarily occurs inside the arc, for Michigan has also demonstrated its ability to discourage 3-point tries." (updated Feb. 27) -- John Gasaway, ESPN
CBS Sports: Jerry Palm
Michigan's position: Out, First 4 Out
Michigan's matchup: N/A
Analysis: "North Carolina is far from safe, but that win over Michigan is keeping them ahead of Michigan with the cut line right between them." -- Jerry Palm, CBS
Bart Torvik, T-Ranketology
Michigan's position: In
Michigan's matchup: 10-seed vs. one of Michigan State, Iowa, Murray State, Iowa State
Analysis: Michigan is ranked 28th overall as of March 1 by Torvik.
NCAA, Andy Katz
Michigan's position: In
Michigan's matchup: 10-seed vs. No. 7 LSU
Analysis: Michigan is ranked No. 40 overall by Katz, putting it right on the border between being a 10- and 11-seed.
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