By The Numbers: How U-M Has Fared Against Sub-.500 MSU Teams Since 1969

The Michigan Wolverines’ football team is a heavy favorite to beat Michigan State this weekend (favored by as many as 24.5 points Thursday morning), after U-M crushed then-No. 21 Minnesota 49-24 last week and MSU lost at home to a Rutgers squad that had dropped 21 straight Big Ten games.

The phrase “the records can be thrown out the window” is often applied when heading into a rivalry game like this, indicating the matchup may not be as lopsided as some may think when a blowout is expected.

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Michigan was a heavy favorite heading into last year’s game as well. It played out exactly how many thought it would, with the Wolverines picking up an easy 44-10 win. The 34-point triumph was the sixth-largest margin of victory Michigan had recorded against MSU since World War II (1945), and the 15th biggest overall in a series that dates back to 1898 and has included 112 meetings.

The expectation amongst the Maize and Blue fan base is that the Wolverines will top last year’s 34-point win this time around, with some calling for a 40- or even 50-point victory.

Though rare, 50-point triumphs by Michigan in the series have been done four times before, with the most recent one occurring in 1947 (via a final of 55-0) by Fritz Crisler’s squad that went 10-0 and took home a national championship.

The largest margin of victory ever in the rivalry's history occurred in 1902, when Fielding Yost’s “Point-a-Minute” crew took home a 119-0 win over the Spartans in just 38 minutes of action.

Since legendary head coach Bo Schembechler took over the Wolverine program in 1969, the Maize and Blue have consistently taken down Spartan squads who concluded with a losing record (as this year’s is fully expected to), though bonafide blowouts have been rare.

Below is a closer look at how Michigan has fared in the 19 meetings (since 1969) it has had with an MSU club who finished its season below .500.

Michigan holds a 17-2 record in the matchups above, but has seen those 17 victories come by an average margin of just 19.3 points, which isn’t exactly clear-cut blowout material.

There have been some obliterations of subpar Spartan squads (49-3 in 2002, 42-0 in 1983, 42-10 in 1976, etc.), but the list includes several nail-biters as well. U-M’s 2004 and 2005 victories over Michigan State both came in overtime (triple overtime in the case of the latter), while Schembechler’s 1980 team barely scraped by a 3-8 MSU squad in Ann Arbor by a final score of 27-23.

The hatred and intensity Michigan State has brought to the rivalry throughout its history has usually fueled the Spartans’ play in the annual game, oftentimes keeping the score closer than expected and making up for a talent gap between the two clubs that has existed more times than not.

Mark Dantonio’s (2007-19) teams were especially good at this. His underdog Spartan squad nearly stole a win from a 9-4 Michigan club in 2007 (before losing 28-24), while his 3-9 2016 crew only lost by nine (32-23) to what was a 7-0, No. 2-ranked Wolverine group at the time.

MSU fans are now hoping first-year head coach Mel Tucker can give his players the same hatred and intensity on Saturday to at least keep the game close with the Maize and Blue.

1 Michigan State head coach in school history has beaten Michigan in his first year on the job — Nick Saban in 1995 by a final score of 28-25. Tucker is the 25th head coach in MSU history.

2nd Straight meeting between the two clubs in Ann Arbor, marking the first time that has happened since 1967-68. Michigan State, on the other hand, last had the luxury of hosting the Wolverines in back-to-back years in 2013-14.

2nd Consecutive meeting in which Michigan will host MSU at noon, after the two teams also kicked off at 12 p.m. ET last year. Prior to 2019, however, the two rivals had not met at noon in Ann Arbor since 2002.

7 Turnovers for Michigan State last week against Rutgers, marking the most for the Spartans in a single contest since they also had seven in a 43-36 win over Minnesota on Nov. 14, 1981. The Scarlet Knights forced 10 turnovers all of last season, which was tied for 127th in the country (out of 130 teams). Michigan forced two turnovers against Minnesota in last week’s opener.

14-4-1 All-time record for Michigan on Halloween. The last time the Maize and Blue played on All Hallows’ Eve was in 2015, when they picked up a thrilling 29-26 win at Minnesota.

45 Of the last 50 meetings between the two rivals have been won by the team who rushed for more yards. The program that gained more yards on the ground won all 26 meetings from 1969-94.

50 Degrees for a projected high on Saturday, along with nothing but sunny skies in Ann Arbor. There is just a 10 percent chance of precipitation and wind gusts expected to range from 10 to 15 miles per hour.

68.1 Completion percentage (15 of 22) for redshirt sophomore quarterback Joe Milton last week in his first career start. To compare, Shea Patterson completed at least 68.1 percent of his passes just twice in 13 games last season.

1953 Was the first year Michigan and Michigan State played for the Paul Bunyan trophy, with U-M holding a 38-27-2 advantage since then. The Maize and Blue have won 34 of the 50 games since 1970, however.

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