Michigan Wolverines football was ranked No. 14 in the land in the final installment of the College Football Playoff rankings last season, which was released before bowl games and the playoff. The Maize and Blue were ranked No. 18 in the AP Poll that came out following the national title game.
Entering the 2020 season, U-M is widely viewed as a top-25 ball club, including by Tom Fornelli of CBS Sports, who has the Wolverines at No. 13 in his preseason rankings. He laid out the reasons why he believes the Wolverines will once again be among the nation's best.
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Fornelli acknowledged that the perception of Jim Harbaugh's tenure at U-M is a bit different than the reality, pointing out the way in which he's elevated the Wolverines to a much higher level than they were at under former head coach Brady Hoke.
"It's been easier for people to focus on what Jim Harbaugh hasn't been able to do at Michigan since returning to Ann Arbor to take over at his alma mater," Fornelli wrote. "In his five seasons, he hasn't won a national title. He hasn't won the Big Ten, nor has he won the East division. Perhaps the most important thing he hasn't done in the eyes of many is beat Ohio State.
"What he has done, however, is raise expectations. Harbaugh's teams have gone 47-18. While not good enough for some, it's much better than the 46-42 mark Brady Hoke and Rich Rodriguez had during the seven seasons they were in charge. Harbaugh's teams have won at least 10 games in three of his five seasons, the first time the program has done that since a stretch from 2002 to 2006.
"Harbaugh would be the first to admit, however, that it's not enough, and there's more work to do heading into 2020."
Critical Games
Fornelli pegged five of U-M's game as being "critical," starting with the opener at Washington, if it is indeed played.
"You certainly can't argue that Michigan is playing a soft nonconference schedule considering its starting the season on the road against a strong Washington team," Fornelli wrote. "Considering all the new starters the Wolverines have to work in, and it might regret scheduling this game."
Within a four-week stretch, U-M will face Wisconsin (Sept. 26) and Penn State (Oct. 3) at home and travel to play at Minnesota (Oct. 17). Those three games will help determine what kind of season it is for the Wolverines in 2020.
"Wisconsin embarrassed Michigan in Madison last season, and the Wolverines will be looking for revenge in 2020," Fornelli began. "While it's not a divisional game, Michigan can't afford to lose to teams from the West if it wants to win the East.
"After nearly winning in Happy Valley last year, Michigan will hope to get the win [over Penn State] at home this season. Still, this game is in the middle of a tough stretch that begins with Wisconsin the week before and has a road trip to East Lansing the week after.
"Michigan has dominated the battle for the Little Brown Jug, but this year it will hit the road to face a Minnesota team coming off an 11-win season and looks set to have another strong season in 2020."
And finally, the regular season finale at Ohio State.
"Fairly or not, none of what happens in Michigan's first 11 games will mean much if it doesn't win this game," Fornelli said.
2020 Outlook
Like many, Fornelli believes the question marks and the lack of returning production make it a tough season to predict for U-M.
"It's hard to know how good Michigan can reasonably be in 2020," Forneli began. "While it sits at No. 13 in our preseason rankings, it's not crazy to think that the Wolverines will finish a lot lower than that at season's end. Nor is it crazy to think they could finish in the top 10.
"The most glaring concerns heading into 2020 are the lack of experience on this roster and a demanding schedule. There are only 11 returning starters, and nearly the entire offensive line is gone. From a production standpoint, Michigan's returning production ranks 125th of 130 teams by one metric. That means there are a lot of questions we don't have answers to yet."
The aforementioned tough schedule also adds to the murkiness of examining what the Wolverines could be in 2020.
"When you peruse the schedule, there aren't a lot of 'gimmes,'" Fornelli said. "Sure, Ball State and Arkansas State should be easy wins, and it's hard to imagine Rutgers will provide much of a threat. Both Purdue and Maryland should be wins in Ann Arbor, but both teams have enough talent to be capable of pulling off an upset. The other seven games will all be challenging."
But, with any challenge comes opportunity. The Wolverines have the chance to finally get over the top, winning a championship and beating Ohio State, and the new personnel U-M will has to count on may be the ones to do it.
"At the same time, an optimist can look at the situation and see a team entering the second year of a new offensive system," Fornelli wrote. "One that should be more familiar to all involved and that should lead to more consistent results. You could also argue that while Shea Patterson was efficient, he wasn't elite and that limited Michigan's offensive ceiling. Either [redshirt junior quarterback] Dylan McCaffrey or [redshirt sophomore] Joe Milton could conceivably raise this ceiling.
"The odds are that Michigan will finish the regular season somewhere around nine wins, and how the season is viewed will depend largely on who those nine wins came against."
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